Seismic hazard assessment is crucial for the design of critical facilities, whose damage could lead to severe consequences. The design of such facilities typically requires the definition of seismic actions associated with recurrence periods on the order of 5,000-10,000 years. Earthquakes with such low frequencies are well documented in highly deforming regions, where paleoseismic records commonly encompass several seismic cycles of active faults. In contrast, in slow-deforming regions or areas of low seismicity, the scarcity of seismic data hinders the definition of seismogenic zones. In this context, geological studies of active seismogenic faults are essential, as they allow the characterisation of seismic behaviour over time spans far exceeding those covered by instrumental or historical records. These data can contribute to constraining fault’s seismic cycles and estimating earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions at the fault scale.
Despite their importance, the incorporation of faults into seismic hazard models remains challenging, particularly in low strain regions such as the western margin of the Valencia Trough. This region of the NE of Iberia (from the Vallès-Penedès Graben to the Valencia Depression) corresponds to a passive margin characterised by a basin-and-range structure, bounded by multiple NNE–SSW-oriented normal faults formed during the Neogene rifting episode. Those faults are usually associated with mountain fronts, although our recent studies have found some new faults crosscutting Pleistocene alluvial fans. These newly discovered faults are being studied by means of geomorphology, geophysics, paleoseismology and geochronology in order to estimate their seismic parameters. Several challenges arise when analysing these faults, including fault identification, incomplete geological records, and the need for complex dating techniques.
Moreover, in regions characterised by fault systems, fault interactions may play a significant role. In regions such as the studied area, these interactions may result in long quiescent periods followed by phases of increased activity or even cascading events. Under such conditions, distinguishing between quiescent and active phases is especially difficult, as recurrence intervals are expected to span several thousands of years in both cases.
In this work, we explore existing methodologies for the computation of seismic hazard incorporating geological data from faults and fault systems in slow-deforming regions, using the western margin of the Valencia Trough as a case study. To this end, a detailed geometric characterization of the fault system is carried out to establish the geometric relationships among faults. Recent morphotectonic analyses and newly acquired geological data are then used to constrain the seismic parameters of the studied faults and to estimate their earthquake frequency distributions. Finally, several alternative seismic source models are proposed, forming the basis for the construction of a logic tree for subsequent seismic hazard calculations. These
models, although in progress, provide a framework for improving seismic hazard assessments in slow-deforming regions, contributing to safer design of critical infrastructure.