Posters virtual: Wed, 6 May, 14:00–18:00 | vPoster spot 4
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth’s climate system, and has been suggested to have multiple stable states. Critical slowing down (CSD) can detect stability changes in Earth system components, and has been found in sea-surface temperature (SST) based fingerprints of the AMOC. Here, we look for CSD in historical simulations from 27 models from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We calculate three different CSD indicators for the AMOC streamfunction strengths at 26.5°N and 35°N, as well as for a previously suggested SST-based AMOC index (ASSTI) based on averaging SSTs in the subpolar gyre region. No model shows CSD in the ASSTI, which is in marked disagreement with the real-world. This lack of CSD is reflected in the AMOC streamfunctions in most models, although individual ensemble members in some models do show signs of CSD even under a conservative significance calculation. We thus conclude that: 1) The historical AMOC in CMIP6 models is not losing stability, 2) studies of AMOC stability must consider an ensemble of realisations, 3) no other physical process in the 1850-2014 period causes signs of CSD in North-Atlantic SSTs, and thus the CSD in the observed ASSTI is likely a sign of a change in the AMOC. This final result suggests that observed changes in the ASSTI could indicate a loss of stability in the real-world AMOC.
How to cite: Ben Yami, M., Blaschke, L., Bathiany, S., and Boers, N.: No critical slowing down in the Atlantic Overturning Circulation in historical CMIP6 simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7797, 2026.
Temporary storage areas (TSAs) are a nature-based solution for attenuating flood peaks through the temporary detention of floodwaters in small (up to 10,000 m3) storage ponds on hillslopes or floodplains. Despite their increasing prevalence as part of Natural Flood Management (NFM) schemes in the UK, empirical evidence demonstrating their capability to mitigate flooding at catchment scales is limited. Addressing this evidence gap is a key priority for informing future flood risk management policies.
In this study, we intensively monitored a prominent NFM scheme in the Littlestock Brook, a lowland rural sub-catchment (6.4 km2) of the River Evenlode in England. Ten TSAs providing a combined 25,000 m3 of flood storage were implemented between 2018 and 2020 to protect a flood-prone settlement. Measurements of river discharge (5 min), TSA stored volume (5 min), and precipitation (10 min) enabled the filling and drainage dynamics of individual TSAs to be quantified. The monitoring period (2019-2021) captured several notable storm events, including one with an estimated return period of 1 in 37 years.
To quantify the aggregated impact of multiple TSAs on flood hydrographs at the catchment scale, observed TSA inflows and river discharge were used within a time-of-travel based hydrograph reconstruction approach to enable the estimation of downstream discharge in the absence of TSAs. Comparison of observed (with TSAs) and reconstructed (without TSAs) hydrographs indicate a 23% reduction in peak discharge for a 1 in 16-year return period storm. Furthermore, analysis of individual TSAs revealed substantial variation in storage utilisation and drainage during and after storms. These results provide quantitative evidence of how TSAs function both individually and in combination. The potential effectiveness of TSAs as a sustainable Natural Flood Management intervention will be discussed.
How to cite: Bishop, J., Old, G., Rameshwaran, P., Wade, A., Robotham, J., Gasca-Tucker, D., Berkeley, A., Old, J., and McKnight, D.: The effectiveness of Temporary Storage Areas for Natural Flood Management: Empirical evidence from a lowland catchment, UK, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8304, 2026.
In arid and semi-arid landscapes like many areas in Morocco, addressing water scarcity requires innovative nature-based solutions (NbS). Fog and Low Stratus (FLS) clouds constitute a major atmospheric feature in Morocco, simultaneously representing a significant hazard for air, maritime, and road transportation and a valuable nature-based water resource for arid and semi-arid ecosystems through fog-water harvesting. However, effective implementation of such NbS depends on precise identification of viable locations and optimal collection periods. In a country characterized by strong climatic heterogeneity and limited ground-based observations, satellite remote sensing provides a critical means for assessing the spatial and temporal availability of this underutilized water source under current and future climate variability. This study introduces a novel nighttime FLS detection algorithm specifically designed for Morocco’s diverse climatic regimes, using only infrared observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) SEVIRI instrument. Hourly satellite data spanning 2020–2024 were processed to produce the first high-resolution, national-scale climatology of FLS occurrence over Morocco. Designed for the region's heterogeneous climates, the tool provides essential monitoring for assessing NbS potential. The algorithm was systematically validated using coincident hourly SYNOP observations from the Moroccan Directorate General of Meteorology network. Validation results demonstrate reliable performance, with a probability of detection exceeding 54%, a false alarm ratio close to 45%, and a frequency bias generally within 1.4. The resulting climatology reveals two major coastal hotspots of persistent FLS occurrence along Morocco’s Atlantic façade, in the Northwest and Southwest, both exhibiting pronounced seasonal and diurnal cycles. These regions coincide with areas of high potential for fog-water harvesting, offering a climate-resilient, nature-based solution to enhance water availability in water-stressed environments. These findings directly inform hydrological planning by pinpointing areas where fog harvesting projects are most likely to be effective and resilient. By providing spatially explicit and operationally robust information on FLS occurrence, this study supports the integration of satellite-based monitoring into the planning and upscaling of fog-water harvesting systems. The results contribute to broader NbS strategies aimed at improving water security, supporting ecosystem services, and strengthening climate adaptation in arid and semi-arid landscapes.
How to cite: Mouhtadi, A., Bari, D., and Mordane, S.: A Satellite-Based Climatology of Fog and Low Stratus to Support Nature-Based Water Harvesting in Arid Areas of Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6983, 2026.
Coastal cities in fragile and conflict-affected states face unprecedented challenges in maintaining infrastructure and protecting ecosystems. In Sudan, Port Sudan has recently emerged as the temporary administrative capital, experiencing rapid urban pressure alongside heightened climate vulnerability. This research evaluates the integration of Nature-based Coastal Solutions (NBCS), such as coral reef and mangrove preservation, into the city’s urban recovery framework. Utilizing GIS and satellite-based geoscience monitoring, the study assesses the current state of coastal assets and their protective capacity. A major barrier to implementing these solutions is the financing gap and high perceived risk in fragile economies. This study explores innovative financial frameworks, specifically the role of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) in providing 'patient capital' and de-risking investments for sustainable coastal infrastructure. By combining interdisciplinary financial modeling with environmental assessment, the research proposes a strategic roadmap for financing resilient coastal protection. The findings demonstrate that NBCS can significantly reduce infrastructure restoration costs while serving as a vital catalyst for long-term economic stability and post-conflict recovery.
Final results, including a detailed comparative cost-benefit analysis and quantified financial projections, will be presented at the conference. This will provide a rigorous evidence-based framework for integrating Nature-based Solutions into Port Sudan’s post-conflict urban recovery.
How to cite: Ahmed, M.: Resilient Recovery: Financing Nature-based Coastal Solutions for Port Sudan’s Urban Infrastructure., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2636, 2026.
Mangrove forests provide critical shoreline protection in tropical and sub-tropical regions through wave attenuation, soil accretion and floodwater storage. These protective mechanisms relate to both ecosystem functionality and persistence (Lovelock et al. 2024). Multiple studies over the past decades have effectively shown that mangrove forest extent can lead to reduced wave heights between 50-99%, with vegetative characteristics slowly being introduced as a critical element (McIvor et al. 2013). Increasing evidence has identified that the eco-geomorphological conditions shape the consistency and scale of protection but have not been properly considered. Ecological, hydrodynamic and geomorphological processes which occur at various temporal and spatial scales influence species-specific interactions, functional type formations and habitat structure (Gijsman et al. 2021). Mangrove forests can develop into distinct ecotypes over time (Twilley and Rivera-Monroy 2009), directly influenced by tidal exchanges between the mangrove forests and nearshore environments, affecting the level of productivity within the mangroves (Mitsch and Gosselink 2015). These interactions influence the mangrove forest structure through variability in sediment deposition rates, biomass accumulation, seedling recruitment and overall forest productivity (van Hespen et al. 2023).
Since variations in eco-geomorphological features affect mangrove functionality and persistence at multiple scales, this research will investigate how these differences can affect the ability of mangroves to provide consistent coastal protection. Building on existing modelling approaches (Beselly, van Der Wegen, and Roelvink 2025), the aim is to design an ideal model capable of capturing nuanced interactions between mangrove ecosystems and the geomorphological features. For instance, predictive models (WAPROMAN), designed to capture wave propagation through a uniform forest, utilised drag coefficients (McIvor et al. 2013), while a measure of mangrove forest extent seaward followed a mechanistic approach using the window of opportunity for seedling establishment predictions (van Hespen et al. 2023).
The current workflow will identify and isolate the key drivers and traits of crucial mangrove forests that affect mangrove functionality and persistence, for parameterisation. As a preliminary approach, these parameters will be integrated into a numerical model, incorporating elements from previous mechanistic and empirical approaches, modified to ascertain and accommodate the variability in mangrove eco-geomorphology and sediment dynamics (Gijsman et al. 2021). This process can facilitate the quantification of impact and identify key thresholds that these selected attributes of mangrove forests have on the function and persistence related to long-term coastal protection. Through this integration of multiple layers of eco-geomorphological variability, this work offers insights into how mangrove systems work as Nature-based Solutions and how they thrive within our changing climate.
How to cite: Emmanuel, S.: Mangrove traits influencing coastal protection under varying environmental and eco-geomorphic conditions. , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1457, 2026.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) experience disproportionate vulnerability to natural and climate related hazards driven by geographic constraints, demographic trends, limited economic diversification and growing development pressures. In the Caribbean, flooding is one of the region’s most devastating and recurrent hazards, contributing to substantial socio-economic losses. Despite frequent events, many SIDS lack the long-term datasets needed to characterize flood behavior, particularly for coastal compound flooding, involving the interaction of multiple drivers such as storm surge, waves, tides, precipitation, runoff and river discharge. Climate change, including sea level rise, is expected to alter these processes and increase uncertainty in both magnitude and frequency.
Coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests are increasingly recognized for their potential as Nature-based Coastal Solutions (NBCS), offering coastal protection alongside social, environmental and economic co-benefits. However, key gaps remain, including limited understanding of their flood mitigative properties across varying hydrodynamic conditions and stages of ecosystem maturity and health. Although numerical models are widely used to assess flood hazards, their ability to represent multiple interacting drivers and incorporate NBCS remains limited, a challenge that is particularly pronounced in data-sparse regions. Addressing these limitations requires field data to develop numerical models.
The relevance of these challenges becomes particularly clear in Trinidad’s South Oropouche River Basin (SORB), a low lying and highly flood prone watershed on the southwest coast that includes mangrove areas within the Godineau Swamp. This study therefore centers on collecting the necessary datasets and integrating them into the numerical modelling needed to characterize compound flooding in this basin. Field monitoring in SORB includes weather stations, water level loggers, short-term ADCP deployments, and a paired camera and water level logger system designed to capture flood depth and extent at a high resolution. Additional measurements including water quality parameters and vegetation characteristics from field surveys and satellite imagery, will support the mangrove related parameterization.
The modelling will be forced primarily using open-source datasets, with field observations used to assess their performance and suitability. Comparison of radar rainfall with in-situ measurements will enable the development of a bias-corrected relationship, allowing long-term radar datasets to be translated into site-specific rainfall inputs for compound flood modelling. These observations will be supplemented by historical datasets, including river discharge, Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves, bathymetry and land cover. Thus, the numerical model will simulate the key hydrodynamic processes driving compound flooding while mangrove influences will be represented using vegetation-drag formulations to capture momentum dissipation and associated reductions in inundation. Field observations will be used to calibrate and validate the model, enabling spatial estimates of flood depth and extent under different forcing scenarios.
Field monitoring in SORB is expected to provide new insights into how flood drivers interact to generate inundation, as well as emerging trends and patterns, while deterministic modelling will quantify the degree to which mangroves mitigate flooding. Together, the data-collection and modelling approaches offer a practical means of improving compound flood assessment in regions with limited long-term observations and support a more holistic evaluation of NBCS for SIDS.
How to cite: Williams, A.: Field Data Collection to Support the Numerical Modelling of Mangrove Contributions to Compound Flood Mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1439, 2026.
Cities and their surrounding rural areas face growing pressures from climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and social inequalities. Responding to these challenges requires approaches that not only use environmental data, but also actively involve citizens and local actors in understanding problems and shaping solutions. This contribution presents a European multi-country experience that explores how immersive technologies can support citizen participation, shared understanding, and evidence-informed discussion in rural–urban contexts.
A multi-platform Extended Reality (XR) ecosystem was developed, combining mobile Augmented Reality (AR) and Mixed Reality (MR) head-mounted display applications. These tools were designed to present complex environmental, social, and territorial information through interactive and three-dimensional experiences. Six pilot co-creation laboratories were established in Greece, Spain, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, providing structured spaces where policymakers, citizens, and local stakeholders could jointly explore challenges and opportunities at the rural–urban interface. The XR applications were validated through hands-on workshops and semi-structured interviews, allowing participants to interact with the content and provide direct feedback.
The immersive experiences addressed six thematic domains known to support bi-directional rural–urban synergies and the development of well-being economies: (i) circular bioeconomy, (ii) ecosystem and biodiversity restoration, (iii) improved logistics and shorter value chains, (iv) user engagement, empowerment, and territorial awareness, (v) culture, landscape, and heritage access and promotion, and (vi) enhanced mobility. By visualizing these topics in three dimensions, participants were able to better understand connections, trade-offs, and future options that are often difficult to grasp through conventional maps or reports.
The evaluation followed a structured user-engagement methodology, integrating pre- and post-experience questionnaires directly into the AR and MR applications. This enabled the collection of comparable qualitative and quantitative feedback across all pilot sites. Results show strong educational and communicative value, with 81% of participants reporting perceived learning gains and overall usability rated at 68%.
Overall, the findings demonstrate how immersive technologies can complement citizen science approaches by strengthening inclusion, supporting dialogue between experts and non-experts, and improving environmental literacy. The approach shows clear potential to support participatory planning and climate adaptation efforts in rural–urban areas, contributing to more inclusive and informed decision-making for resilient and sustainable territories.
Acknowledgement:
This research has been funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under RURBANIVE project (Grant Agreement No. 101136597) (RUral-uRBAN synergies emerged in an immersIVE innovation ecosystem).
How to cite: Naskou, K., Katika, T., Touramanis, A., Koukoudis, K., and Amditis, A.: Immersive Citizen Engagement for Climate-Resilient Rural–Urban Interfaces, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3947, 2026.
The rising temperatures and intensification of global heat hazards have evolved beyond occasional or seasonal heatwaves into a frequent state of chronic heat stress, amplifying both the duration and impact of extreme heat events. Driven by rising temperatures, humidity, rapid industrialization, and urbanization, the South Asian region, specifically India, faces escalating vulnerability to this compound hazard, which threatens public health, livelihoods, economic productivity, ecosystem balance, and overall quality of life.
India’s institutional response began with Ahmedabad’s pioneering 2013 Heat Action Plan (HAP), which catalysed the adoption of city- and state-level HAPs nationwide. To understand this evolution, 'content analysis' was conducted for 40 Heat Action Plans of 17 Indian states, available officially and publicly, founded against the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) 2019 guidelines and a global standards study from the WHO and UNDRR. The 23 heatwave-prone states were identified since 2013, only 18 currently have an official HAP.
This review evaluates document structure, its regional contextualization, accessibility to data, and institutional framework. While the NDMA’s (2019) heatwave framework has enabled widespread adoption, it is heatwave-centric and would benefit from explicitly incorporating heat stress through a nationally identified temperature–humidity index, as experimentally presented by IMD in 2023. Although the NOAA Heat Index is frequently cited in HAP documents, it is not suited to Indian conditions, as it does not reliably capture the extreme temperature–humidity regimes prevalent across the country. Furthermore, less than 50% of HAPs include localized vulnerability assessments, which should ideally contextualize physiological and social intricacies, regionally.
Additionally funding ambiguity is another persistent challenge, with most plans lacking identified financial sources or budgetary commitments. Communication gaps are evident, as less than 10% of HAPs provide materials in regional languages, constraining access to vulnerable populations in terms of educational limitation. Although, Ahmedabad’s evolving model remains the most comprehensive in this context. Notably, over 35% of HAPs fail to address land-use land-cover change, urban development plans, or localized climate-resilient design, despite strong links between the built environment and rising heat exposure. Data limitations, fragmented institutional accountability, and the lack of regional context with multi-sector actionability further weaken adaptive governance.
Altogether, these findings highlight the urgent need to move from fragmented, reactive heat responses toward anticipatory, multi-sectoral resilience planning. While the efficacy of HAPs depends on regional contextuality, this diversity must be supported by a replicable national framework guide that acknowledges heat stress while enabling inter-regional comparability. HAPs are primarily action-oriented instruments, this should reflect in the accessibility through local language translations, simplified formats with infographic tools, alongside comprehensive technical format that addresses meteorological services, health surveillance, funding mechanisms, and urban planning and design.
Resilience shouldn’t wait for the next disaster. The global shift toward proactive disaster risk management and the legacy of Ahmedabad’s 2010 heat-related mortality should motivate preparedness over response. Institutionalizing and updating HAPs primarily across all heatwave-prone states followed by the rest is central to embedding preparedness within India’s climate governance and recognizing heat as a structural climate–development challenge, rather than a seasonal hazard.
How to cite: Deshpande, S. and Mukherjee, M.: Gaps, Challenges, and Priorities for Future Adaptation of Heat Action Plans in India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18217, 2026.
As climate change impacts intensify, cities and regions are increasingly required to address adaptation and mitigation in parallel. In practice, however, these two dimensions are often planned and implemented separately, leading to missed co-benefits or unintended trade-offs. Thus, there is a growing need for traceable and operational methods capable of revealing, assessing, and integrating the interdependencies between adaptation and mitigation across sectors and spatial scales. To address this gap, this paper introduces the Indicator Service Framework (ISF), produced in the context of the ClimEmpower project (EU Horizon 2020) This methodological approach translates climate indicators into actionable insights, bridging the two fields of study to improve spatial analysis and local-to-regional decision-making.
The ISF operationalizes climate science by translating robust climate indicators into actionable policy insights. Its design is deliberately anchored in three core principles: multi-scale applicability, ensuring relevance from local to regional levels; data-agnostic design, allowing compatibility with any data source derived from hazard, exposure, and vulnerability assessments; and explicitness of decision logic. A central element of the ISF is the focus on identifying the most appropriate indicators for specific policy objectives, clearly establishing their relationship to the underlying climate risks and local conditions.
The framework employs a streamlined two-step process: first, indicator values are rigorously classified according to their scientific meaning,or against a defined benchmark (e.g., a European average or median value), which subsequently establishes the threshold for policy recommendations; second, they are standardized into harmonized classes. This standardization is crucial, as it enables systematic comparability across regions and facilitates the mapping of results to tailored recommendations. This mechanism is key to identifying concrete opportunities for co-benefits, such as mobility policies that simultaneously reduce emissions and enhance urban thermal comfort.
By structuring a clear pathway from climate data to policy decisions, the ISF functions as more than just a tool; it provides a clear strategic "reading frame" upon which climate actions can be anchored. This approach ensures that the resulting recommendations are systematically adapted to foster the overarching objective of 'climate resilient development' (IPCC 2022). The framework offers a practical contribution to integrated climate governance, enhancing stakeholder awareness and supporting more coherent, resilient, and sustainable strategies under conditions of multi-sectoral complexity.
How to cite: Murano, I., D'Angelo, G., Pavone, V., Del Prete, P., and Zuccaro, G.: An Indicator Service Framework for assessing and integrating climate adaptation–mitigation interdependencies across spatial scales, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5739, 2026.
Deforestation-Driven Surface Warming and Heat Exposure in a Tropical Dry Forest District
Deforestation is widely understood as an important driver of local-scale climate warming in tropical regions, yet its consequences for human heat exposure and associated health risks remain poorly quantified at fine spatial scales. Forest cover regulates land surface temperature through canopy shading and evapotranspiration, suggesting that forest loss may amplify near-surface warming and intensify heat stress beyond background climate change. While global and regional studies have documented warming associated with deforestation, most analyses are conducted at coarse spatial scales and offer limited insight into district-level impacts relevant for human exposure. This gap is particularly evident in tropical dry deciduous forest regions, which experience pronounced seasonal heat stress and support populations heavily dependent on outdoor labor. In India, this type of landscape is widespread, yet fine-resolution assessments linking forest-cover change to heat exposure remain scarce.
This study proposes a district-level investigation of deforestation-driven warming and heat exposure in a district of Jharkhand, which is an ecologically stressed dry tropical forest region characterized by forest degradation and extreme summer temperatures. Forest-cover change since 2000 is quantified using Landsat-based Hansen Global Forest Change data, while land surface temperature patterns are examined using MODIS daytime LST observations. Hourly temperature and humidity fields from ERA5 reanalysis are used to reconstruct diurnal heat exposure and derive heat-stress indicators relevant to outdoor working conditions. Population-weighted exposure metrics and established temperature–health response functions from global burden datasets are employed to explore potential implications for heat-related mortality and losses in safe working hours.
By integrating high-resolution forest, climate, and population datasets, this work aims to isolate the contribution of local forest loss to heat exposure beyond broader regional warming trends. The analysis is expected to provide early evidence of how deforestation can intensify heat risks in vulnerable rural districts, with direct relevance for heat-adaptation planning, forest conservation priorities, and occupational health policies. These insights can inform district-level climate action plans, guide nature-based cooling strategies, and also support targeted interventions to reduce heat exposure among outdoor workers and farmers in tropical dry forest regions.
How to cite: Rani, S. and Sen, S.: Deforestation-Driven Surface Warming and Heat Exposure in a Tropical Dry Forest District., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9676, 2026.
Increasing temperatures create more challenges for outdoor elite sports, particularly high-intensity tournaments such as the Australian Open, where players frequently experience high thermal stress. This study investigates the impact of environmental heat stress on professional tennis performance using high-resolution data from professional tennis matches with environmental performance diagnostics. To quantify these impacts, ATP and WTA singles matches played at various Australian Open tournaments have been analysed in conjunction with ERA5-Land reanalysis data averaged per hour, covering air temperature, relative humidity, global radiation, and wind speed. Heat stress was computed using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index and categorised into heat danger levels according to the heat danger classification of Sports Medicine Australia. A hypothesis-driven, uncertainty-aware statistical framework was employed, utilising robust non-parametric tests, trend analyses, and Spearman rank correlations to evaluate the sensitivity of key performance metrics to escalating levels of heat stress. Overall, the results indicate that severe heat stress conditions negatively affect the efficiency of serve and return, the number of unforced errors, the level of performance variability, and the length of a match in ATP and WTA events. More specifically, aggressive serve-related variables, such as aces, demonstrate a partial level of resilience in severe heat, while rally complexity, shot variety, and return length decrease with increased levels of heat stress. When analysed by set status, the results further suggest that while one of the most elite players controls their playstyle in severe heat conditions, the lower-seeded players take more risks and tend to make errors. Taken together, these findings provide large-scale empirical evidence of the impacts of environmental stress during the Australian Open tournament games. In light of these findings, the Australian Open tournament should adjust its schedule to prioritise tennis players’ health, and future tournaments should be scheduled more precisely according to reports from climate scientists and data-informed schedules.
How to cite: Kahraman, G., Turp, M. T., and An, N.: Heat Stress Impacts on Elite Tennis Performance: Evidence from the Australian Open, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16816, 2026.
In the context of escalating global population, rapid economic development, and ongoing climate change, water resource management is confronted with a multitude of challenges. The North China Plain (NCP), as the economic powerhouse of China, is facing a multifaceted set of water-related issues, including inefficient water use under persistent scarcity, complex virtual water trade flows, and the increasing pressure on allocating water resource among cities through water diversion projects. Traditional water resource models often overlook the two-way feedbacks between water supply sources and demand sectors, therefore may not adequately represent the real-world water resilience dynamics. To address these challenges, this study constructs a System Dynamic (SD) model in NCP, building on water supply and demand statistics from local governmental reports. Different from previous SD-based water models for this region, we explicitly consider the roles of different water supply sources and municipal emergency water reserves. This provides a unique advantage for assessing urban water system resilience under extreme climate conditions. In this presentation, we will first show the validation of our model in the historical period (2000-2020) compared to water agency statistics. We will also illustrate how the interactions between each urban water system components may change under different future climate scenarios. By investigating the dynamic feedbacks between the natural and anthropogenic water cycles, our model is set to provide a scientific reference for governments to plan flexible and adaptive water resource management strategies.
Key word: Water Management; System Dynamic Model; North China Plain.
How to cite: Junkun, L., Qing, H., Xizhu, H., Hui, L., and Taikan, O.: A System Dynamics Model to Assess Water Resilience in the North China Plain, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18945, 2026.
Drought remains a pervasive environmental and socio-economic challenge across developing countries, with rural and semi-arid regions such as South Africa’s particularly vulnerable. In recent decades, climate variability has exacerbated the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, prompting an expanding body of literature on resilience and adaptation. Traditional monitoring tools such as the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Streamflow Index, and NDVI provide valuable biophysical insights but often fail to capture the socio-economic dimensions that shape community vulnerability and response. This review explores the evolution and application of the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework in drought resilience research within developing contexts. The SES approach offers a holistic lens to understand the complex interplay between environmental stressors, livelihoods, governance, and social systems. Emerging literature highlights the growing use of SES yet also reveals persistent gaps including weak integration between quantitative climate data and qualitative social insights, limited longitudinal studies, and inadequate incorporation of local knowledge. Drawing on studies from sub-Saharan Africa and other Global South regions, this review synthesizes key trends, methodological advancements, and research gaps in SES-informed drought resilience. It underscores the need for interdisciplinary, participatory, and context-sensitive approaches to support equitable and sustainable adaptation strategies aligned with global frameworks such as SDG 13 and the Sendai Framework.
How to cite: Mothapo, K., Mathivha, F., Chikoore, H., and Krueger, E.: Integrating drought indices and socio-ecological theory to analyze long-term drought impacts: A review of South Africa’s rural communities., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16979, 2026.
Accurate simulation of irrigation water use is essential for quantifying human impacts on the global water cycle. Given that continuous large-scale in situ monitoring of irrigation is scarce, the fidelity of irrigation estimates relies heavily on how models represent soil-moisture deficits and management targets. In many global hydrological models (e.g., H08), irrigation demand is commonly computed using a soil-moisture deficit approach: water is applied to refill the soil when moisture levels fall below a prescribed target. However, this target is typically implemented as a static, empirically specified parameter. While computationally efficient, this practice introduces substantial uncertainty into simulated irrigation water use.
Here, we develop a satellite-based framework that utilizes observed surface soil moisture to constrain irrigation demand in hydrological models. We first construct a day-of-year climatology of satellite-derived surface soil moisture to capture multi-year mean irrigation conditions and management requirements. Subsequently, we employ a vertical extrapolation strategy to translate satellite-derived surface targets into a root-zone proxy compatible with the H08 model. We validate this strategy in non-irrigated regions before applying it to irrigated areas to enable dynamic, observation-constrained irrigation targets. Preliminary diagnostics indicate that this framework offers a practical pathway for integrating satellite soil-moisture data into H08, improving the spatial realism of irrigation demand and facilitating more consistent evaluations against independent benchmarks.
How to cite: Huang, X., He, Q., Hanasaki, N., and Oki, T.: Constraining irrigation simulation in Global Hydrological Model H08 using satellite-derived dynamic targets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16078, 2026.
Virtual water trade (VWT) redistributes water embodied in agricultural commodities across borders and thereby shapes global interdependence between water resources and food security. Recent studies have increasingly used integrated assessment models (IAMs)—including GCAM, a partial-equilibrium IAM—to project future agricultural production and trade balances under future climate and socio-economic change and to infer virtual water transfer flows(e.g., Graham et al., 2020). However, such approaches assume that commodities are traded in a single global markets, making it difficult to explicitly quantify bilateral exporter–importer dependency structures.
In this study, we develop a scenario-based framework to estimate bilateral virtual water trade of rice and wheat toward 2100 by combining projections of harvested area (land-use), climate-driven yield changes, and population dynamics with an extrapolation of current trade structures. Using baseline bilateral trade matrices from FAOSTAT, we assume that (i) exporter-specific allocation to destination countries and (ii) national export-to-production ratios remain fixed, and we scale bilateral trade volumes in accordance with scenario-driven changes in production and demand. We then compute bilateral VWT by linking projected crop flows with crop- and location-specific water-use coefficients. The analysis focuses on SSP2 as the primary scenario, with additional SSP comparison(SSP126 and SSP585). This framework enables assessment of how future VWT magnitude and bilateral dependency patterns may evolve differently between rice—characterized by relatively thin international markets—and wheat, which is traded in thicker global markets, providing insights for water–food security assessment under future climate and socio-economic change.
How to cite: Tsuda, K., Sano, T., Oki, T., and Iizumi, T.: Projecting bilateral virtual water trade of rice and wheat toward 2100 under different SSP scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16183, 2026.
Responding to the challenges of a changing climate requires information that is relevant and actionable at the local scale where adaptation actions take place. To address these needs within Denmark, Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas, was developed to provide information to ministries, regional authorities, businesses and citizens about climate change in Denmark. Here we present the lessons learnt since the inception of the project in 2018, with a focus on those that are relevant to the development of similar tools in other regions. We will examine issues around the conception and setup of the climate service, particularly the need to identify users, work with champions and set limits. Communication is a critical aspect of such a service and we will discuss our approach of communicating on multiple levels, and taking up the challenge of uncertainty. Updatability, maintenance and operationalisation are also key, and the merits of the “rolling-releases” model used by Klimaatlas will be discussed, together with our efforts to open our codebase via the KAPy project. Finally, we discuss issues around future maintenance and possible expansions of Klimaatlas, including the use of convection permitting simulations, incorporation of compound events, updates between IPCC cycles and extensions to new sectors.
How to cite: Payne, M. R.: Lessons in climate service development from Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17146, 2026.
Strengthening water resilience in Europe requires the widespread adoption of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) that are easily understood, trusted and supported by citizens and local stakeholders. This study focuses on the development of an Augmented Reality (AR) engagement system designed to communicate how different NbSs function in real-world scenarios and address water-related challenges. The AR experiences were co-created with local communities through dedicated focus groups, co-design workshops and structured discussions with key stakeholders, ensuring that the content reflects local priorities and practical needs at each pilot location.
The AR system brings together a set of NbS demonstrations into a unified series of interactive experiences. These include: (i) soil restoration and small-scale water retention measures in dry island landscapes that can reduce runoff, prevent erosion and enhance soil water storage for agricultural resilience; (ii) green walls that can treat greywater within a public building, enabling its safe reuse for non-potable applications such as toilet flushing; (iii) urban NbSs (including pocket forests, bioswales, permeable surfaces and soil improvement) that can mitigate flooding, reduce urban heat stress, and enhance environmental quality; and (iv) hydroponic wall systems that support urban gardening by combining seasonal planting, traditional knowledge and water-efficient practices.
The AR campaigns integrate maps, 3D models, photographs and explanatory narratives to guide users through each process step-by-step (e.g. users can follow the flow of greywater through a treatment system or observe the gradual transformation of degraded land as NbS are applied). By making otherwise invisible processes tangible and spatially explicit, the AR mobile application enhances understanding of how NbS improve water availability, reduce flood risks, support local food production and contribute to healthier and more resilient living environments.
The next phase of the work focuses on real-world validation across various pilot areas, involving diverse user groups (including residents, farmers, students, local authorities, and planners) to interact with the AR experiences on site and obtain their feedback to refine content clarity, usability and relevance for local planning processes and everyday decision-making.
The use of the AR mobile application demonstrates how visual storytelling combined with participatory design and field-based feedback can enhance awareness, build trust and support the mainstreaming of NbSs, contributing to strengthened water resilience across Mediterranean and broader European contexts.
Acknowledgement:
This research has been funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under CARDIMED project (Grant Agreement No. 101112731) (Climate Adaptation and Resilience Demonstrated in the MEDiterranean region).
How to cite: Katika, T., Koukoudis, K., Touramanis, A., Michalis, P., and Amditis, A.: From Co-Design to Mainstreaming: Using Augmented Reality to Communicate Nature-Based Solutions for Water Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3848, 2026.
The Challenge:
Establishing a viable and systematic approach to measure the volume of stormwater runoff that can be captured to replenish aquifers and enhance climate resilience. Droughts, floods, erosion, heat domes, and crop failures are interconnected issues related to water, food, climate, and economics. Scaling up science-based methods across large areas presents challenges.
Overview:
Water is a common thread in climate change manifestation. Anthropological land use changes have transformed hydrology in various regions. Opportunities exist to integrate stormwater capture into water and climate management. It is important to consider rainwater as a valuable resource rather than something that is discarded. Conventional infrastructure drains rainwater excessively from agricultural, forested, and urban lands, wasting resources and threatening ecosystem stability and biodiversity.
Solutions:
Solution explores stakeholder-supported volumetric stormwater capture projects to deliver net positive water resource benefits, enhance climate resilience, and provide multiple co-benefits. This integration leads to financial returns and improved community satisfaction. A new water paradigm can help restore water resources on land.
Case Study: In Slovakia, a new water paradigm approach has emerged over the last three decades, focusing on critical rainwater management. The authors discuss their experience in implementing past projects and their positive impact on the community, detailing the new Košice Region restoration plan in Slovakia. The new water paradigm approach attracted the attention of the UN Foresight Brief and UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and within the EU Climate-ADAPT framework.
How to cite: Kravčík, M. and Mulkerin, Z.: Climate Resiliency through Restoration using New Water Paradigm Methods, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19386, 2026.
Uncertainty and perceived lack of quantifiability in the evaluation of nature-based solution (NbS) benefits relating to non-market ecosystem services remains a barrier to the ready adoption of NbS as water resilience projects. We aim to bridge this gap for coastal and riverine NbS by creating a framework to improve inclusion of the entire range of ecosystem services provided by NbS in cost-benefit analysis of water resilience project alternatives. We have conducted a literature review of NbS and natural and nature-based feature (NNBF) literature and case studies to determine which ecosystem services are associated with wetlands, dunes and beaches, seagrass meadows, barrier islands, and forested ecosystems. Through the review, we have identified ecological and environmental, carbon capture, coastal land loss reduction, hazard risk reduction, socio-economic and cultural, and economic and financial services of each NbS type, along with the range of metrics currently used to evaluate project output of these benefits. We created a fully cited framework detailing the benefits and metrics for each NbS type, and implemented it in both a knowledge graph and interactive radial graph formats. The interactive radial graph provides support for human user exploration of the framework and cited literature and case studies. The knowledge graph will serve to support retrieval-augmented generative agent tools in the future. In future work, we will improve on the framework with inclusion of cost and limitation information, as well as a basic method for estimating market values of non-market benefits based on those of market benefits.
How to cite: Noggle, R., Akter, D., Rahim, M. A., and Mostafiz, R. B.: A framework to facilitate inclusion of NbS ecosystem service benefits in cost-benefit analysis, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22058, 2026.
Mountain districts within biodiversity hotspots often experience increasing ecological pressure despite retaining extensive forest cover. In the Western Ghats of India, Idukki district has undergone rapid tourism expansion, infrastructure development, and land-use reconfiguration over the past decade. This study assesses how changes in urban nature accessibility and population demand influence ecosystem service distribution and habitat vulnerability using the InVEST modelling framework. Urban Nature Access and balance indicators accessibility, per-capita balance, and total population balance were evaluated alongside a Habitat Risk Assessment for 2011 and 2025. The results indicate a growing spatial mismatch between population demand and accessible natural spaces, with strongly negative urban nature balance values expanding across central and southern Idukki by 2025. Accessibility and population pressure have become increasingly concentrated along valley floors, plantation belts, and transport corridors, while large forested areas remain functionally inaccessible. Habitat Risk Assessment results show that human-modified land-cover classes experience disproportionately higher risk, with built-up areas exhibiting the highest mean risk (R̄ = 0.42), followed by plantations (R̄ = 0.38) and croplands (R̄ = 0.34). Deciduous forests display lower vulnerability (R̄ = 0.22), and water bodies remain largely unaffected (R̄ = 0.05). More than one-third of built-up and plantation landscapes fall within medium to high habitat risk categories. High-risk zones identified by the model spatially coincide with landslide-prone regions that experienced repeated slope failures during extreme monsoon years (2018–2020), particularly in tourism-intensive areas such as Munnar, Adimali, and Peermade. These patterns indicate that ecological vulnerability in Idukki is driven less by absolute forest loss than by accessibility-induced concentration of human activities within steep, geophysically fragile landscapes. The findings emphasize the importance of integrating accessibility-aware ecosystem service assessments with hazard-sensitive nature-based land-use planning to reduce ecological degradation and disaster risk while supporting sustainable tourism and development in the Western Ghats.
How to cite: Jalaja, D. and Singh, S.: Accessibility-driven habitat vulnerability in the tropical mountain landscape of Idukki district, India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5175, 2026.
Mythogenic Mountain Landscapes and Shakta Sacred Geographies: Cultural Memory of Geodynamic Processes in the Indian Subcontinent
Nigam Dave, Shrishti Kushwah, Ankita Srivastava, Dharmanshu Vaidya
Mountain landscapes of India are characterised by active tectonics, complex relief, and frequent exposure to earthquakes, landslides, and hydrological disasters. While geospatial hazard research models these processes using physical datasets, culturally grounded responses to long-term environmental instability remain less expolored within landscape-based analyses. This paper examines mythogenic mountain landscapes by analysing how Shakta sacred geographies function as spatial expressions of cultural memory associated with geodynamic processes.
The study focuses on selected Shakta-associated sacred sites situated in tectonically and geomorphically dynamic regions, including Kamakhya (Nilachal Hill, Assam), Jwalamukhi/Jwala Devi (Kangra Valley, Himachal Pradesh), Naina Devi and Chintpurni (Shivalik foothills, Himachal Pradesh), and Jayanti at Nartiang (Jaintia Hills, Meghalaya). Using GIS-based spatial profiling, site locations are analyzed in relation to relief, drainage corridors, and regional deformation zones. We also comparatively interpret recurring mythic motifs and ritual-temporal practices.
The analysis reveals patterned concentrations of sacred sites along mountain–plain transitions and structurally complex landscapes associated with environmental volatility. By situating landscape-scale patterning rather than site-specific belief, the study invites cross-disciplinary discussion on the role of geomythology in geoheritage interpretation and risk awareness. Recognising such mythogenic landscapes suggests culturally grounded perspectives for disaster-risk communication in regions facing increasing multi-hazard pressures.
How to cite: Dave, N., Kushwah, S., Srivastava, A., and Vaidya, D.: Mythogenic Mountain Landscapes and Shakta Sacred Geographies: Cultural Memory of Geodynamic Processes in the Indian Subcontinent, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2312, 2026.
