PICO
We invite contributions that move beyond static assumptions and address nonstationarity, compounding events, and cascading failures. Hazard regimes are changing, and their interactions can amplify impacts in the built environment. Submissions that analyze triggers, propagation, and recovery processes are particularly welcome.
Exposure is growing as urbanization intensifies, economies expand, and infrastructure networks densify, yet its spatio-temporal dynamics remain under-characterized. We encourage work that maps and models exposure trajectories under shared socio-economic pathways, evaluates the effectiveness and unintended consequences of mitigation and land-use measures, and explores how mobility, land-use change, and supply-chain linkages redistribute risk.
Understanding the vulnerability of elements at risk is crucial, because it governs the severity of impacts from climate hazards and is key to reducing future losses. The challenges of the Anthropocene require widening definitions and assessing shifts across multiple interacting hazards and contexts to address the multidimensional, dynamic character of vulnerability. However, the growing complexity of managing multiple domains, scales, and disciplines can impede holistic perspectives. We welcome studies that integrate socio-ecological, behavioral, engineering, institutional, and contextual information. Interdisciplinary and mixed-method approaches that bridge datasets and improve data interoperability, validation of vulnerability functions, and synthesis of evidence are encouraged.
We aim to foster transferable, adaptive risk management that connects landscape processes with human activities and supports equitable climate adaptation. By integrating the dynamics of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, this session advances coherent pathways to manage climate risk in the Anthropocene.
Granular socioeconomic vulnerability drivers of impacts during extreme weather events remain poorly understood. Global climate vulnerability indices are usually only available at the national level, and the reporting of observed impacts is still unsystematic. By combining human impact data reported at subnational levels from the international disaster database EM-DAT and the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index, we ask ourselves whether the granularity of this data can be used to improve our understanding of disaster outcomes and in turn help to identify adaptation priorities. Here, we quantitatively show that higher multidimensional deprivation leads to larger human impacts per people exposed during floods, storms and droughts between 2010-2020. Due to gaps in EM-DAT reporting, these conclusions cannot be drawn for heatwaves, wildfires and landslides. Our global spatial analysis reveals that subnational areas more deprived than respective national means experience larger human impacts (for floods), while very local variability in deprivation (∼1 km spatial resolution) leads to lower impacts. The multidimensionality of the deprivation index allows to identify concrete socioeconomic factors that can be more effectively addressed, such as the levels of health or the specific age distribution of a population. While improvements are still needed to fully quantify the complex nature of climate vulnerability and rigorously track impacts from extreme weather events, understanding the main socioeconomic factors driving vulnerability at local levels allows to support policies, strategically plan adaptation and address losses and damages through tailored approaches.
How to cite: Theokritoff, E., Otto, F., Rogelj, J., and Toumi, R.: Global quantification of subnational vulnerability drivers of human impacts from extreme weather events, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12471, 2026.
This study examines the relationship between vulnerability and resilience concerning flash flood risk in Castilla y León, Spain. It compares vulnerability and resilience indices and examines their relationships with variables related to flash flood risk. It also discusses improving assessments through a multidimensional approach, which includes social, economic, ecosystemic, physical, institutional, and cultural dimensions. Our approach uses statistical and spatial techniques, including Spearman correlations, bivariate choropleth maps, and regression models. Results show that vulnerability and resilience are related but distinct concepts. The correlation between their indices is weak (r = 0.06), but there are significant correlations between specific elements. For instance, the resilience index and the exposure component of the vulnerability correlate significantly (r = 0.40). Spatial regressions show a local R2 value of 0.74 between the resilience index and vulnerability dimensions. Some elements of vulnerability are also significantly correlated to certain variables related to flash flood risk. These are mostly the exposure component (r = 0.59 for the population at risk) and the institutional dimension (r = −0.48 for the total flood indemnities provided by the insurance company). With a local R2 of 0.85, the vulnerability and resilience indices show significant spatial regression with the critical infrastructure at risk. These results highlight the need for improved assessments of resilience and vulnerability especially adapted for local contexts. This emphasizes the need of a multidimensional approach combining theoretical frameworks with practical applications to guide future research initiatives and inform policymakers.
How to cite: Bodoque del Pozo, J. M.: Enhancing understanding of vulnerability and resilience to flash floods through comparative analysis of multidimensional indices, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17361, 2026.
Hydro-climatic hazards in India are intensifying, amplifying socioeconomic disruption and widening regional inequalities, consistent with recent IPCC AR5 and AR6 findings. Yet socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) assessments remain methodologically inconsistent, subjective, and rarely validated. This study advances applied geographic research by improving spatially explicit vulnerability assessment and enabling evidence-based regional planning through the first standardized, statistically evaluated, and fully reproducible national-scale SEV assessment framework for India. Using the latest district-level Census data, we construct multicollinearity-tested composite indicators—derived from fractions and percentages rather than raw variables—to represent socioeconomic dimensions relevant to hydro-climatic (flood and multi-hazard) risk. A novel dual-scenario structure is introduced: a sensitive scenario capturing exposure–susceptibility, and an adaptive scenario capturing resilience–capacity. A complementary socioeconomic sustainability layer represents long-term demographic and structural pressures often overlooked in existing frameworks. To reduce subjectivity in methodological choice, the study conducts a comprehensive comparative evaluation of SEV methods, testing major approaches, including six variants of Data Envelopment Analysis and commonly used alternatives. A rigorous geospatial evaluation protocol applies standardized diagnostics—probability distribution fitting, coefficient of variation, Gini index, Moran’s I, and indicator-perturbation sensitivity analysis. Results show Pareto ranking is the most stable, conservative, and spatially coherent method. Principal component and variance-based factor analyses identify dominant drivers, including marginal workforce share, non-working population proportion, household density, and population density. The India-wide SEV map highlights coherent spatial clusters and major hotspots across heatwave-prone (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh) and flood-prone (West Bengal, Odisha, Assam) regions. Overall, the study presents a validated, bias-free SEV assessment system to support evidence-based DRR planning and climate adaptation.
How to cite: Chakraborty, A., Ghosh, S., and Karmakar, S.: A National-scale Comparative Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment for Hydro-Climatic Disaster Risk Reduction in India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-975, 2026.
Extreme hydrometeorological events have intensified dramatically in Southern Brazil, with the catastrophic floods of April-May 2024 representing the worst climate disaster in Rio Grande do Sul's history, affecting 478 municipalities (96% of the state), causing 183 deaths, and displacing over 580,000 people. This unprecedented event, combined with recurrent flooding episodes including the October 2015 event in Pelotas region, underscores the urgent need for integrated risk assessment frameworks and climate adaptation strategies in vulnerable coastal territories. This research investigates socio-environmental vulnerability and extreme event exposure in Pontal da Barra, a coastal settlement in Pelotas (RS), employing advanced geotechnologies and multi-criteria decision analysis to support evidence-based climate resilience policies. The study area represents a critical case of compounded vulnerability: informal settlements in Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs), wetland degradation, inadequate infrastructure, lowincome populations, and direct exposure to flooding, storm surges, and sea-level rise impacts. The methodological framework integrates: (i) high-precision geodetic surveys using GNSS-RTK and aerial photogrammetry via RPAS/drones at 60m altitude; (ii) extreme event inventory and impact analysis from Civil Defense records (2000-2024); (iii) multitemporal land-use change assessment (MapBiomas 1985-2023) revealing wetland loss and urban expansion patterns; (iv) socioeconomic data from IBGE Census 2022 and Brazilian Water Agency (ANA); and (v) community perception surveys addressing extreme event experiences, preparedness levels, and adaptive strategies through structured Likert-scale questionnaires. The vulnerability assessment employs the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and Pressure and Release (PAR) model through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) in QGIS environment. Key variables include: extreme event exposure (historical flood zones, rainfall intensity patterns, proximity to water bodies, topographic elevation from Digital Elevation Models), social sensitivity (income levels, educational attainment, demographic density, housing precariousness, vulnerable age groups), and adaptive capacity (early warning system access, infrastructure quality, land tenure security, community organization). Preliminary results from 80% completed planialtimetric surveys and 60% aerial mapping reveal critical spatial patterns linking historical extreme events to vulnerability hotspots. Analysis indicates that areas experiencing the 2015 floods show continued high-risk occupation, inadequate drainage systems, and limited post-disaster recovery interventions. The 2024 mega-disaster has reinforced these patterns, demonstrating how climate change amplifies vulnerability in territories lacking adequate risk governance and territorial planning. The study proposes Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) as primary adaptation measures: wetland restoration for flood buffering capacity, green infrastructure for stormwater management, riparian forest recovery for erosion control, and ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction strategies. Additionally, recommendations include early
warning system enhancement, community-based monitoring networks, and riskinformed territorial zoning integrated with municipal master plans and climate adaptation policies. These findings directly support CRIEC's strategic mission of developing innovative solutions for extreme climate events and strengthening Rio Grande do Sul's capacity as an international hub for climate science and disaster response. The transdisciplinary framework provides replicable methodologies for risk assessment in climate-vulnerable coastal territories across Latin America and similar contexts globally.
How to cite: Leandro, D., Parada Sampaio, T., Martins Tavares, L., Aldrighi da Silva, L., and Araujo Rodrigues, A.: Socio-Environmental Vulnerability And ExtremeHydrometeorological Events In Coastal Urban Settlements: Geotechnological Approaches For Climate Adaptation In Southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12705, 2026.
Urban vulnerability frameworks play a central role in shaping flood risk assessments and informing adaptation strategies. However, in deprived urban areas (DUAs), these frameworks are often derived from literature-driven concepts that insufficiently capture how flood impacts are experienced in contexts characterized by informality, service deficits, and structural marginalization. This study builds on our prior flood exposure research conducted in six Sub-Saharan African cities – Nairobi, Kisumu, Accra, Tema, Beira, and Chimoio – which findings challenged the dominant flood risk logic that low flood depths equate to minimal impacts. In DUAs, shallow floods were found to cause severe disruptions, including disease outbreaks and damage to properties and infrastructure, highlighting limitations in conventional flood risk framings.
Motivated by these insights, this study empirically co-develops and critically assesses a flood vulnerability framework by systematically comparing the vulnerability domains identified in literature with those emerging from citizen science. We adopt a participatory mixed-methods approach grounded in the lived experience of DUA residents. Empirical data were generated through impact chain analyses conducted in 21 participatory workshops involving residents, local practitioners, and civil society actors across the six cities. Workshop outputs were analysed using grounded theory coding to identify vulnerability domains and sub-domains, resulting in an empirical framework. In parallel, a scoping review of 57 peer-reviewed flood vulnerability studies in African DUAs published between 2005 and 2025 was conducted to extract literature-based vulnerability domains. The two frameworks were systematically compared to identify convergences, divergences, and blind spots, resulting in a comprehensive flood vulnerability framework tailored to DUA contexts, validated through an online questionnaire with local stakeholders (n=15) to assess interpretability and relevance.
Results reveal strong alignment for commonly associated vulnerability domains, such as physical environment and spatial factors, but also systematic contrasts. Literature places greater emphasis on governance, economic and socially stratified factors, which are often well suited for comparisons between deprived and non-deprived contexts but less effective for differentiation within DUAs. In contrast, empirically derived domains emphasize everyday practices and conditions through community actions and local awareness systems, pointing to the context-dependent aspect of vulnerability. The findings also suggest that dimensions central in empirical accounts, such as livelihood conditions, remain largely absent or weakly integrated in existing frameworks. The resulting co-developed framework repositions how flood vulnerability is understood in deprived urban contexts by improving contextual relevance and completeness. The findings demonstrate the value of participatory knowledge production for refining vulnerability frameworks an supports the development of more inclusive and meaningful urban flood research in data-scarce urban contexts.
How to cite: Trento Oliveira, L., Dijkstra, A. M., Belgiu, M., Campomanes V, F., and Kuffer, M.: Co-developing flood vulnerability frameworks for deprived urban contexts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9691, 2026.
Climate change-amplified flooding poses severe risks to urban underground infrastructures, increasing exposure and vulnerability in densely populated cities. Motivated by the observation that current assessment methods may underestimate the impact of human motions in floodwaters on pedestrian evacuation safety, while traditional evacuation designs primarily focus on individual behavior, neglecting the critical influence of group dynamics and collective decision-making during real flood events. To address these gaps, this study develops an agent-based dynamic vulnerability model for pedestrians exposed to floodwaters, supported by a full-scale instrumented physical model to capture interactive and dynamic evacuation behaviors. The model incorporates group interactions, formation patterns, and hydrodynamic forces acting on pedestrians during evacuation. Analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics of pedestrian movement reveals significant variations in stability: walking against the flow increases instability and overall vulnerability, whereas moving with the flow reduces hydrodynamic forces, though this effect diminishes with increasing water depth. Preliminary results also indicate that group dynamics significantly influence evacuation efficiency: larger spacing between pedestrians mitigates hydrodynamic impacts and enhances evacuation performance, while lateral formations experience higher hydrodynamic forces compared with longitudinal formations, reducing overall efficiency. Integration of the multi-agent model into a hydrodynamic simulation framework enables comprehensive risk assessment and management of underground infrastructure under extreme flooding, facilitating identification of optimal evacuation timing and routing strategies. This framework provides practical guidance for designing flood-resilient underground spaces and contributes a novel approach for dynamic vulnerability assessment in climate-adaptive cities.
How to cite: Li, Q., Liang, D., and Hinkelmann, R.: Agent-Based Dynamic Vulnerability Model for Pedestrians Exposed to Floodwaters in Critical Infrastructures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20484, 2026.
Flooding is a known and increasing risk under a changing climate, especially in urban areas where greater proportions of populations now reside, with predictions only showing this to continue to increase. However, climate change is driving an increase in the frequency and intensity of periods of extreme rainfall and thus the likelihood of ‘flash flood’ events, as seen by a number of such events throughout Europe and the globe, in recent year. It is in urban areas where the greatest levels of exposure to such events occur, where population is the greatest and most dense, and it also these areas which change the most, particularly with urban expansion to accommodate the growing demands for residential units. However, most current modelling work fails to account for these different drivers; (a) changes in urban form through urban expansion and (b) model climate induce uplifts to storm intensities and durations. Therefore, these results may mis-represent or mis-capture the true levels of exposure and risk to the population in these areas.
In our work we address these issues through employing a 2D high-resolution hydrodynamic flood model, CityCAT, coupled with an urban development model, UDM, which can generate plausible building level scenarios of urban growth. This approach allows our modelling to not only capture both the changes in extreme rainfall but also changes in the urban landscape at building level and explore the relationships between these as drivers for urban flooding and it’s potential impacts in the future. Additionally, we are able also look at the impact of adaptation, such as green infrastructure, on the outcomes of extreme rainfall and the subsequent flood events in the urban landscape as a method of reducing exposure and risk.
Applying to this to a number of cities in Great Britian, we use a downscaled UK specific version of the Global SSPs (Socio-Economic Pathways) to model plausible urban change outcomes at building level scale, using this to then also update land-use scenarios in the hydrodynamic model. Together when coupled with rainfall storm profiles using uplift values, we are able to investigate the outcome of both these drivers, climate and urban change, on flood outcomes for future scenarios, including changes in economic damages and exposure levels, in urban areas.
Our results therefore explore the interplay between climate change and urban development on the impacts of exposure to flooding events, and the extent to which adaptation measures can play a role in reducing these. While the results show changes in flood extents, potential economic damages and exposure, they also show the influence of the analysed drivers and how these can vary and therefore highlight the need for city-specific analysis.
How to cite: Robson, C., Butters, O., Glenis, V., Iliadis, C., Ford, A., and Dawson, R.: Exploring the extent to which climate change and urban growth both influence future urban flood events, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14738, 2026.
Flood-risk assessments increasingly rely on large-scale building inventories that offer fine spatial detail but limited and uneven quality assurance. As a result, exposure is often treated as a static, “ready-to-use” input, even though small errors in where assets are located or how they are characterized can propagate into loss estimates. Despite the centrality of exposure for understanding changing risk under climate and socio-economic change, the implications of adopting exposure data without refinement remain poorly quantified. Here, we test how exposure data quality influences flood-loss estimates and decision-relevant metrics by comparing damages derived from a widely used national building inventory to estimates produced with high-quality, feature-rich local building data across an ensemble of flood scenarios. We find that adopting an unrefined building inventory can systematically distort decision-relevant damage metrics. For example, roughly one-fifth of areas are misclassified with respect to a funding priority status metric used in the U.S. Simple, transferable exposure refinements—particularly corrections to building locations—substantially reduce these errors, yielding near-complete agreement with rankings based on high-quality local data. Our findings demonstrate that credible assessments of flood risk require explicit attention to the spatio-temporal reliability of exposure inputs, not only improved hazard characterization or vulnerability functions. We provide actionable guidance for diagnosing exposure errors and implementing practical corrections.
How to cite: Pollack, A., Srikrishnan, V., Benedict, J., Deb, M., Doss-Gollin, J., Judi, D., Lehman, W., Lutz, N., Reesman, C., Sarazen, E., Son, Y., Sun, N., and Keller, K.: Unrefined national building inventories can mislead risk assessments and decisions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7671, 2026.
Disasters emerge out of the imposition of natural hazard phenomena on socio-ecological systems. Their creation, however, lies in the constraining of abilities to anticipate, cope, and recover in the face of natural hazard threats. The persistence of continually constrained capacities to cope lends itself to the inevitability of disaster. Although post-disaster landscapes have been highlighted as sites of risk (re)creation, rebuilding efforts’ contributions to the creation of disaster risk continue to be overlooked in literature and practice. Measuring ‘project success’ through narrow and selective criteria, while ignoring the significance of risk creation, is insufficient for ensuring those receiving housing assistance are afforded equitable capacities to evade conditions of risk. We draw on field observations, interviews, project documents, and hazard data to assess projects’ risk contributions and interrogate the creation of risk across 10 housing reconstruction projects in multi-hazard settings in Indonesia. Using a comparative case analysis, we find divergences in employed governance techniques and set these against each projects’ observed risk contributions. Given the conditions surrounding funding receipt, communities have had to accept implementing authorities’ conceptions of ‘safe’ housing or ‘safe’ locations despite overlooked hazard potentialities. Such tendencies in project governance are considered against the observed risk contributions of the project to demonstrate how the select prioritisation and projection of risk discourses creates risk for housing beneficiaries. This research uncovers means towards resisting risk-creating practices by deconstructing and making tangible risk-inducing tendencies in housing reconstruction. The articulated approach has the potential to reshape project design and evaluation protocols to avert risk-creating practices and hold practitioners accountable towards those embodying unjustly distributed risk.
How to cite: Muir, G., Opdyke, A., Awaludin, A., Idris, Y., and Naderpajouh, N.: (Re)Constructing Disaster Risk: Making Housing Reconstruction Projects’ Disaster Risk Contributions Tangible, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1198, 2026.
People-centred risk modelling requires the explicit consideration of both people-centred vulnerability and disaster-related personal needs, based on the individual characteristics of a population. This type of modelling can be used to characterize risk in terms that facilitate targeted, equitable decision-making on interventions for reducing the impacts associated with extreme natural events. For instance, it can be used to guide the implementation of back-up power supply at locations where people rely on electrically powered life-sustaining equipment in their homes or structural measures to protect low-income residential buildings of people who cannot use savings to cover disaster losses. Several bottlenecks prevent these types of models from being easily applied in practice: (1) their data-intensive nature, as they require rich information on the population of interest; and (2) (closely related to 1), their high level of context specificity, given that relevant personal needs and people-centred vulnerability characteristics are inherently localized. Here, we discuss actionable measures to overcome these challenges, relaying our experience of applying a people-centred risk model to hazard-prone, socially vulnerable areas of cities in Europe. The first step of our model application procedure comprises a participatory process with relevant actors, who provide necessary social context and identify the local needs of interest related to natural hazard events. The outputs of this process are then used to guide the collection of appropriate (physical and people-centred) exposure and vulnerability data for risk modelling, and to develop suitable risk metrics that are then disaggregated on the basis of important population characteristics as part of the risk calculations. We demonstrate how this type of practical, people-centred risk modelling approach can be used to provide decision-makers with suitable quantitative evidence to support the implementation of equitable, cost-effective risk reduction measures.
How to cite: Schotten, R. and Cremen, G.: Integration of People-centred and Physical Vulnerabilities into Risk Modelling for People-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7875, 2026.
Urban infrastructure is fundamental to the continuous functioning of urban systems. Nevertheless, the failure of a single facility can propagate through highly interconnected networks, triggering cascading effects that amplify disruptions and increase system-wide vulnerability. Despite these risks, existing studies primarily emphasize the direct exposure of individual assets, rarely incorporating cross-sectoral dependencies or indirect infrastructure failures into comprehensive assessments of urban flood resilience.
To address this gap, this study investigates urban flood resilience by explicitly accounting for the cascading effects of critical infrastructure failures. This study establishes a time-varying Flood Resilience Index (FRI) by integrating physical, socioeconomic, and infrastructure factors. To systematically quantify the interactions among four critical systems—water, electricity, transportation, and telecommunications—a network-based approach is employed. In this framework, infrastructure components are defined as nodes, while their functional dependencies are mapped as edges. This structure facilitates the simulation of cascading failure propagation and analyzes how these disruptions degrade overall urban resilience over time. By quantifying both direct physical damage and dependency-induced indirect failures, this study characterizes the dynamic response of the urban system during flood events.
The proposed framework provides a systematic approach for evaluating how infrastructure dependency risks impact urban flood resilience. By capturing the temporal evolution of cascading failures, the time-varying FRI supports the prioritization of resilience enhancement strategies. The findings offer actionable decision support for disaster planning, emergency response, and urban operation management.
How to cite: Cheng, Y. T. and Ho, H.-C.: Time-Varying Assessment of Urban Flood Resilience considering Cascading Infrastructure Effects: Case Study of Neihu District, Taipei, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3404, 2026.
As climate change increases flood hazard and socioeconomic dynamics reshape patterns of exposure and vulnerability, flood risk financing strategies are under intense debate. In Austria, where floods are among the most frequent and costliest hazards, the public sector often acts as the insurer of last resort, a role increasingly challenged amidst growing fiscal stress. Proposals for mandatory risk insurance and alternative burden-sharing schemes are discussed. However, the implications of these schemes on economy-wide and within-country distributional outcomes remain poorly understood.
This study examines the dynamic interplay of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability and its economy-wide and distributional consequences in Austria. We ask: who bears the cost of current and future flood risk and how do alternative risk financing schemes modify outcomes under climate and socioeconomic change?
Hazard dynamics are represented through climate scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), while exposure and vulnerability evolve along socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP4), capturing dynamics in spatial development, economic growth and inequality. Methodologically, we couple high-resolution physical flood risk projections with a recursive-dynamic, single-country computable general equilibrium model for Austria, solved annually from 2015 to 2080. Flood damages are derived from GLOFRIS at 1 km resolution and matched with Austrian administrative microdata. Households are differentiated by region (urban, suburban, rural), income quartile, and flood exposure, resulting in 24 representative households. This structure enables a detailed representation of exposure patterns and vulnerability in terms of income, consumption, and recovery capacity. Flood impacts enter the model as forced reconstruction expenditures that reduce welfare-relevant consumption. We analyze three flood risk financing schemes: (i) a risk-based scheme where exposed households fully self-finance recovery, (ii) a government-supported scheme reflecting public co-financing similar to the Austrian Katastrophenfonds, and (iii) a solidarity-based scheme in which recovery costs are shared across all households proportional to income.
Results vary across regions, income groups and SSPs. Under risk-based burden sharing, flood-exposed rural households in the lowest income quartile face welfare losses of 4% in SSP2 - rising to 9% in SSP4 – while urban households lose only 0.5–1%. Government-supported burden sharing reduces regressivity by easing the burden on flood-exposed households. However, this comes at the cost of government consumption and public goods provision. Spillover effects extend to non-exposed households as reconstruction reshapes demand patterns, with impacts on relative factor prices and thus incomes. This generates indirect gains and losses that depend on households’ income composition. As a result, high-income households benefit from rising returns to capital while lower incomes relying primarily on labor and transfer income face additional pressures. Solidarity-based burden sharing distributes losses according to purchasing power rather than exposure, mitigating regressive outcomes, at the expense of GDP and aggregate welfare, highlighting a potential efficiency-equity trade-off.
By integrating flood projections with possible configurations of exposure, vulnerability and risk management strategies, the approach reveals the economy-wide mechanisms shaping within-country patterns of future flood risk.
How to cite: Preinfalk, E., Bachner, G., and Knittel, N.: Spreading the risk, sharing the burden – Economy-wide and distributional impacts of flood risk financing under climate and socioeconomic change, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14072, 2026.
Rajasthan’s arid regions represent some of India’s most climate-sensitive zones, where recurrent droughts, water scarcity, and fragile ecosystems challenge long-term sustainability. With climate change intensifying these pressures, systematic evaluation of vulnerabilities is essential for guiding adaptive planning. This study develops an integrated framework to assess environmental and geo-hazard risks while emphasising the need for coordinated responses across environmental, socio-economic, and infrastructural domains. By merging the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, a composite vulnerability index was constructed from 47 indicators grouped into three weighted components: environmental (14), socio-economic (20), and infrastructure (13). The analysis shows that socio-economic vulnerability is highest (0.38), followed by infrastructure (0.35) and environment (0.29), yielding a composite index of 0.34. Consistency testing (ratio = -0.017) confirmed the robustness of results. GIS-based mapping further revealed spatial disparities in vulnerability, providing critical insights for localized planning. These findings highlight that human systems in arid regions remain more exposed than ecological or physical infrastructures. The study recommends climate-proof farming practices, water preservation initiatives, and community-based adaptation measures. Implementing such strategies can strengthen resilience, align regional development with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 11, 13, 15, and 17), and foster sustainable futures across Rajasthan.
How to cite: De, M., Dhote, M., and Dey, S.: Resilient Rajasthan: Aligning Climate and Geo-Hazard Insights for Sustainable Planning and Futures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7626, 2026.
We investigate dynamic changes in heatwave-related risk across European regions by leveraging digital social sensing data, specifically Google search interest for heat-related topics. We do this by analyzing high temperature events at national and weekly scales from 2010 to 2019, categorizing them based on high versus low search interest, and contrasting functional temperature-mortality relationships across these event types. This approach allows us to assess how vulnerability evolves not only before but also during high temperature events, moving beyond static representations most common in previous analyses. Given the increased frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves due to climate change, mitigation strategies across Europe have evolved. However, residual risk remains, particularly with regard to inefficiencies in communication and behavioural responses. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the dynamic relationships and interactions among risk drivers, particularly the vulnerability component. We employ all-cause mortality data from Eurostat and temperature data from the E-OBS, we focus on NUTS-level regions across Europe to evaluate the potential of information-seeking indicators in capturing real-time shifts in societal risk to extreme heat.
Preliminary findings reveal divergent patterns in all-cause mortality outcomes for similar temperatures but given differences in the intensity of concurrent information-seeking behaviour. This is found across all considered information themes and across climatic and socio-demographic gradients. Notably, regions with lower population density tend to have higher mortality rates during periods of high information-seeking behaviour compared to periods of low information seeking. The opposite is observed for areas with higher population density. This suggests the importance of potential mediating contextual factors, such as urbanisation and adaptive capacity. Further testing of the influence of pre-event information-seeking patterns revealed generally weak and non-significant effects. These results highlight the importance of regional factors and emphasise the value of real-time, during-event information-seeking patterns. Overall, our results emphasise the need to consider dynamic public awareness and population-level information-seeking behaviour in heat risk assessments. The use of social-sensing data emerges as a promising approach to capture these processes, offering actionable, open insights for sustainable resilience strategies in response to heatwaves and other hazards.
How to cite: De Polt, K., de Ruiter, M., Ward, P., and Orth, R.: Towards Real-Time Assessment of Heatwave Risk via Information-Seeking, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6887, 2026.
Marine and terrestrial heatwave events can cause devasting impacts on ecosystems, species, climatic processes, and have the potential to cascade into greater socioeconomic damages and crises for humans. Terrestrial and marine heatwaves have been extensively researched separately, yet substantially fewer attempts have been made to investigate co-occurring extreme heat events over the land and ocean for coastal regions. The few studies investigating co-occurring marine and terrestrial heatwaves have been regionally focused analyses mainly exploring trends, mechanisms/drivers, or specific impacts. These studies have allowed for a strong foundation in the understanding of the hazard. However, the point in which natural hazards transform into devasting social disasters depends on the exposure and vulnerability of societies to such hazards.
Currently, there is a lack of risk assessments for compound ocean-land extremes. This research aims to tackle this gap, by investigating how the risk of compound marine and terrestrial/atmospheric heatwaves has evolved over the historical period taking into account dynamic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Using observation-based and reanalysis climate data, we first identify the co-occurrence of compound marine and terrestrial heatwaves for three key coastal regions (Iberian coastal region, Humboldt Coast, and California Coast). We chose to represent exposure and vulnerability with three components, one for each of the affected systems (human, land and marine). For example, exposure is represented by integrating population density, cropland fraction, and total fishery catch in each grid cell. Likewise, vulnerability is represented by integrating proxy indicators such as population age structure, irrigated and rainfed crop fraction, small and large total fishery catch fraction, and human development index. Specifically designing the exposure and vulnerability indices with components of all three affected systems, our risk assessment is uniquely tailored for coastal compound marine and terrestrial heatwaves. In doing so, we contribute to holistic climate research by integrating terrestrial, oceanic, and human elements to improve the relevance of scientific climate knowledge for decision makers to better manage future risks.
Funded by the European Union (WorldTrans, GA 101081661). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 - https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020 , UID/50019/2025, https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025, UID/PRR2/50019/2025
How to cite: Li, C., Trigo, R., Russo, A., and Köberle, A. C.: Compound marine and terrestrial heatwave risks in coastal regions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16042, 2026.
Geological heritage, geological conservation, and efforts dedicated to preserving our planet's geological heritage have gained significant global recognition. However, these areas, which protect the natural heritage shaped by ancient Earth forces, represent a fragile patrimony that is constantly under threat. As a modern concept with deep historical roots, geological heritage requires the systematic identification and evaluation of sites as a basis for effective management. In Neamț County, Romania, a remarkable yet vulnerable geological heritage awaits protection, including landmarks such as the Munticelu and Toșorog caves, the imposing natural monuments of Piatra Teiului and Stânca Șerbești, and valuable paleontological reserves, such as Cozla and Pietricica. Despite their importance, these sites lack a coordinated conservation strategy and are vulnerable to natural degradation and human activities. To remedy this critical gap, our study conducts an in-depth assessment, quantifying their vulnerability to geomorphological processes, weathering, and anthropogenic impact. We complement this with a practical assessment of tourist accessibility using GIS and terrain modelling, also considering the scientific, educational, and tourist potential of each site.
The results are both a warning and an opportunity. They reveal a high risk of degradation, particularly for the fossil-rich paleontological site from Cozla Mountain. Yet, they simultaneously highlight the region's strong suitability for sustainable geotourism development. This dual insight underscores an urgent need: to transform vulnerability into value by implementing robust, science-based strategies that can preserve Neamț County's unique geological story for future generations, turning its heritage into a cornerstone for education and mindful tourism.
How to cite: Cimpoeșu, M. C., Necula, N., Grădianu, I., and Grozavu, A.: Safeguarding Geoheritage in a Changing World: An interdisciplinary assessment of the value and vulnerability for Neamț County's geosites, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13936, 2026.
