A number of countries develop and disseminate ‘National Climate Scenario’ products to inform a range of applications, including climate risk assessments and impacts assessments and the development of adaptation plans.
Different nations have taken a range of approaches to the provision of their National Scenarios to provide decision-relevant information. Common challenges encountered by the providers of National Scenarios include how to capture, quantify and communicate uncertainties, the provision of information at high enough resolution to inform relevant applications, how to update and revise National Projections to capture new and emerging science, and understanding the user landscape to provide information of both the type and format that is relevant and accessible to a wide range of ‘next users’ and ‘end users’ with different levels of technical capacity and different specific requirements.
The session will take an inter-disciplinary view of the landscape of the provision and use of National Projections, and we particularly encourage submissions that consider:
• Latest plans and opportunities for developing new or updated National Projections products and services;
• Challenges in the provision of National climate information – including technical hurdles, information gaps and the challenges in providing information in ways that is relevant and accessible;
• New developments in the science or scenario products drawing from novel types of information that could form part of a National Climate information package – e.g. drawing from event Attribution, exploiting decadal forecasts to provide near-term projection information, provision of ‘High Impact, Low Likelihood’ scenarios, exploitation of convection-permitting downscaling and global high resolution models, the use of storylines approaches;
• Understanding user needs and the co-development of climate information and services;
• The future outlook and opportunities for national climate services, including developments such as CMIP7 and CORDEX, potential to use of AI emulation in projections products, and the implications of wider climate science and or policy developments.