Posters virtual: Thu, 7 May, 14:00–18:00 | vPoster spot 1b
We present a one-layer global energy balance climate model with highly parameterized radiation, convection, and large-scale atmosphere/ocean macroturbulence. Planetary heat content is parameterized by a 2D in latitude-longitude layer characterized by a temperature field and a uniform constant heat capacity. Radiation is parameterized by mean-annual zonal average top-of-atmosphere solar irradiance. Radiative heating and cooling are parameterized by a uniform constant albedo and Stefan-Boltzmann emission with uniform constant emissivity. Convection is parameterized by a temperature threshold for convection which restricts the layer from warming beyond the threshold, effectively cooling the layer. Macroturbulence is parameterized by 2D barotropic turbulence forced at small scales and damped by Rayleigh friction. Energy conservation is maintained by balancing the convective cooling of the layer with the turbulent kinetic energy forcing, resulting in tropical forcing, while the frictional loss of kinetic energy is balanced by frictional heating of the layer. The parameterized energy transforming processes are characterized by timescales, which, for Earth-like planets, are ordered as tradiation > tmacroturbulence > tconvection.
We investigate the model’s equilibrium climate state in terms of the meridional heat transport (MHT), the resulting zonally averaged temperature profile, and their fluctuations by simulating the system over many radiation times. For Earth-like parameters, despite the model’s extremely simplified dynamics, our simulations reveal a MHT profile comparable to the observed, annually averaged MHT on Earth, featuring a maximum in the mid-latitudes of approximately 5PW, a form of Bjerknes compensation.
How to cite: van Kan, A., Weiss, J., and Knobloch, E.: Global climate dynamics in a highly parameterized radiative-convective-macroturbulent energy balance model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18820, 2026.
Understanding the spatial distribution and intensity of climate-related hazards is essential for effective risk assessment and adaptation planning. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of climate hazard indices applied across all IPCC reference regions, using all the available CMIP5-driven regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 25 km resolution over the CORDEX domains, together with Euro-CORDEX simulations at 12 km resolution. The objective is to identify climate hazard hot spots through the formulation of a composite hazard index.
A subset of hazard indicators representing key climate extremes is selected. Temperature- and heat-stress–related hazards are characterized using TX90p (extreme maximum temperature), TN90p (extreme minimum temperature), and the NOAA Extended Heat Index (HI). Heavy precipitation and drought-related hazards are represented by RX1DAY (maximum 1-day precipitation), P99 (99th percentile of precipitation), and CDD (consecutive dry days).
The composite index integrates both the frequency and intensity of extremes and is computed at both regional and grid-point levels. A normalization approach is used to ensure comparability across regions with diverse climatic characteristics. Results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in hazard intensity, highlighting regions where multiple hazards converge and amplify overall risk. This framework enables systematic identification of global and regional climate hot spots, offering insights into areas that may face heightened climate stress under current and projected conditions. By providing a consistent, region-wide assessment of hazard exposure, this study aims to support comparative climate risk analyses and inform policy-relevant decision-making for climate adaptation and resilience strategies at multiple scales.
How to cite: Zazulie, N., Raffaele, F., and Coppola, E.: Global Hot Spots of Climate Extremes from Composite Hazard Indices, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21173, 2026.
How to cite: Thurler Rondon da Fonseca, J. F., Schertzer, D., da Silva Rocha Paz, I., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Analysis of Vector-Field Multifractal Cascades, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23043, 2026.
High-resolution climate projections are essential for climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation studies, particularly over regions with strong spatial heterogeneity such as Brazil. Although CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) provide valuable information on future climate change, their coarse spatial resolutions, typically ranging from 100 to 200 km, limit their direct application at regional and local scales. Statistical downscaling techniques offer computationally efficient alternatives to dynamical downscaling, but their relative performance and added value remain insufficiently assessed over Brazil.
In this study, we compare two statistical downscaling approaches applied to a subset of CMIP6 models previously evaluated by Bazanella et al. (2024) – 10.1007/s00382-023-06979-1 – and identified as skillful in representing Brazilian climate: (i) a bilinear interpolation method followed by percentile-to-percentile bias correction, and (ii) machine learning–based downscaling approaches. The original GCM outputs are interpolated to a common high-resolution grid of 10 km × 10 km using bilinear weights, providing a physically consistent reference framework. In parallel, ML-based models are trained using historical GCM predictors and high-resolution reference climate datasets to learn nonlinear relationships and generate high-resolution climate fields.
The performance of both approaches is evaluated for the historical period in terms of mean climatology, spatial patterns, and variability. Future projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are then analyzed to assess regional climate change signals and associated uncertainties. Results assess the extent to which ML-based downscaling provides added value relative to bilinear interpolation, particularly for variables with strong spatial heterogeneity, such as precipitation and temperature extremes, while also evaluating the ability of the approach to preserve the large-scale climate signals projected by the driving CMIP6 models. This comparative analysis provides insights into the applicability, robustness, and limitations of statistical and ML-based downscaling methods for regional climate assessments over Brazil.
How to cite: Jatobá Santos, D., Goracci, G., Alves Martins, M., and Schneider, R.: From bilinear interpolation to machine learning: a comparative assessment of statistical downscaling methods for CMIP6 projections over Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19471, 2026.
Reliable river discharge simulation generally relies on observed streamflow data for model calibration; however, such observations are often uncertain or unavailable in data-scarce regions, limiting the applicability of conventional hydrological models. This study presents a hybrid modeling framework that uses soil moisture as an alternative calibration variable to improve discharge simulations in the absence of reliable streamflow observations. The framework couples a two-layer version of the daily lumped MISDc (Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo) hydrological model with a Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), which is employed to enhance parameter calibration by exploiting soil moisture dynamics. The proposed approach is evaluated across three contrasting basins: Tahanaout in semi-arid Morocco, and Colorso (Italy) and Bibeschbach (Luxembourg) in temperate climates. Both in situ and ERA5-Land soil moisture datasets are used as calibration inputs. Model performance is assessed using multiple hydrological metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and the correlation coefficient (R). Results show that the hybrid MISDc-FFNN framework substantially improves river discharge simulations compared to the traditional model. Across all basins, MAE is reduced by up to 61%, KGE increases by more than 200%, and R improves by up to 87%, with consistent performance gains observed for both observed and reanalysis-based soil moisture. These findings demonstrate the potential of soil moisture driven calibration strategies to enhance hydrological modeling in data-scarce environments, offering a viable pathway for improved water resources assessment and flood risk management where discharge observations are limited or unreliable.
Keywords: Soil moisture; river discharge simulation; hydrological modeling; machine learning; ERA5-Land; data-scarce regions; feedforward neural network
How to cite: Ait Naceur, K., El Khalki, E. M., Brocca, L., Hadri, A., Jaffar, O., Rachdane, M., Simonneaux, V., Saidi, M. E. M., and Chehbouni, A.: Soil Moisture Based Calibration of a Hybrid Hydrological-Neural Network Model in Data Scarce Basins, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21830, 2026.
The energy cascade rate (ε) depicts the energy transfer in a turbulent system. In incompressible magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, ε is linked to the third-order structure function (Yaglom vector) via the Yaglom/Politano–Pouquet law in the inertial range. In this study, we compare three estimators of ε in anisotropic MHD turbulence: (1) the lag polyhedral derivative ensemble (LPDE) technique that reconstructs the divergence of the Yaglom vector via tetrahedral linear gradients; (2) a directional-averaged third-order estimator that evaluates the Yaglom vector along a finite number of lag directions and averages over solid angle; and (3) the Yaglom vector on 60 degree with respect to the mean magnetic field direction. To ensure a fair comparison in more realistic MHD turbulence, we emulate a multipoint virtual mission within anisotropic three-dimensional MHD simulations with a guide field B₀ along the z-axis. This work illuminates the reliable regime for LPDE and directional-averaging methods, and also tests whether 60 degree Yaglom vector is an accurate estimate of ε, providing practical guidance in both simulation and observational turbulence analysis.
How to cite: Gao, Z., Yang, Y., Jiang, B., and Pecora, F.: Anisotropic energy transfer rate quantified by LPDE and directional averaging methods in MHD turbulence, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15102, 2026.
Early laboratory experiments of shear flow by Thorpe (Thorpe, 2002) provided evidence of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI) billow interactions either due to misaligned adjacent billow cores or varying phases along the adjacent billow axes. Similar evidence has been found in the observations of tropospheric clouds, airglow, and Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) imagery data in the mesosphere. Initial High-Resolution Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) studies performed at Reynolds Number of 5000 (Fritts et al., 2021a, Fritts et al., 2021b) have demonstrated the that misaligned KH billow cores exhibit strong and complex vortex interactions inducing ‘Tubes and Knots’ (T&K) structures (Thorpe, 2002). These T&K structures were observed to accelerate transition to small-scale turbulence in contrast to previously known notable transitional mechanisms such as secondary KHI and convective instabilities emerging in individual KH billows. Also, the KHI T&K dynamics evidently yield intense turbulence dissipation rates contrasting that of secondary KHI and convective instabilities in billow cores.
More recent high-resolution imaging of OH airglow (Hecht et al., 2021) provide concrete evidence of KHI billows with wavelength ranging between 7-10 km modulated by atmospheric Gravity Waves (GWs) of dominant horizontal wavelengths ∼ 30km and oriented orthogonal to KH billow axes and propagate along the billow cores which result in apparent T&K dynamics rapidly driving KH billow breakdown. Similar evidence has been found in recent PMC imaging. This is the central theme of the idealized DNS discussed in this talk.
We conducted DNS studies to demonstrate the turbulence energetics of KHI billow interactions when subject to modulations due to monochromatic atmospheric gravity waves of small perturbation amplitudes and intrinsic frequency of N/5 (where N is the background Brunt-Vaisala Frequency). Preliminary analyses of our DNS results indicate that GW modes with modest amplitudes promote KHI billow misalignments resulting in complex multi-scale T&K dynamics fixed at specific GW phases. An increase in the GW amplitude resulted in noticeable reduction of KHI billow wavelengths further promoting KH billow misalignments. The resulting turbulence is expected to consist of broader scale ranges of intense turbulence dissipation rate and diffusivity.
References
[Fritts et al., 2021a] Fritts, D. C., Wang, L., Lund, T. S., and Thorpe, S. A. (2021a). Multi-Scale Dynamics of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities . Part 1 : Secondary Instabilities and the Dynamics of Tubes and Knots. pages 1–27.
[Fritts et al., 2021b] Fritts, D. C., Wang, L., Thorpe, S. A., and Lund, T. S. (2021b). Multi-Scale Dynamics of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities . Part 2 : Energy Dissipation Rates , Evolutions , and Statistics. pages 1–39.
[Hecht et al., 2021] Hecht, J. H., Fritts, D. C., Gelinas, L. J., Rudy, R. J., Walterscheid, R. L., and Liu, A. Z. (2021). Kelvin-Helmholtz Billow Interactions and Instabilities in the Mesosphere Over the Andes Lidar Observatory: 1. Observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(1):e2020JD033414. Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
[Thorpe, 2002] Thorpe, S. A. (2002). The axial coherence of Kelvin–Helmholtz billows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128(583):1529–1542. Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
How to cite: Doddi, A., Fritts, D., and Lund, T.: Rapid Turbulence Evolution Resulting from Stable Shear layer and Atmospheric Gravity Wave Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4129, 2026.
Deep rock masses have complex internal structures, which results in significant discreteness and blocky structures. With the increase in the depth of engineering construction and energy extraction, the unique pendulum-type waves emerge in deep blocky rock masses under the action of dynamic loads from mining and blasting, and they are characterized by low frequency, low velocity, large displacement amplitude and high kinetic energy, distinguishing them fundamentally from conventional seismic waves. Pendulum-type waves can induce alternating stress states of relative compression and separation within blocky rock masses, and may lead to rockburst disasters and even engineering-induced seismicity, thus posing great challenges to the safety of underground engineering such as tunnel construction and mining. In this paper, experimental research is conducted on the mechanical behaviors and typical characteristics of pendulum-type waves of multi-fractured blocky rock masses under static and dynamic loads. Firstly, the strength, deformation and failure mode were analysized based on uniaxial compression tests. The weak structural layers will significantly reduce the uniaxial compressive strength and enhance the ultimate deformation capacity of rock masses. Fractured rock masses have significant nonlinear deformation and may develop macroscopic fractures (vertical splitting failure, with the failure mode transitioning from brittle failure to ductile failure) at the stress level significantly lower than their uniaxial compressive strengths. Subsequently, based on the dynamic impact tests, the dynamic response, overall displacement, wave velocity and the mechanism of anomalously low friction were investigated, and the typical characteristics of pendulum-type waves, including the low frequency (177 Hz and 153 Hz in this experiment, which are much lower than the natural frequency of the rock itself), low velocity (about 900 m/s in this experiment, which is significantly lower than those of P-waves and S-waves), large displacement amplitude (it is more than two orders of magnitude larger than the deformation of an intact rock under an identical load) and high kinetic energy (The total kinetic energy accounts for 40% and 28% of the total energy in this experiment, which has its particularity and cannot be ignored) were quantitatively described. This study holds significant research importance for understanding the nonlinear waves in deep fractured rock masses and their dynamic behaviors, as well as for preventing and controlling engineering disasters in deep rock masses.
How to cite: Jiang, K., Qi, C., and Hu, X.: Research on the mechanical behaviors of multi-fractured blocky rock masses, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5765, 2026.
Acoustic emission (AE) monitoring is widely applied to track damage development in brittle rock, although relating recorded signals to specific fracture mechanisms can remain uncertain, particularly when comparing thermal and mechanical loadings. This contribution presents a preliminary assessment of AE waveform characteristics measured during two heating-only experiments and two uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) experiments performed on 100 mm diameter basalt specimens containing a central axial circular hole. This geometry provides a consistent configuration that promotes stress redistribution and damage localisation around an opening, allowing fracture processes to be compared within a common specimen form.
Full AE waveforms were acquired throughout each test using broadband piezoelectric sensors coupled to the specimen surface, with pre-amplification and digital acquisition. Event features were extracted in the time and frequency domains, including rise angle, duration, hit counts, average frequency, peak frequency, peak amplitude, and amplitude distributions. Feature-space comparisons were then used to evaluate whether thermally and mechanically induced microfracturing exhibit separable signal characteristics.
The thermal experiments were associated with a single dominant fracture initiating along the shortest ligament between the aperture boundary and the nearest specimen edge. In contrast, UCS loading produced a more complex fracture network consistent with mixed tensile and shear microfracturing. Rise angle versus hits per duration plots indicated that thermal events occupied a more restricted region, whereas UCS events displayed a broader spread, which may reflect greater variability in source processes during complex damage evolution. Frequency-based comparisons further highlighted the differences: thermally induced events clustered mainly within a lower-frequency band (approximately 100-300 kHz), while the UCS tests exhibited an additional higher-frequency population (approximately 400-600 kHz), alongside the lower-frequency component. Amplitude distributions were also differed, with thermal events tending toward a narrower amplitude range relative to the wider distribution observed under UCS loading. Collectively, these observations suggest that the combined time-domain, frequency-domain, and amplitude-based AE features support mechanism-informed discrimination between thermally driven tensile fracture and mechanically driven complex fracture networks providing a basis for subsequent statistical or learning-based classification in coupled thermomechanical experiments
How to cite: De Alwis, A., Serati, M., Dyskin, A., Pasternak, E., Martin, D., and Williams, D.: Waveform signatures of acoustic emission from thermally and mechanically induced microfracture in centrally apertured basalt, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8596, 2026.
Block elbowing, the process in which rotating blocks push neighbouring blocks apart, influences both geological deformation and the stability of mining excavations in blocky rock masses. A clearer understanding of elbowing is essential for improving rock mass modelling and maintaining the safety of engineering structures. To this end, we analyse a chain of stiff blocks connected by springs, with one or two end active (driving) blocks – the blocks whose rotation is externally induced. All other - passive blocks - have translational and rotational degrees of freedom. The results show that block rotation is sequential (starting from driving blocks) producing a rotational wave with strongly configuration-dependent rotational patterns.
Opposite to a single driving block system, a double-driving block system exhibits more complex behaviour, as the active blocks may rotate in the same direction (Case I) or in opposite directions (Case II). In Case I passive blocks can exhibit anticlockwise rotation that is opposite to the clockwise rotating driving blocks, while in Case II all passive blocks do not rotate at all.
Further deformation patterns arise from block geometry, introduced by varying block corner rounding to represent spheroidal weathering. The results reveal a transition from reversible to irreversible passive block kinematics. Reversible responses include either clockwise rotation followed by full recovery or no rotation. The boundary between these types of block behaviour is defined by a linear relationship between the active-passive and passive-passive contact friction coefficients, with the intercept related to block corner rounding. In contrast, irreversible kinematics characterised by residual rotation emerge only for highly rounded blocks. This irreversible behaviour is restricted to short block chains and disappears in chains of five blocks suggesting a critical size of the Cosserat like zone with independent rotational degrees of freedom. This study provides new insights for modelling the stability and long-term evolution of blocky rock masses.
How to cite: Zhang, M., Dyskin, A., and Pasternak, E.: Non-linear rotational waves and complex rotation patterns in a chain of blocks with elbowing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8985, 2026.
The subject of this study is the process of hydraulic stimulation of a tectonic fault, leading to induced seismicity. We consider a scenario in which fluid injected near an existing fault, causing a localized change in pore pressure and a reduction in effective stresses. This, in turn, initiates slippage of the fault segments and the formation of a slip zone, the size and slip velocity of which determine the magnitude of the resulting seismic events. The goal of this study was to develop a relatively simple model for estimating the potential magnitude of induced seismic events based on a limited set of governing parameters. The primary objectives of the study were to identify the key factors that have the greatest impact on the characteristics of the slip zone and to determine how fluid injection parameters (rate and injected fluid volume) affect earthquake magnitude by changing slip dynamics. The model obtained is based on the results of a series of numerical experiments analyzing the hydromechanical behavior of the fault under various injection conditions. The modeling was performed using a two-parameter rate-and-state friction law, which, unlike a single-parameter model, allows for a wider range of slip regimes to be simulated and accurately describes the transition from stable slip to dynamic failure.
The functional relationships were established between the initial system parameters and the key obtained slip characteristics. It was shown that the final slip zone length is almost linearly related to the length of the initial unstable zone, and the maximum slip velocity increases exponentially with increasing pore pressure rate. At the same time, in the area of high loading rates, the saturation of the sliding velocity is observed at a characteristic level, which leads to a limitation of the possible magnitudes of earthquakes induced by fluid injection.
How to cite: Turuntaev, S., Baryshnikov, N., and Riga, V.: Estimation of potential magnitudes of induced seismic events based on direct numerical simulation of fluid injection near an active tectonic fault., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11339, 2026.
Groundwater is the second largest reserve of fresh water and is an important resource that supports agriculture, industrial and domestic water supplies. Groundwater is facing unsustainable impacts by human activities over the years in different forms. The situation is aggravated by climate change which aggravates groundwater stress through variable precipitation leading to reduced recharge. Thus, highlighting the importance of assessing aquifer potential for sustainable groundwater management. The analysis was carried out in the Manjra and Maner sub-basins, of Godavari river basin, India where data-driven assessments remain limited. In this regard, the present research employs a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework that integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to define groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) in the Manjra and Maner sub-basins. In a GIS environment, eight thematic layers—geology, land use/land cover, lineament density, drainage density, rainfall, soil, and slope—were examined. These factors were weighted using AHP, and combined using weighted overlay analysis. Area under the Curve (AUC), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and groundwater inventory data were used to validate the final GWPZ map. Five classifications of groundwater potential were identified for the research area: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The research region's predominance of moderate (45%) to high potential (28%) zones suggests that groundwater availability is generally fair to good. Priority locations for sustainable groundwater development and management are indicated by the high and very high potential zones.
How to cite: Belluti Nanjundagowda, P. and Vema, V. K.: A Geospatial and AHP-Based Approach for Delineating Groundwater Potential Zones in Vulnerable Groundwater Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5098, 2026.
Scour, defined as the erosion or removal of sediment from around bridge piers due to flowing water, remains one of the primary causes of hydraulic structure failures worldwide. Local scour around bridge piers poses a serious threat to bridge stability, particularly during high-flow events, as the development of downflow, horseshoe vortices, and wake vortices at the pier base leads to intense sediment removal and foundation instability. To address this challenge, the present study investigates the hydrodynamic behaviour and scour reduction performance of tapered submerged vanes installed upstream of a cylindrical bridge pier as an effective countermeasure against local scour. A combined numerical and experimental approach was adopted to evaluate the influence of tapered submerged vanes on flow structure and scour characteristics. Numerical simulations were carried out using FLOW-3D Hydro to analyse the three-dimensional flow field around the pier–vane system under steady clear-water conditions. The simulations focused on assessing velocity distribution, near-bed shear stress, vortex dynamics, and secondary flow patterns generated by the tapered vanes. Particular attention was given to the formation of leading-edge vortices (LEVs) and their role in modifying erosive flow structures near the pier foundation. Based on the numerical insights, a series of physical model experiments were conducted in a laboratory flume to quantify the scour reduction achieved by the tapered vanes. The experiments aimed to optimize the longitudinal and transverse placement of the vanes relative to the pier. The vanes were installed at a fixed longitudinal distance upstream of the pier, while transverse spacing was systematically varied to examine its effect on sediment transport and scour depth. Bed elevation profiles and maximum scour depths were measured after equilibrium scour conditions were attained. The results demonstrate that tapered submerged vanes significantly alter the near-bed flow field by generating localized leading-edge vortices that effectively deflect high-energy flow away from the pier base. This flow redirection weakens the horseshoe vortex and reduces near-bed shear stress in the vicinity of the pier. Among the tested configurations, the vane arrangement with a longitudinal spacing of 1.5D and transverse spacing of 2D exhibited the best performance, resulting in a 56% reduction in maximum scour depth compared to the no-vane case. Additionally, localized sediment deposition was observed upstream and downstream of the pier, indicating favourable redistribution of sediment induced by the vane-generated secondary currents. By integrating numerical modelling with experimental validation, this study provides valuable insights into the flow mechanisms and optimal placement strategies of tapered submerged vanes. The findings highlight their potential as a practical, efficient, and sustainable solution for mitigating local scour around bridge piers in alluvial channels.
Keywords: Scour, Submerged Vane, Horseshoe Vortices, Wake Vortices, Leading-Edge Vortex (LEV)
How to cite: Karmishtha, K., Behera, R. K., and Singhal, G. D.: Performance of Tapered Submerged Vanes in Mitigating Local Scour Around Bridge Piers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4200, 2026.
Socio-economic drought represents the stage at which water stress translates into tangible disruptions to livelihoods, infrastructure, and economic systems, often preceding severe physical water shortages. In India, pronounced climatic variability combined with extreme physiographic heterogeneity leads to strong spatial contrasts in socio-economic vulnerability to drought. Despite this, most drought assessments in the country remain dominated by hydro-meteorological indicators, with limited integration of socio-economic exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
This study develops a spatially explicit socio-economic drought risk assessment framework for India by integrating multi-dimensional climatic, environmental, and socio-economic indicators within a Geographic Information System (GIS). Thirteen indicators capturing water availability, agricultural productivity, infrastructure, population pressure, economic activity, and social deprivation are compiled from multi-source datasets and harmonized to a common spatial resolution. The indicators include available soil water, agricultural yield, livestock density, road density, population density, biomass, electricity consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), global surface water availability, digital elevation model, groundwater availability, land use/land cover, and relative deprivation. Indicator weights are objectively derived using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), with consistency of expert judgments ensured through the consistency ratio criterion (CR < 0.1). A GIS-based weighted overlay approach is then employed to generate a composite socio-economic drought risk index, which is classified into four risk categories to identify spatial patterns and hotspots.
The resulting risk map reveals pronounced regional disparities, highlighting drought-prone agrarian and socio-economically marginalized regions as areas of elevated risk. The proposed framework offers a transferable and scalable decision-support tool for integrating socio-economic dimensions into drought monitoring and preparedness. By explicitly linking water stress to livelihood and infrastructure vulnerability, the study provides actionable insights for risk-informed planning, targeted mitigation, and long-term drought resilience in India.
How to cite: Beerkur, A. K. and Palagiri, H.: A Multi-Criteria GIS Framework for Socio-Economic Drought Risk Assessment across India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4184, 2026.
The Piano Key Weir (PKW) has earned recognition for its adaptability for large discharges across weir types of varying heights and with small footprints. Therefore, it has the potential to be a substitute for linear weirs (space being a factor), Ouamane and Lempérière, (2006). Even with the above-mentioned advantages of PKWs, other geometries leave much to be desired. The rectangular PKW and the trapezoidal PKW illustrate a most common inefficiency example. Standard literature describes construction and operational shortfalls such as flowing separation at the inlet key, varying discharge and uneven velocities along the crest, vortex shedding and formation at the key intersections, dead zones in the inlet-outlet, zones of intensified energy dissipation, and lowering weir versatility at high flows. These challenges are combined to mean loss of efficiency in weir discharge capability. In response to these challenges, the present study introduces the Modified Piano Key Weir (MPKW) to assess its performance using 3D computational hydraulic modeling. The Volume of Fluid (VOF) methodology for free surface tracking and the Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) for turbulence closure modeling characterize pressure gradients, flow accelerations in the several dimensions, and eddies. A systematic numerical investigation was conducted to compare the discharge efficiency of RPKW, TPKW, and MPKW across a range of steady inflow discharges: 0.030, 0.060, 0.090, 0.120, and 0.160 m³·s⁻¹. The MPKW demonstrated consistently superior discharge efficiency over both RPKW and TPKW for all tested cases, without requiring an increase in structural footprint or crest length. The highest relative improvement was observed at 0.060 m³·s⁻¹, which was therefore selected as a representative discharge for in-depth flow diagnostics. Discharge at 0.060 m³·s⁻¹ was applied to determine vorticity structures, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and energy dissipation to better understand the flow mechanisms that explain the efficiency of the weir. The MPKW design, with refined geometry and improved inlet–outlet design, rounded key transitions, and adjustable wall skew, was successful in mitigating flow separation at the key inlets and reducing the large-scale vortex formation at the key junctions. The modified sidewall skewed the internal recirculation, and as a consequence, TKE in the stagnation zones was less, and recirculation was more along the crests of the weir, thereby nullifying turbulent structures. While the breakdown of turbulence resulted in localized energy dissipation, the stabilization of the approach flow was improved because the process converted rotational energy of large eddies with a low energy loss to rapidly decaying eddies which do not sustain and produce a recycling of energy. Thus, less energy was concentrated in the vortex cells at the key junctions, the loss due to flow contraction was less, and the nappe cohesion over the crests was improved. MPKW, relative to other configurations, was characterized by a lower level of turbulence and vorticity at the junctions, a greater effective utilization of the crest, and improved pressure recovery. The results confirm MPKW as a hydraulically efficient and economically feasible solution for both new installations and retrofit applications under head or footprint constraints.
How to cite: Kumar, A., Padhi, E., and Mishra, S. K.: CFD-Based Comparative Analysis of Conventional and Modified Piano Key Weirs for Improved Discharge Efficiency, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4951, 2026.
Predictability of river bank erosion in sinuous alluvial channels requires a combined study of the planform processes, hydraulics processes, sediment transportation, and the geotechnical properties of riverbanks. The research paper provides a detailed analysis of the evolution of channels within the Nabadwip-Kalna stretch of the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River (1990-2020). This analysis combines the synthesis of remote sensing, on-field surveys, lab experiments, and numerical model analysis into a multidimensional analysis. GIS was used through the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to measure changes on the bank-lines using historical satellite images of the same period of time. A two-dimensional migration coefficient (MC) model was used to model spatial-temporal changes in channel centrelines, and an RVR Meander was used to develop a model that takes into consideration depth-averaged flow velocity and reach-averaged hydraulic parameters. The characterisation of cross-sectional bathymetry and near-bank hydraulics was based on ADCP. The results of the geotechnical analysis showed that stratified streambanks showed critical shear stresses of 7.1-7.7 kPa, internal frictional angles of soils less than 30°–34°, and were predominantly affected by either cantilever collapse or piping as a result of varying maximum heights of streams between 5.7 and 6.8 metres. Bank stability through both BSTEM and BEHI was assessed, whereas sediment forecasting combined with SWAT to predict overbank flow and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to estimate the total load. DSAS analysis on bank-line displacement revealed different erosion patterns within 170 transects, showing different RMSE of 0.090 to 0.162 in predicting zone boundaries. The MC method was able to model the 24-year centreline migration patterns, recording changes in the centreline-geometry parameters. Analysis of five cross-sections instrumented found instability and a factor-of-safety ratio of 0.81-0.95, resulting in 4.07-5.85m/yr and 4.35-7.15 km2/yr, respectively, lateral retreat and the eroded areas. Mean collapse rates were 0.125 to 0.198 m/yr, and the failure angle was 81°–87°. The maximum bank-failure mass was 41.24 kg (seasonal maximum), and the calibrated toe-scour mass was 0.28 kg. The GA model was tried using ten parameterisations and demonstrated the best prediction ability with the coefficient set at ten, where R2 = 0.96 and mean relative error (MRE) = 42% gave significantly better performance than the traditional regression analysis (R2 = 0.87 and MRE = 40%). There were also considerable changes in the area behind sandbar dynamics, that is, Nandai-Hatsimla increased by 11.87 ha in 1990 to 19.05 ha in 2020; Media by 39.7 ha to 57.68 ha; Char Krishnabati by 82.52 ha to 81.07 ha. Land-use/land-cover (LULC) predictions for 2040 indicated settlement expansion from 13.61% (2020) to 20.19%, with validation accuracy (RMSE = 0.253) confirming model reliability. This combined model shows that the combination of remotely sensed, field, laboratory, and model data provides quantitatively sound estimations of fluvial risks and forms the basis of evidence-based management of high-suspended riverine areas. The modular design can be applied to monsoon-dominated alluvial basins throughout the globe, which will promote adaptive land-use planning and long-term infrastructure development in the vulnerable riparian societies.
How to cite: Ghosh, A.: Unveiling integrated geo-hydraulic assessment of river meandering, bank erosion and sandbar dynamics in Alluvial channels, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7917, 2026.
Rising flooding, which is exacerbated by both climate change and human behavior, demands proper identification of vulnerable zones. Conventional hydrological analysis can neglect geographical variability. In this study, a combined geospatial and decision-making process is used to determine the levels of vulnerability and risk of flooding in the Koshi River Basin in the state of Bihar. The research work has developed a susceptible, vulnerable and risk map by integrating GIS, Remote Sensing and AHP. Weightings of eleven physical and hydrological factors and five socio-economic indicators were carried out in a systematic manner using a multi-criteria decision-making framework that allowed appropriate consideration of their relative contributions to flooding. Flood susceptibility, vulnerability and risk maps were created using the GIS environment's Weighted Overlay technique. According to the analysis, population density (41.6%) and literacy rate (24%) are controlling factors for flood vulnerability in the basin, whereas rainfall (23.9%), elevation (14.7%) and drainage density are the main elements that influence flood susceptibility. The Koshi basin is largely covered by the low and moderate classes of flood susceptibility, whereas a very minor amount (0.03%) comes under the high susceptibility classes, according to results from flood susceptibility maps. A significant section (42.87%) of the basin has moderate flood susceptibility due to a combination of exposure and socioeconomic characteristics, according to the results of the flood vulnerability analysis. According to the flood risk results, a significant amount of the basin (84.18%) has moderate flood risk, while a tiny portion has high flood risk in the low-lying, heavily inhabited areas close to the basin's riverbanks. ROC-AUC for model validation yielded an accuracy of 66.3% and proved that the proposed GIS-AHP model was a reliable. Conclusion from this study underscore an integrating role in both physical and socio-economic considerations with prospects of enhancement through climate scenarios in flood mitigation and planning/early warning maps.
How to cite: Chaudhary, P. and Padhi, E.: Flood Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment of Koshi River, Bihar (India) using Remote Sensing, GIS and AHP Techniques , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8975, 2026.
Partial blockage in open channels and urban drainage systems is a common issue arising from debris accumulation, sediment deposition, and inadequate maintenance, often resulting in reduced flow capacity and increased flood risk. Despite its practical relevance, the hydraulic effects of partial blockage on flow behaviour are not well quantified through controlled experimental studies. This work aims to investigate the influence of partial blockage on flow characteristics in open channels and explore its implications for urban stormwater drainage systems.Laboratory experiments are carried out in a rectangular open-channel flume under steady flow conditions. Velocity measurements are obtained at multiple depths for unblocked conditions and for different partial blockage configurations. Blockages of varying size and location are introduced manually to represent realistic obstructions commonly observed in urban drains. The changes in velocity distribution, water depth, and flow-carrying capacity due to partial blockage are analysed to understand the hydraulic response of the system.
Based on these observations, relationships between blockage extent and hydraulic performance are developed to identify critical blockage conditions.The study framework is applied to urban stormwater drainage networks using SWMM modelling to extend the experimental findings to real-world applications. Blockage scenarios are simulated in selected channels to assess their impact on system performance and flooding behaviour.
The outcomes of this study provide experimental insight into blockage-induced hydraulic effects and highlight the importance of considering partial blockage in urban drainage analysis. The combined experimental and modelling approach offers a practical basis for improving flood risk assessment and maintenance planning in urban stormwater systems.
How to cite: Mishra, A. K., Kumar, H., and Vinnarasi, R.: Assessment of Partial Blockage in Urban Drains for Flood Risk Reduction , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8813, 2026.
Efficient water use in agriculture is crucial for sustainable water resource management, especially in areas experiencing increasing water scarcity. A critical yet often oversimplified component of irrigation planning is the estimation of water storage soil profile depth, commonly assumed to be 1-1.5 m as the root-zone depth based on practitioner experience rather than validated soil-water dynamics. Such assumptions introduce uncertainty and limit the reliability of irrigation scheduling decisions. This study presents a novel framework for estimating soil profile depth to store maximum water by integrating Richards’ equation, geotechnical soil column concepts, and the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) technique to derive an optimal soil profile depth that maximizes storage capacity based on measurable hydraulic and retention soil properties. By linking the water storage soil column depth with the SCS-CN parameter, for practical field applications such as irrigation scheduling and planning. The proposed framework improves model reliability and interpretability by replacing fixed-depth assumptions with soil-specific storage behaviour, thereby reducing uncertainty in irrigation water estimation. It enables consistent evaluation of field capacity, average soil moisture content, and maximum storage potential across soil types, leading to improved irrigation efficiency. By emphasizing physically constrained model selection, data-informed parameterization, and transparent decision-making metrics, this work enhances the reliability of hydrologic modeling and supports robust irrigation management under water-scarce conditions.
Keywords: Water storage soil profile depth, Richards’ equation, Irrigation water management, Data-informed parameterization, SCS-Curve Number method.
How to cite: Sharma, D., Mishra, S. K., and Pandey, R. P.: From Empirical Assumptions to Data-Informed Decisions: A Reliable Water Storage Soil Depth Estimation Method, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13831, 2026.
Digital elevation models (DEMs) play a fundamental role in hydrological modeling by controlling watershed delineation, stream networks and runoff generation processes. This study assess the impact of global DEM product provided by Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SRTM and the Indian national CartoDEM developed by ISRO-Bhuvan (Indian Space Research Organisation-Bhuvan) on streamflow simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Ong River watershed (4650 sq. km), India. The study area is characterized by forest and cropland. Both DEMs, resampled to 30m resolution, were used as inputs to SWAT, along with meteorological data (IMD), land use/land cover data (Sentinel-2), and soil data (FAO). Streamflow data was sourced from Global Flood Awareness System discharge data (GloFAS). Model calibration (2011-2017) and validation (2018-2020) were performed using SWAT-CUP with the SUFI2 algorithm. Model performance was evaluated using Willmott's index of agreement, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), R², PBIAS, and RSR. Results showed that both DEMs performed satisfactorily, with CartoDEM exhibiting slightly better performance (higher NSE and R², lower PBIAS and RSR) during both calibration and validation periods. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the runoff curve number was the most sensitive parameter, highlighting the impact of DEM selection on surface runoff simulation. The study concluded that CartoDEM is a preferable choice for hydrological modeling in similar catchments, though further research on stream accuracy and catchment delineation in diverse topographies can be explored.
How to cite: Prashant, P., Kumar Mishra, S., and Kumar Lohani, A.: Assessing the Impact of Digital Elevation Model Selection on Hydrological Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16403, 2026.
Accurate prediction of sediment mobility in open channel flows is essential for effective river engineering and sediment management. This study examines the combined influence of flow depth and sediment grain size on near bed hydraulics and sediment mobility using high-resolution Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) measurements in a controlled laboratory flume. Experiments were conducted over uniform sand beds with median grain sizes of d₅₀ = 0.321 mm and d₅₀ = 0.81 mm under four different flow depths (12cm, 15cm,18cm,21cm) and a range of flow velocities. Three dimensional velocity components were measured at multiple vertical locations throughout the flow depth, while water surface elevations were continuously monitored. Depth resolved ADV data were used to compute mean streamwise velocity, Reynolds shear stress, friction velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy for each sediment size and flow depth. Sediment mobility was assessed using the Shields parameter, estimated from ADV-derived bed shear stress, and compared with the critical Shields parameter at multiple velocity points for each depth. The results indicate that coarser sediment beds exhibit increased near-bed turbulence intensity and higher friction velocity across all flow depths, while yielding lower Shields parameter values relative to finer sediment beds. Comparisons across the four flow depths reveal that sediment mobility transitions from stable to mobile conditions depending on the combined effects of flow depth, sediment size, and local velocity magnitude. At lower velocities, Shields parameter values remain below the critical threshold, indicating stable bed conditions, whereas higher velocities at the same depth result in Shields values exceeding the critical limit, signifying active sediment motion. Depth wise velocity and turbulence profiles demonstrate that both flow depth and sediment roughness significantly modify near-bed hydraulic structure and bed shear stress distribution. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for depth-dependent flow structure and sediment characteristics when evaluating sediment mobility. This study provides a robust experimental framework for identifying stable and mobile sediment regimes and estimating sediment transport potential using high-resolution ADV measurements without direct sediment transport observations.
How to cite: Banothu, J. and Devi, K.: Effects of Flow Depth and Sediment Size on Near Bed Hydraulics and Sediment Mobility in Open Channel Flow, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18007, 2026.
Urban flooding poses a growing challenge for rapidly urbanizing cities, where climate change–driven increases in extreme rainfall, expanding impervious surfaces, and limited drainage capacity collectively exacerbate the frequency and severity of surface water inundation. In this context, understanding urban surface flood resilience, defined as the capacity of stormwater drainage systems to withstand, convey, and recover from intense rainfall events, remains essential for effective flood risk management and climate adaptation planning. The present study investigates urban surface flood resilience in Janakpur Sub-Metropolitan City, Nepal, a fast-growing urban center increasingly exposed to pluvial flooding. The study develops an integrated modelling framework using a 3-way coupled MIKE+ hydrodynamic model, integrated with intense spatial analysis using GIS, to evaluate the performance of the existing stormwater drainage system under extreme rainfall conditions. The model represents the urban drainage network and surface flow processes using drainage infrastructure data obtained from field surveys, terrain information derived from a high-resolution digital elevation model, and delineated urban catchments. To characterize rainfall extremes, the analysis employs long-term observed hourly rainfall records spanning 25 years to generate design storm events corresponding to multiple return periods. The modelling framework simulates system response for a representative extreme rainfall event and quantifies inundation dynamics across the urban landscape. The results shows that the coupled approach effectively captures critical flood hazard characteristics, including inundation depth, flow velocity, and the depth–velocity product, allowing for the spatial identification of highly vulnerable catchments and drainage bottlenecks. The findings provide actionable insights into the limitations of existing stormwater infrastructure and support the development of targeted adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing urban surface flood and drainage resilience. Overall, the study underscores the value of integrated hydrodynamic modelling for resolving location-specific flood behaviour and strengthening urban flood resilience assessments under evolving climatic and urbanization pressures.
How to cite: Singh, P., Deopa, R., and Mohanty, M. P.: Assessing urban surface flood resilience using hydrodynamic modelling under extreme rainfall conditions in urban catchment of Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18481, 2026.
Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for various applications in hydrology and agricultural water management. However, direct observations of ET, specially its spatial variation, in time-consuming and cumbersome, thus necessitating the need to use of indirect methods for its estimation. In this study, stomatal conductance data is used in conjunction with bio-physical parameters of wheat crops for deriving the spatially varied estimates of ET (ETSC) for different irrigation treatments using the Penman-Monteith equation. For this, five treatments, including drip (DI) and flood (FI) irrigated treatments were used in the study, namely fully irrigated (DI)), 50% MAD (maximum allowable deficit) (DI), 50% MAD (FI), farmer fields replication (FI) and rain-fed treatment.
The ETSC estimates are also compared to the ET estimates derived using a method based on field water balance (ETWB). When compared with the ETWB values, the ETSC estimates compared well particularly for the irrigated treatments. The average root mean square error (RMSE) of ETSC estimates in comparison to ETWB values are 0.11, 0.2, 0.23 and 0.26 mm/day for fully irrigated, 50% MAD (FI), 50% MAD (DI) and farmers field replication treatments, respectively. The corresponding RMSE value (0.47 mm/day) for the rain-fed treatment are found significantly higher than the irrigated treatments indicating the limitation of the approach in high water stress conditions. The differences between ETSC andETWB values also increase significantly during the end-season stage when the wheat crop is close to maturity. Overall, the results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach in estimating the spatial variation of ET using the Penman-Monteith method in conjunction with the on-field field stomatal conductance observations.
How to cite: Upreti, H. and Yadav, M.: Evaluation of Penman-Monteith estimates of evapotranspiration derived using field-collected stomatal conductance observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20031, 2026.
Present-day practices of bridge piers design often employ group arrangements of piers in various configurations to modify flow dynamics and mitigate subsequent scour formation around the piers. These group arrangement configurations may vary in aspects of spacing ratio, number of piers, and orientations to alter the flow-structure interaction, and hence the scour development. Investigating the turbulent flow behaviour around various common group arrangements has been a topic of interest for researchers for a few years now. This study presents an experimental investigation aimed at comparing the equilibrium scour depth caused by various four-pier group arrangements. To assess the impact of spacing, the face-to-face distance between piers (G) was taken to values of D, 2D, and 3D, where D refers to the diameter of the circular pier. The scour patterns reveal that the maximum scour depth occurred when spacing G was equal to D. The equilibrium scour depth decreased with an increase in the pier spacing to 2D and 3D, corresponding to an approximate flow intensity of 0.9. The scour contours exhibit the impact of neighbouring piers and how it differs with an increase in pier spacing. Instantaneous velocity data were collected to derive the flow characteristics in the flow field. Velocity vectors depict the influence of different configurations on the flow pattern. The study provides an insight into the spacing effects on equilibrium scour, which can be useful in the design of pier group arrangements.
How to cite: Sahu, C.: Spacing Effect on the Equilibrium Scour and Flow Pattern around Four-Pier group in Different Configurations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22153, 2026.
