Orals: Mon, 4 May, 16:15–18:00 | Room 2.23
Soil health degradation is a major threat to European forests, with consequences for biodiversity and climate stability. Although spatially distributed soil data are available, a clear and quantifiable framework for soil health monitoring, management, and policy support is still lacking. In this study, we applied the recently proposed SHERPA framework (Soil Health Evaluation, Rating Protocol, and Assessment) to ICP Forests Level I data. SHERPA was published as a framework for discussion and provides the first quantitative soil health assessment at the European scale (Alewell et al., 2025).
Soil health scores were estimated by considering all major soil degradation processes, which were averaged to obtain Part 2 scores. This value was then subtracted from the intrinsic soil health score (Part 1), which is based on altitude, parent material, and humus horizon thickness (OL, OF, and OH), to calculate the final quantitative soil health score. Preliminary results indicate that soil health in forests across Europe is significantly reduced. This is mainly driven by nitrogen surplus, reflecting the widely documented forest decline caused by nutrient imbalances. Soil health is further affected by soil erosion and elevated concentrations of heavy metals, particularly nickel, which are predominantly observed in southern Europe. Overall, 45% of the samples show soil health scores below 1 on a scale from -8 to 10. These results are based on coarse-resolution spatial data due to the limited availability of measured soil data, especially of information on soil compaction and/or disturbance of a closed humus layer coverage of the soil. Therefore, the estimates can be further improved, but they already highlight major threats to forest soil health across Europe.
How to cite: Gupta, S. and Alewell, C.: Evaluating Forest Soil Health in Europe Using ICP Forests Data and the SHERPA Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3798, 2026.
Forests are a cornerstone of nature-based climate mitigation, yet carbon stocks in managed Central European forests remain substantially below their full potential. Understanding this gap is essential for developing realistic mitigation strategies within the timeframe of national carbon neutrality targets.
We compare the current aboveground carbon stocks for Norway spruce (Picea abies), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), and oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) to their theoretical potential across Central European forests. Relying on a unique network of 593 long-term, unmanaged experimental plots throughout Europe that represent stand development under natural dynamics, we derive the carbon storage potential under maximum stocking density conditions. In contrast, realized carbon stocks are obtained from recent National Forest Inventory data (2024), which represent the current state of managed forests. Nonlinear growth models were fitted separately to experimental and inventory datasets, relating standing carbon stock to age and site productivity, while accounting for species-specific survival probabilities.
We reveal that Central European managed forests stay considerably below their full carbon storage potential compared to fully stocked and unmanaged forests of comparable age and site quality. Differences are highly species- and age-specific, with the largest gaps observed in middle-aged to maturing stands of European beech. Norway spruce stands also exhibited substantial potential, albeit with higher risks at older ages. Overall, we estimate that theoretically >500 *106 t CO2 equivalents could be stored by increasing C stock.
Using the most recent National Forest Inventory cycle, our estimates quantify the gap between potential and realized carbon storage across species and age classes. These findings provide a quantitative foundation for science-based decisions on forest mitigation capacity and for evaluating management scenarios that could help narrow this gap.
How to cite: Hilmers, T., Müller, J., Peters, R. L., Schmied, G., and Pretzsch, H.: Carbon stock in Central European forests: potential and reality , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10931, 2026.
Facing an uncertain future, european forests are expected to fulfill a range of forest ecosystem services (FES), including timber supply, carbon storage or biodiversity. Using criteria and indicators forest managers can evaluate alternative management options and decision support systems (DSS) help them make decisions considering multiple objectives. Such tools need input on forest development under various scenarios, to obtain robust decisions, such as provided by forest models. We use the simulation results from the project “OptFor-EU” generated by the hybrid forest model PICUS v1.5 for four case study areas in Austria, Italy, Germany and Romania. We utilize six different climate input (3 RCPs, 2 regional climate models) and up to nine management alternatives in simulations until year 2100. The initial stand structure was derived using forest inventory data. We aggregated forest stands (represented by forest types) assuming even distribution of age classes in a hypothetical landscape or region of interest.
We found positive tradeoffs between key forest ecosystem services, FES (carbon sink, biodiversity, harvested wood volume) for selected forest management alternatives. Under a “no active management” scenario, most of the simulated forest stands in the case study areas reached their potential carbon storage in the second half of the century and thus their carbon sink becomes neutral during that period. A surprising result was that selected biodiversity indicators were higher under management scenarios than no management, at least for certain time periods and age classes. Less extensive forest management alternatives may offer tradeoffs between FESs. Next steps are expanding the simulations to additional case study areas and refining and optimizing the forest management, considering more realistic age class distributions and/or varying management by age class.
References
- Irauschek, W. Rammer, M.J. Lexer, Evaluating multifunctionality and adaptive capacity of mountain forest management alternatives under climate change in the Eastern Alps, Eur. J. For. Res. 136 (2017) 1051–1069. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1051-6.
- Lexer, M. J. and K. Hönninger. 2001. A modified 3D-patch model for spatially explicit simulation of vegetation composition in heterogeneous landscapes. Forest Ecology and Management 144:43–65.
How to cite: Erich, N. and Neumann, M.: Tradeoffs in ecosystem services of European forests using a case study approach and a climate-sensitive modelling tool, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11243, 2026.
Forest-based climate mitigation measures are central to achieving the EU’s climate neutrality target by 2050 and meeting the LULUCF goal of 310 Mt CO₂ net removals by 2030. Forest management strategies should balance carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation with wood production, and build resilient flows of ecosystem services under changing climatic conditions. In this study, we apply an integrated modelling framework combining dynamic vegetation models (LPJ-GUESS), forest resource models (EFISCEN-Space), a global forest sector model (EFI-GTM) and a wood flow model (aiphoria) with dynamic life-cycle assessment modelling to assess the long-term carbon and biodiversity impacts of alternative forest management approaches across Europe. We include the downstream effects of changed wood provision to harvested wood products impacting the forest sector carbon balance and provide insights into potential substitution effects. By linking biophysical and economic modelling, we identify management strategies that enhance resilience and multifunctionality while supporting EU policy objectives for climate mitigation and biodiversity in the forest sector.
Our results suggest that management portfolios emphasizing extended rotation periods, reduced thinning intensities, and shifting to continuous cover harvesting—particularly when coupled with long-lived wood product deployment that replaces fossil-intensive other materials —can boost carbon sequestration and biodiversity outcomes across Europe. However, they also suggest reduced near-time harvesting levels—which appears to be the more important regulator of forest C sinks than the method of harvesting. Changing harvesting regimes and other management practices can help closing the gap towards the 310 Mt CO₂ target and contribute to the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality goal, but they also affect near-time harvest yields.
How to cite: Peltoniemi, M., Rautiainen, A., Repo, A., Pugh, T., Eckes-Shephard, A., Lindeskog, M., Suvanto, S., Raymond, J., Arneth, A., Filipek, S., Schelhaas, M.-J., Nabuurs, G.-J., Moiseyev, A., Orfanidou, T., Müller, A., Cardellini, G., van't Veen, H., and Verkerk, H.: Exploring climate and biodiversity smart forest management options for European forests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13226, 2026.
Boreal forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle, yet the stability of this sink is uncertain during a period of rapid global environmental change. Swedish forest biomass has increased in recent decades, yet it remains unclear whether primary and managed secondary forests have changed similarly, and to what extent changes are driven by stand-age or shifts in growth curves. This is because intensive forest management practices in Sweden such as thinning, draining and fertilisation may obscure the effect of environmental changes, while rotational clear-cutting reduces the stand age. Here, we combine extensive National Forest Inventory data from 1983 to 2022 with random forest models to disentangle potential drivers of biomass change across forest types by isolating growth-curve and stand-age distribution effects. Our results indicate that management suppresses potential growth curve enhancement at a given stand-age as well as reducing the stand-age itself, leading to little net biomass change in managed secondary forests but large increases in primary forests. With the continued logging of unprotected primary forests, as well as the projected increase in warming, this has significant implications for the future boreal forest carbon stock.
How to cite: Register, E., Smith, H., Lindström, J., and Ahlström, A.: Enhanced growth rate and stand age leads to stronger biomass increase in primary versus managed secondary forests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14710, 2026.
European forests have been subject to increasingly severe disturbances over recent years, particularly with respect to bark beetle outbreaks and fires. The occurrence of such disturbances will likely increase with intensifying climate change, impacting the services that forests provide including climate change mitigation and wood production. Disturbances events are, however, challenging to simulate, which means that possible changes in disturbances rates have been generally excluded from future projections of European forest dynamics. Here we draw on recent developments in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, allowing to simulate bark beetle outbreak, windthrow and fire at the European scale. We initialise LPJ-GUESS with observations of forest stand age and species composition from field and remotely-sensed data. Then we make projections of European forest dynamics over the period 2025–2100 under both strong and moderate climate change scenarios. Consideration of disturbances had locally substantial effects on the carbon sink, biomass stock and harvest extractions, but the effect averaged over the whole continent was relatively modest. Adaptation actions related to modifications of harvest rates, such as shortening or lengthening rotation periods, tended to impact forest dynamics more through their direct effects on harvest than through their interactions with disturbance impacts. Overall, it is harvest actions, not disturbances, which appear to primarily govern the future of the European forest.
How to cite: Pugh, T., Eckes-Shephard, A. H., Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Jönsson, A.-M., Lagergren, F., Miller, P. A., Nieradzik, L., Olin, S., Peltoniemi, M., Rautiainen, A., Schelhaas, M.-J., Suvanto, S., Verkerk, P. J., Wittenbrink, M., and Zhong, H.: The impact of future forest disturbances on the European forest carbon sink, stock and wood production, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17236, 2026.
Changes in alpine land management have led to the abandonment of high-altitude pastures in the European Alps. At the same time, climate warming facilitates upward forest expansion, creating opportunities for carbon (C) sequestration by afforestation. However, the magnitude of this potential remains uncertain, as soil C responses and forest growth at high elevations are still poorly understood.
We quantified biomass and soil C stocks in forest stands planted on subalpine pastures (1,600–2,100 m a.s.l.) in the Austrian Alps and compared them with adjacent pastures. In addition, we assessed vascular plant diversity and analysed timberline dynamics surrounding the afforestation sites.
Afforested plots stored 121 ± 49 Mg C ha⁻¹ more organic C than pastures, corresponding to a sequestration potential of 441 ± 179 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹ within ~55 years after planting. Carbon sequestration occurred predominantly in tree biomass, which grew remarkably well despite the high-elevation conditions, while soil C stocks remained largely unchanged. Vascular plant diversity declined significantly under closed forest canopies, although higher diversity in nearby mature forests indicates partial recovery at later stand stages. Despite regional warming, the upper forest boundary remained largely stable over the past two decades.
Our results suggest that afforestation can accelerate forest establishment around the current upper forest edges and create local carbon sinks, while biodiversity impacts are mixed and strongly context-dependent.
How to cite: Schindlbacher, A., Inselsbacher, E., Foldal, C., König, A., Giunta, A., Markart, G., Lapin, K., Steiner, H., Schumacher, B., Kopecky, K., Schueler, S., Kindermann, G., and Ledermann, T.: Carbon sequestration potential of high-altitude afforestations in the Eastern Alps, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17632, 2026.
In recent years, German forests have faced numerous stress episodes, such as droughts, heatwaves and insect outbreaks, leading to a significant rise in tree mortality. Consequently, deadwood production increased, partly outpacing extraction capacities. This trend coincides with a shift towards more selective forest management methods that partially retain deadwood on logged sites. As a result, the average amount of deadwood per hectare in Germany has substantially increased, climbing from 19.9 m3 ha-1 yr-1 in 2012 to 29.4 m3 ha-1 yr-1 in 2022.
Besides providing valuable species habitats and sequestering carbon, deadwood plays a significant role in the water cycle, by reducing surface runoff and acting as a water reservoir.
Despite its growing abundance and ecological relevance, deadwood is largely neglected in current land surface models such as in JSBACH (ICON-LAND main component), particularly with respect to its impact on hydrology and microclimates.
This omission is rooted in the historical removal of deadwood under conventional management and in limited understanding of deadwood's hydrological properties, which vary with factors such as soil characteristics, canopy closure, deadwood position and species.
Here, we present an approach to quantify and model the influence of deadwood on hydrology and microclimates, by combining experimental field measurements from Bavarian Nature Reserves and the data from the LabForest project in the University forest of the LMU in southern Germany with JSBACH outputs. We compare different methodological pathways for deriving observation-based parameterizations suitable to model integration. Preliminary results indicate that deadwood exerts measurable effects on near-surface microclimate and soil moisture dynamics, highlighting the need to explicitly represent deadwood in land surface modeling frameworks.
How to cite: Matthias, B., Wolfgang, O., Lukas, L., Julia, P., and Markus, B.: Modelling the impact of dead wood water retention in Central European Forests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18726, 2026.
Forests are central to climate change mitigation while simultaneously delivering co-benefits to biodiversity, bioeconomy, and climate adaptation. Yet scientific evidence on forest’s mitigation capacities is often fragmented across datasets, spatial scales, and scenario assumptions, consequently limiting accessibility, understandability, and transparency for decision-making. This contribution presents the ForestNavigator Portal, a science–policy interface designed to support the integrated exploration of forest carbon mitigation pathways and associated mitigation potentials in the European Union.
The platform combines spatially explicit forest monitoring data with emerging pathway outputs derived from alternative policy scenarios to enable a consistent assessment of both historical dynamics, present conditions, and future mitigation options under a range of policy assumptions. The first portal component, the Data Explorer, provides harmonised geospatial indicators, including forest cover, disturbance, and carbon stock change, visualised primarily through spatial maps to support examination of recent trends and disturbance regimes relevant for monitoring and assessment of changes in forest carbon stocks. The Pathways Explorer, the second component, enables comparative analysis of mitigation pathways at EU level, while also supporting exploration of pathways at country level, informed by national data and models, across alternative policy scenarios using aggregated indicators and comparative visual summaries reflecting alternative forest management, wood-use, biodiversity, and adaptation options. Policy scenarios will include an EU reference policy scenario as well as alternative policy pathways for EU forests, based on stakeholder’s input from scenario co-development exercises.
A core methodological contribution is the platform’s capacity to make forest mitigation pathways directly comparable across alternative policy scenarios, with a focus on improving the accessibility and understandability of pathway assessments while supporting the exploration of uncertainty through comparison across alternative policy scenarios and interactions across key dimensions. Interactive comparison functions, split-screen visualisations, and downloadable harmonised datasets reduce barriers between complex modelling outputs and policy-relevant interpretation. Particular attention is given to disturbance monitoring within the Data Explorer and to adaptation-oriented considerations in pathway exploration.
By integrating monitoring data and pathway results within a unified interface, the ForestNavigator Portal advances the practical use of forest science for climate mitigation planning. The approach supports evaluation of combined forest mitigation portfolios rather than isolated measures and contributes to improved science-based understanding of forests capacity to mitigate climate change under evolving environmental and socio-economic conditions.
How to cite: Singh, K. N., Schmidt, S., Ali, S., Singh, R., Derci Augustynczik, A. L., Lejeune, Q., and Di Fulvio, F.: Enhancing accessibility and understandability of forest mitigation pathways anddata through an integrated science-policy interface, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20799, 2026.
Posters on site: Mon, 4 May, 08:30–10:15 | Hall X1
Forest transformations extend beyond ecology to institutional shifts driven by evolving values, actor networks, and policy frameworks. This impacts carbon sequestration and mitigation capacities. Past research on shifts from deforestation to net gains or state to community management relies on ex-post case studies (Meyfroidt & Lambin, 2011; Rudel et al., 2010; Charmakar et al., 2024). However, forward-looking approaches are essential for guiding sustainable management amid uncertainties like climate change and bioeconomy demands. This study employs a three-round Delphi survey with high-level experts from policy, industry, and bioeconomy sectors to project wood production trajectories and management transformations across 2021-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, aligning with the role of forests and wood production for reaching climate targets.
Responses distinguish likelihood from desirability of developments, revealing on the one hand the points of consensus on institutional innovations such as reconfigured governance, property rights, and stakeholder participation. On the other, they reveal how experts value the role of forest carbon sinks while sustaining wood supply for bioeconomy mitigation (Weiss et al., 2021; Ludvig & Buzogány, under review). The advantage of a Delphi survey in this study is that it reveals the points of departure for consensus in complex and debated policy matters such as the purpose of wood use and harvesting. To this point, experts favor sustained wood mobilization over widespread set-asides for emissions reductions, viewing knowledge gaps as the primary barrier to sustainable production rather than market competition. Furthermore, wood markets are projected stable or growing to 2050 but declining post-2050. Diverse expert backgrounds reveal nuanced insights. Moreover, open responses highlight some innovative ideas for novel rules in tackling the trade-offs between ecological and economic challenges. The findings inform science-based strategies for forest mitigation. The approach advances foresight methods for complex socio-ecological systems (D’Amato et al., 2020).
References
Charmakar, S., Kimengsi, J. N., & Giessen, L. (2024). Linking institutional change mechanisms with forest management outcomes: Evidence from community forestry in Nepal. Ecology and Society, 29(3), https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-15085-290301
D'Amato, D., Veijonaho, S., & Toppinen, A. (2020). Towards sustainability? Forest-based circular bioeconomy business models in Finnish SMEs. Forest Policy and Economics, 110, 101848.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.12.004
Rudel, T. K., Schneider, L., & Uriarte, M. (2010). Forest transitions: An introduction. Land use policy, 27(2), 95-97
Weiss, G., Hansen, E., Ludvig, A., Nybakk, E., & Toppinen, A. (2021). Innovation governance in the forest sector: Reviewing concepts, trends and gaps. Forest Policy and Economics, 130, Article 102506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102506
How to cite: Ludvig, A., Larasatie, P., and Putro Handrito, R.: Expert Foresight for Enhancing European Forests' Climate Mitigation Potential up to 2100, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16467, 2026.
Continuous cover forest management (CCFM) plays a key role in sustaining forest multifunctionality by reconciling timber production with long-term carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and landscape continuity. It represents a cornerstone of the closer-to-nature approach promoted by the European Forest Strategy for 2030 and related EU Guidelines, providing science-based solutions to enhance forest resilience to climate change while supporting bioeconomy and rural development. As forests are increasingly expected to contribute to climate change mitigation, they simultaneously face growing pressures from climatic extremes and environmental stressors, making the evaluation of management practices under changing climate conditions a critical research priority.
In this study, carried out in the context of the EU project SMURF, we analyze the long-term application of group selection cutting within irregular black pine (Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold) stands of the Sila Plateau (Calabria, Southern Italy), a traditional silvicultural system widely adopted by private forest owners. Using ecosystem service modelling approaches, we assess variations in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in relation to gap size, regeneration patterns, and climate parameters, with the aim of evaluating the effectiveness of this CCFM practice in supporting climate change mitigation.
Results highlight how gap size variability allows the pursuit of multiple management objectives, ranging from the conservation of pure black pine stands—of high value for historical landscapes and habitat preservation—to the promotion of broadleaved species recruitment, which may enhance ecosystem resilience and wildfire resistance under future climate scenarios. Regeneration dynamics within gaps are analyzed to define operational silvicultural parameters that support successful natural regeneration while maintaining stable carbon sequestration rates. Overall, the study demonstrates that group selection cutting can effectively balance climate mitigation potential with economic income, contributing to science-based forest management strategies, forest resilience and adaptive capacity in Mediterranean mountain environments.
How to cite: Secchi, G., Altomare, V., Zorzi, I., Scriva, J., Fattoretto, I., Incollu, I., Giambastiani, Y., Travaglini, D., and Giannetti, F.: Continuous cover forest management in Black pine stands: regeneration dynamics, ecosystem services and implications for climate change mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11651, 2026.
European forestry and agroforestry systems are foundational to the European Green Deal's climate and sustainability objectives. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the European Innovation Partnership for Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability (EIP-AGRI) Operational Groups (OGs) as a critical policy instrument for implementing these objectives on the ground. By systematically analyzing the innovations co-developed by these multi-actor partnerships, we assess their capacity to translate high-level strategy into tangible, practice-led solutions that address pressing sectoral challenges in climate change and digitalization.
This pan-European analysis, carried out within the FOREST4EU project, employed a mixed-methods framework, combining thematic, semantic, and network-based cluster analysis of 175 distinct innovations generated by 86 OGs across ten European countries to map the continent's forestry innovation ecosystem.
Our findings demonstrate that OGs are directly confronting climate change, with a major innovation cluster focused on "Climate adaptation and forest resilience" to address stressors like drought, forest fires, and pests. Critically, the primary response to these challenges is the deployment of advanced digital and geoscience-based tools, including sophisticated Decision Support Systems (DSS), remote sensing and LiDAR technologies, GIS-based forest data management, and mobile applications for forest inventory. This problem-solution dynamic explains the predominance of technological (33.1%) and process (26.9%) innovations, which show clear geographic specialization reflecting national priorities, from digital forest management in Italy to climate resilience in France and bioeconomy value chains in Spain and Portugal.
The analysis consolidates these findings into four interconnected innovation domains: (i) digital forestry and data-driven management, (ii) climate adaptation and forest resilience, (iii) sustainable forest management, and (iv) bioeconomy-oriented value chains. The interplay between these domains proves that digital tools are not being developed in isolation but are instrumental in creating integrated, climate-smart solutions. We therefore assert that the EIP-AGRI Operational Group is a validated and effective model for translating EU climate policy into practice. It provides a powerful bottom-up mechanism for co-creating the tailored, territorially-embedded, and science-based responses required to enhance Europe's forest resilience and climate mitigation capacity.
How to cite: Fattoretto, I., Anzilotti, S., Caron, M., Rodríguez-García, A., Ventura, A. M., Secchi, G., Chapelet, B., Böhling, K., and Giannetti, F.: European Forests Between Digitalization and Climate Change: A Pan-European Analysis of EIP-AGRI Operational Group Innovations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11942, 2026.
Urban trees and forests provide essential ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and climate regulation, but their capacity to deliver these benefits can be compromised by increasing disturbances associated with climate change. Tree stability assessment is therefore a key component of adaptive forest and urban green infrastructure management. Visual Tree Assessment (VTA) is typically the first step in risk analysis and is sometimes complemented by instrumental methods such as dynamic and static tests. Static pulling tests provide quantitative information on anchorage and mechanical stability, but their cost and logistical complexity generally limit their application to site-specific investigations.
This study, carried out within the TREESURE project, evaluates the performance of a low-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) inclinometer for static tree tilt monitoring, with the aim of assessing its suitability for wider and longer-term deployments in support of resilience-oriented tree management. The approach combines a laboratory calibration against a geometric reference with field comparisons against a professional high-precision inclinometer commonly used in static pulling tests. In the laboratory, using a calibrated tilting beam and a 120 s averaging window, the MEMS sensor exhibited absolute errors on the order of a few hundredths of a degree, with maximum deviations of approximately 0.015°. In field conditions, comparisons were performed in the relative domain (baseline defined on the first stable plateau) along the longitudinal component, showing high concordance with the reference inclinometer.
The results demonstrate that low-cost MEMS inclinometers can provide reliable measurements for static tree tilt monitoring. Owing to their battery-powered wireless operation and simplified data processing, such sensors offer potential for scalable and continuous monitoring of tree stability. This capability may support proactive management strategies aimed at reducing storm-related tree failures, enhancing tree longevity, and indirectly contributing to the preservation of forest and urban tree carbon stocks under increasing climate-induced disturbance regimes.
How to cite: Incollu, I., Giambastiani, Y., Giachetti, A., Tognetti, T., Secchi, G., Fattoretto, I., Zorzi, I., Scriva, J., and Giannetti, F.: Validation of a Low-Cost MEMS Inclinometer for Static Tree Stability Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11666, 2026.
Climate change is transforming European forests through increasingly frequent and intense droughts, storms, pest outbreaks, wildfires, and hydro-meteorological extremes. These biophysical pressures interact with socio-economic conditions and governance arrangements in complex and context-specific ways, shaping both vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Addressing such challenges requires climate-smart forestry supported by decision-support tools and climate services that are co-produced with forest managers, public authorities, and local communities.
This study introduces an Adaptive Participatory Engagement Framework (APEF) that integrates Participatory Action Research (PAR), a structured four-stage co-creation process (co-design, co-production, co-dissemination, and co-evaluation), and governance-aware validation of socio-economic indicators across Europe. The framework was implemented in eight Case Study Areas (CSAs), selected to encompass the fourteen European Forest Types (EFTs). Drawing on multi-stage stakeholder workshops, semi-structured interviews, and iterative qualitative analysis, the study explores stakeholders’ main themes of discussions regarding climate-related forest risks, identifies socio-economic and governance constraints on adaptation, and translates these insights into necessary prerequisites for supporting the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) as a climate service and tailored management practices.
Results show that economic uncertainty is a pervasive concern across all CSAs and is strongly linked to workforce shortages and institutional fragmentation, which together limit the feasibility of adaptive silvicultural practices under climate stress. By triangulating bottom-up stakeholders’ evidence with top-down policy frameworks and governance feasibility assessments, the study delivers a validated set of socio-economic indicators and a composite Socio-Economic Index (SE-Index) suitable for DSS integration. Overall, the findings demonstrate that meaningful and scalable participatory engagement is achievable across diverse governance contexts and provide an empirically grounded pathway for the co-production of climate services and management practices to support adaptive forest management across Europe.
Acknowledgements
This research received funds from the project “OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low-carbon, climate resilient future in Europe (OptFor-EU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe programme, under Grant agreement no101060554.
How to cite: Hapa, M.-I., Tudose, N. C., Marin, M., Dobre, A. C., Zorzi, I., Cheval, S., Gotschi, E., Johannessen, M., Linser, S., Ludvig, A., Mitter, H., Riera-Spiegelhalder, M., Giannetti, F., and Popa, B.: An Adaptive Participatory Engagement Framework for the Forest–Climate Nexus: Co-Creation, Participatory Action Research, and Socio-Economic Indicator Validation Across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17032, 2026.
Forests play a crucial role in climate change mitigation by acting as long-term carbon sinks while simultaneously delivering a wide range of ecosystem services and socio-economic benefits. However, maximizing forest-based mitigation demands management strategies that explicitly integrate ecological resilience, carbon dynamics, and socio-economic performance across diverse pedoclimatic and governance contexts. This study contributes to the current debate by assessing the socio-economic implications of forest management scenarios aimed at enhancing carbon sequestration and climate resilience across a range of European forest landscapes.
In this context we combine internationally recognised sustainability criteria (FOREST EUROPE), with OptFor-EU project outcomes such as: Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators, scenario-based modelling and semi-structured interviews with 56 forest managers. The latter are used to evaluate how alternative forest management pathways influence carbon stocks, ecosystem services, and socio-economic outcomes. The analysis integrates multi-disciplinary inputs, including forest growth and carbon modelling, socio-economic indicators, and Business Model Canvas approaches, within a co-designed Decision Support System developed by OptFor-EU research team in close collaboration with forest managers and local stakeholders.
Results from 56 interviews carried out across the eight case studies (Norway, Lithuania, Austria, Germany, Romania, Spain, Italy) highlight that transitions from business-as-usual practices towards climate-smart and closer-to-nature silviculture can significantly improve carbon retention, diversify revenue streams (e.g. timber, payments for ecosystem services), and strengthen rural employment and social acceptance. At the same time, the findings underline key challenges regarding data availability for evidence-based decision-making, ownership fragmentation, and the monetisation of ecosystem services, particularly under increasing climate-related disturbances such as heat, droughts, storms, pests and wildfires increasingly frequent in Europe.
Overall, the study demonstrates that forest-based mitigation actions are most effective when ecological and socio-economic dimensions are jointly addressed through integrated modelling, stakeholders’ co-creation, and tailored decision-support tools. These insights support evidence-based forest policies and management strategies that enhance climate mitigation while safeguarding biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and socio-economic viability.
Acknowledgements
This research received funds from the project “OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low-carbon, climate resilient future in Europe (OptFor-EU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe programme, under Grant agreement no101060554.
How to cite: Zorzi, I., Fani, N., Baltranaitė, E., Cheval, S., Collalti, A., Gotschi, E., Grieco, E., Hapa, I. M., Rohde Johannessen, M., Linser, S., Ludvig, A., Marin, M., Mitter, H., Morichetti, M., Neumann, M., Riera-Spiegelhalder, M., Tudose, N. C., and Giannetti, F.: Integrating Modelling and Stakeholder Engagement to Assess Forest Management Pathways for Climate, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16841, 2026.
Forests influence local climate via biogeophysical processes, but the diurnal asymmetry of their temperature effects—and its underlying drivers—remain poorly quantified, especially in climate-sensitive transition zones. This knowledge gap hinders the climate-adaptive planning of ecological restoration programs. Using multi-source remote sensing data (2002–2023) and a pixel-pairing approach, we systematically assessed the impacts of forests on land surface temperature (LST) in the semi-arid to semi-humid transition zone of northern China. Results reveal a consistent “daytime cooling–nighttime warming” pattern: forests reduced daytime LST by –0.57 °C but increased nighttime LST by +0.43 °C, yielding a slight net daily cooling. Mechanistic analyses identified a clear diurnal driver-switch: daytime cooling was dominated by biophysiological processes (primarily enhanced evapotranspiration), whereas nighttime warming was governed by physical structural forcing, notably aerodynamic roughness-induced turbulent mixing. This was robustly evidenced by persistent nighttime warming (~ +1.4 °C) during the dormant winter when evapotranspiration was negligible. Furthermore, forest cooling capacity exhibited a nonlinear response along the aridity gradient, with an optimal climatic window (aridity index ≈ 1.3–1.6) identified in the semi-arid to semi-humid transition zone where cooling per unit water use was maximized. These findings indicate that large-scale afforestation in drier regions may face a “high water cost–low cooling” trade-off, whereas focusing restoration efforts within this climatic transition zone can optimize both climate regulation and water sustainability. Our study provides a biophysical basis for spatially optimized ecological engineering, particularly for the “Three-North Shelterbelt Program” and similar initiatives worldwide.
How to cite: Yuan, Y., Wang, P., Guo, R., Zhang, Z., Liu, J., Cao, W., and Liu, Y.: Day–Night Asymmetric Effects of Forests on Land Surface Temperature and Their Optimized Regulation in Climatic Transition Zones: A Case Study of the Semi-Arid to Semi-Humid Region of Northern China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7521, 2026.
Forests play a key role in mitigating climate change, yet their capacity to do so critically depends on their resilience to increasing climatic stressors such as drought and heat extremes. Here we aim to enhance science-based knowledge on forest resilience by applying a multi-scale research framework that integrates structural, hydrological, ecophysiological, and stakeholder perspectives at European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands in Central Germany.
In a first step, we combine terrestrial, drone-based, and airborne LiDAR technologies to comprehensively characterize three-dimensional forest structure across spatial scales. From these data, we derive indicators of forest resilience related to canopy complexity. A particular focus is placed on evaluating the robustness of LiDAR-derived metrics with respect to phenological variability and spatial resolution, ensuring their applicability for long-term monitoring and cross-site comparisons.
To link forest structure with ecosystem functioning, we investigate forest water, carbon and other biogeochemical fluxes along gradients of water availability and stand structure. In 2025 we carried out intensive measurement campaigns including detailed measurements of soil moisture at multiple depths, allowing us to assess how different stand structures influence soil water dynamics. We also measured mercury (Hg) concentration in the forest canopy for assessing Hg cycling of forests as indicator of biogeochemical resilience. We performed tree-level observations of growth and water consumption via dendrometer and sap flux sensors and combined them with ecosystem-scale measurements of CO₂, water, and energy exchange between forests and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique for ecophysiological indicators of forest resilience.
Complementing these biophysical assessments, we integrate a socio-ecological dimension through qualitative interviews with forest stakeholders. This allows us to evaluate stakeholder assessments of the status quo, their visions for resilient forests, and the specific requirements for a successful transformation toward those goals.
By integrating multiple indicators derived from measurements across spatial, temporal, and social scales, we provide a broad assessment of forest resilience. Our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of how forest structure mediates water and carbon fluxes under climate stress, supporting the development of resilient forest management strategies and improved monitoring approaches for climate change mitigation that are both scientifically robust and stakeholder-informed.
How to cite: Knohl, A., Ammer, C., Beyer, M., Biester, H., Dobelmann, S., Drohmen, S., Drollinger, S., Hackmann, C., Klosterhalfen, A., Kößler, A.-K., Magdon, P., Markwitz, C., Oskamp, L., and Stangenberg, L.: Assessing forest resilience using multiple indicators: integrating structural, hydrological, ecophysiological, and stakeholder perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14020, 2026.
