This Fault2SHA session will focus on state-of-the-art progress in Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) and its integration into probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA). Recent developments highlight the importance of combining physics-based simulators, inversion-based fault system solutions, and fault-based approaches with geologic and geodetic data to produce models that are modular, transparent, and more suitable for practical applications in hazard and risk mitigation.
Geological investigations continue to provide critical insights into fault behavior and earthquake recurrence. Paleoseismological trenching, high-resolution coring, structural geology, tectonic geomorphology, and geodesy extend the earthquake record from recent events to multi-millennial timescales, enabling the characterization of earthquake source parameters and long-term fault behavior. These multidisciplinary observations, when combined with physics-based and multi-cycle earthquake simulations, offer new opportunities to address epistemic uncertainties, capture complex rupture processes, and refine time-dependent hazard models.
The session aims to foster dialogue on how innovative approaches and diverse datasets can be integrated into seismic hazard frameworks, ultimately improving our ability to quantify uncertainties and support applications ranging from building codes and land-use planning to insurance and risk management.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
• ERF approaches and their role in PSHA and FDHA
• Advances in physics-based earthquake cycle simulations
• Incorporation of paleoseismological and geological constraints into hazard models
• Structural geology, tectonic geomorphology, and geodesy applied to fault characterization
• Methods to quantify and reduce epistemic uncertainties in hazard assessments
• Case studies linking recent earthquakes, long-term fault behavior, and hazard analysis
We particularly encourage contributions that present innovative, integrative, and multidisciplinary approaches to studying active faults and their role in seismic hazard assessment.