New frontiers in satellite monitoring—from Low Earth Orbit to geostationary platforms—combined with chemical transport models and artificial intelligence, now allow unprecedented accuracy in characterizing pollution sources, dynamics, and health outcomes. At the same time, integrative frameworks linking atmospheric science, epidemiology, and socio-economic analysis are essential for informing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.
This interdisciplinary session invites studies that advance understanding of atmospheric composition, air quality, and health through innovative observations, modeling, and AI applications. We especially encourage contributions that explore climate–air quality–health interactions, quantify health and economic burdens, develop early-warning systems, and provide policy-relevant insights. The session aims to foster cross-disciplinary collaboration to support evidence-based decision-making for cleaner air and healthier societies.
Orals: Fri, 8 May, 10:45–12:30 | Room 1.61/62
Satellite observations showed the increase of the aerosol optical depth (AOD, a measure for the aerosol burden), over China at the end of the previous century, continuing until about 2007 and decreasing after 2011/2014. The initial increase, in response to economic growth and urbanization, was mitigated by the successive implementation of a series of emission reduction policy measures that resulted in strong AOD variations between 2007 and 2014, followed by a substantial AOD decrease after the implementation of the 2013 - 2017 Clean Air Action Plan. However, AOD time series show that the reductions were cancelled or even reversed over extended periods of time when the AOD increased. Model simulations show that these variations can be attributed to influences of unfavorable meteorological effects on the AOD which become stronger as AOD decreases. Further analysis shows the different effects of the occurrences of El Niño and La Niña on the AOD, in addition to economic effects. Furthermore, the emission reductions result not only in the decrease of aerosols but also affect the concentrations of precursor gases, both direct and through the chemical balance which effects the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As a result, aerosol composition changes occur which in turn affect aerosol optical properties. Changes in both concentrations and optical properties provide a plausible explanation for satellite observations of changes in AOD patterns. The reduction of aerosol concentrations reduces both the direct effect of aerosols and indirect effects on the Earth radiative balance.
How to cite: de Leeuw, G., Fan, C., Yan, X., Dong, J., Kang, H., Fan, C., Li, Z., and Zhang, Y.: Satellite-derived spatio-temporal variations of aerosol properties over China: competing anthropogenic and meteorological effects, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2423, 2026.
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are critical precursors to tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area. This study presents an integrated characterization of VOCs across complementary observation platforms: ground-based networks, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and satellite remote sensing.
Ground-based measurements at multiple archetypical sites reveal distinct VOC pollution profiles, which identifies persistent anthropogenic sources and seasonal photochemical formation patterns. UAV deployments extend spatial coverage and enable vertical profiling of VOC distributions, capturing intra-urban variability. Satellite retrievals provide diurnal atmospheric composition data, advancing detection of weakly absorbing reactive trace gases.
Integrated risk assessment frameworks quantify environmental and health implications of VOC pollution across different urban archetypes. This multi-platform approach demonstrates the feasibility of combining disparate observation systems to advance VOC characterization, source apportionment, and air quality management in rapidly developing coastal regions.
How to cite: Gu, D. and Ning, Z.: Multi-Platform VOC Observations in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area: Bridging Ground, UAV, and Satellite Data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16515, 2026.
Bottom-up emission inventories often miss day-to-week variability, especially during extreme events, and they can also omit or underestimate sources that are sporadic, poorly monitored, or rapidly changing. Here we present a joint NO2-CO remote-sensing constraint framework designed to diagnose these problems in a consistent way across regions and scales. The framework leverages the complementary information content of NO2 (short-lived, strongly tied to local sources) and CO (longer-lived, sensitive to both combustion and atmospheric transport) to separate local emission signals from meteorology-driven redistribution, and to flag conditions where inventories are likely biased.
First, we use joint NO2-CO signals to constrain plume injection and vertical placement, showing that simple plume-rise formulations can systematically underestimate injection heights (by ~33% on average) and that NO2 and CO terms are essential predictors for capturing free-tropospheric lofting. Second, we apply top-down constraints on daily-to-weekly emissions to reproduce observed extremes in the Monsoon Asia free troposphere, where matching the magnitude and spatial reach of events requires substantially larger effective emissions. Third, we extend the concept to broader spatial domains, using satellite-derived NO2 and CO to estimate emission variability with uncertainty bounds and to identify missing or underestimated sources; the inferred extra CO can further translate into non-negligible CO2 mass equivalents through oxidation, highlighting a coupled air-quality–carbon implication.
A China-focused application illustrates how vertical information improves attribution: incorporating MOPITT vertical profiles strengthens surface–column consistency across 1577 sites and reveals episodes in which CO from major urban sources (e.g., Xi’an) is lofted to ~500 hPa and transported >2000 km downwind. Overall, the proposed NO2-CO constraint framework provides a practical route to evaluate and refine emission inventories under extreme conditions, while explicitly accounting for vertical transport and source intermittency, while also helping models to better close the missing carbon budget.
How to cite: Wang, S., Guan, L., Cohen, J., and Qin, K.: A Joint Satellite NO2-CO Constraint Framework Reveals Emission Biases Driven by Extreme Events and Missing Sources in Emission Inventories, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6110, 2026.
China has achieved substantial reductions in air pollutant concentrations through multiple effective control measures, yet severe pollution episodes remain a persistent challenge. Meanwhile, climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in China, including dust storms in spring, heatwaves and heavy rainfall in summer, and cold extremes in winter, which pose significant health risks due to the combined exposure to air pollution and extreme weather. Such combined exposures are of particular concern in the densely populated North China Plain region, challenging traditional management strategies that focus on either criteria air pollutants or temperature alone.
With experts from meteorology, air pollution, and health in our team, this interdisciplinary study aims to investigate health risks in the North China Plain under the combined influence of air pollution and climate change. First, we quantify personal exposure to both metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) using advanced techniques, including wearable compound exposure sensors, high-resolution and filter-based personal exposure samplers (PES), and highly sensitive analytical methods capable of quantifying trace metals using micro-synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence analysis and organic pollutants using thermal desorption–gas chromatography–time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TD–GC–TOFMS) at very low concentrations. Second, in order to identify major sources contributing to health impacts of PM2.5, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) is integrated with measurements to simulate major species such as PAHs and metals, as well as oxidative potential of PM2.5 to link health risks to specific emission sectors and source regions. Finally, we aim to develop integrated health risk early-warning systems that jointly consider air pollution and extreme weather, such as ozone pollution and heatwaves, building on the already established heatwave health risk warning system in China. This approach will enable proactive mitigation of combined exposure risks and provide a foundation for future public health interventions.
How to cite: Zheng, M., Zhang, T., Xiang, Y., Liu, Y., Li, J., Tian, Y., Wang, Q., Du, Y., Wang, Q., Li, T., and Zhu, T.: The Health Impacts of Combined Exposure to Air Pollution and Extreme Weather in China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15947, 2026.
Southeast Asia faces escalating air quality challenges driven by rapid development, climate change, and transboundary pollution, with significant implications for human health. This talk will summarize the recent regional modelling studies in NTU Centre for Climate Change for Environmental Health (CCEH) that quantifies present-day and future health impacts of surface ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Southeast Asia under different emission and climate pathways. Using state-of-the-art chemical transport and climate–air quality models, we assess pollutant formation regimes, source contributions, and premature mortality under current conditions and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
We find that urban O3 in major Southeast Asian cities is sensitive to both nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), requiring synergistic precursor controls, while suburban, rural, and maritime regions remain predominantly NOₓ-limited. Under sustainable emission pathways, O₃-attributable premature mortality is projected to decline substantially by mid-century, whereas high-emission scenarios lead to marked increases. For PM2.5, Southeast Asia is largely ammonia-rich, limiting the effectiveness of NH₃ controls, while reductions in VOCs and sulfur dioxide are more effective in lowering secondary PM2.5. Although climate change is projected to slightly reduce regional PM2.5 concentration, PM2.5-attributable premature mortality is expected to increase due to demographic changes, resulting in substantial economic losses. We further show that haze pollution is shaped by both local emissions and transboundary transport, strongly modulated by climate variability such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Overall, integrated air quality and climate policies are essential to mitigate future health burdens in Southeast Asia.
How to cite: Yim, S. H. L., Fang, T., Hu, J., Li, J., and Gu, Y.: Air Pollution and Health Impacts in Southeast Asia under Present and Future Climate, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-23194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-23194, 2026.
Large-scale atmospheric chemistry-climate models such as the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC) are capable of accurately describing the composition and distribution of air pollutants on a global scale. On the other hand, small-scale multiphase models are developed to investigate health-related effects of air pollutants. The kinetic multi-layer model for surface and bulk chemistry in the epithelial lining fluid (KM-SUB-ELF) simulates chemical reactions and mass transport in the human lung, allowing for accurate estimations of the production and persistence of reactive oxygen species (ROS), hydroxyl radicals (OH) and damage to biomolecules. In recent publications, KM-SUB-ELF has been extended to consider endogenous production and transport of ROS through membranes in the lung, opening the avenue of mechanistically investigating the effects of air pollution on various diseases that have been linked to particulate matter exposure in epidemiological studies.
In this work, we present a multi-scale modelling approach to link large-scale atmospheric chemistry-climate models with small-scale multiphase kinetic models to derive a global health map. We use the chemistry-climate model EMAC to derive air pollutant distributions with various time resolutions. As studies suggested that metals capable of redox cycling (especially iron and copper) play a dominant role in the exogenous production of ROS and thus particulate matter toxicity, we focus on an accurate distribution of compounds containing iron.
In this work, we bring together the latest scientific developments in both global climate and multiphase chemical kinetics modelling, enabling a state-of-the-art evaluation of the global health burden of air pollution. Our multi-scale modelling approach yields air pollutant health effect simulations with accurate resolution in both space and time, contributing to the unravelling of the complex association of air pollutant emission profiles with epidemiological observations. The non-linearity of KM-SUB-ELF permits an evaluation of averaging effects over space and time, a common practice in the association of air pollutant profiles with epidemiological observations.
How to cite: Krüger, M., Klingmüller, K., Rosanka, S., Lelieveld, J., Pöschl, U., Pozzer, A., and Berkemeier, T.: Global Health Map: Coupling EMAC and KM-SUB-ELF to estimate air pollution health effects using accurate iron soluble fractions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21724, 2026.
Background: Isolating the independent health effects of atmospheric constituents remains a challenge due to their complex physicochemical coupling. Traditional single-pollutant models frequently neglect these correlations, leading to systematic Omitted Variable Bias (OVB) and distorted disease burden estimates.
Methods: I introduces a novel "post-hoc adjustment meta-regression" framework to quantify and correct OVB. By integrating extensive epidemiological data with high-resolution global atmospheric reanalysis products, the approach utilizes location-specific pollutant correlations to retrieve unbiased causal estimates.
Results: Applying this framework across varying temporal scales and chemical components revealed that single-pollutant models consistently overestimate health risks. Specifically, correcting for OVB in short-term PM2.5 and ozone co-exposures reduced the estimated global mortality burden by approximately 16%. In long-term assessments, unadjusted models were found to inflate ozone risk estimates due to confounding by PM2.5. Furthermore, for specific chemical constituents, neglecting non-Black Carbon (BC) components exaggerated BC's mortality risk by a median of 147%, obscuring its true, albeit higher, intrinsic toxicity relative to other particulate matter. Some of the case studies have been published after peer review.
Conclusions: OVB introduces significant, pervasive errors in current epidemiological syntheses. This unified multi-pollutant correction framework provides a robust solution for refining health impact assessments, underscoring the necessity of accounting for co-pollutant confounding in future air quality policy-making.
How to cite: Xue, T.: Mitigating Omitted Variable Bias in Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment: A Unified Multi-Pollutant Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12142, 2026.
Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollutant that poses significant risks to human health and ecosystems. As the European Union aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, it is critical to understand how emission reductions will influence near-surface ozone concentrations. Unlike primary air pollutants, ozone is formed through complex, non-linear photochemistry involving nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and meteorological conditions, making predictions of its response to emission reductions highly challenging.
In this study, we assess the impact of a transition to net-zero GHG emissions on near-surface ozone across Europe by comparing a reference year (2019) with a net-zero emission scenario for 2050. Our analysis is based on simulations with the atmospheric chemistry and transport model ICON-ART, which was specifically configured and further developed for air quality applications. The model incorporates the latest MOZART tropospheric chemistry scheme, enabling an accurate representation of key oxidation processes involving ozone, nitrogen oxides, and VOCs. ICON-ART further includes advanced modules for aerosol dynamics, gas-aerosol interactions, and emissions from biogenic and natural sources. Anthropogenic emissions are integrated via the ICON-ART online emission module. Together, the model components provide a physically consistent representation of regional scale atmospheric composition. However, the model's spatial resolution limits its direct applicability for exposure and health impact assessments.
To address this limitation, we apply a machine learning-based downscaling approach using the ensemble algorithm XGBoost to generate hourly near-surface ozone fields at 1 km spatial resolution. The model is trained on ground-based ozone observations and a comprehensive set of predictors, including ICON-ART chemical fields, meteorological variables, land use data, emission proxies, and topographic information. This hybrid framework combines process-based atmospheric modeling with a data-driven approach to capture fine-scale spatial and temporal variability in surface ozone. Moreover, the downscaling reduces model biases by leveraging observations to correct systematic errors in the ICON-ART outputs, improving accuracy and local representativeness.
Using the downscaled ozone projections, we examine changes in distributions, extreme events, and temporal dynamics between present-day and net-zero conditions. Our results provide new insights into how climate mitigation pathways may reshape ozone exposure across Europe and underscore the importance of high-resolution ozone projections for assessing the air quality implications of a transition to a net-zero society.
How to cite: Keller, C., Emmenegger, L., and Brunner, D.: Future Ozone Exposure in Europe under Net-Zero Emission Scenario using Downscaled ICON-ART Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13072, 2026.
Renewable energy shortages usually refer to prolonged periods of low wind speeds and reduced solar irradiance, which pose a significant threat to the stability of electricity supply. In future energy systems, fossil‑fuel power plants are typically relied upon to compensate for such energy deficits. By integrating an electricity system model with a chemical transport model, this study quantifies the impacts of renewable energy shortages on air quality in China during the 2050s. Our results show that under high‑renewable‑penetration scenarios, renewable energy shortages can increase PM2.5 concentrations by up to 30% and O3 levels by up to 20%. Incorporating these health‑related externalities into renewable capacity planning could significantly reduce electricity generation from fossil‑fuel plants, compared to scenarios that neglect these air‑quality impacts. These findings highlight the critical importance of integrating health‑cost considerations into energy system design.
How to cite: Shen, L.: Impacts of renewable energy shortages on air quality, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20677, 2026.
Intermediate-volatility and semi-volatile organic compounds (I/SVOCs) constitute an important fraction of organic pollutants in urban atmospheres. They can partition between the gas and particle phases and are key precursors of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). As representative nonpolar I/SVOCs (NP-I/SVOCs), n-alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) provide valuable molecular fingerprints for investigating the atmospheric behaviour and sources of I/SVOCs. Here, we conducted a multi-year data analysis (2014-2015, 2019, 2022 and 2024) to characterise long-term pollutant trends and improve source attribution by accounting for gas-particle partitioning. Seasonal data of n-alkanes (C8-C40) and PAHs were analysed in a central Chinese city, where the measurements of gaseous NP-I/SVOCs remain scarce. Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) model was employed to apportion source contributions. The results revealed a 58% reduction in PM2.5 and a 50% reduction in PM2.5 bounded n-alkanes in 2022 compared to 2014-2015, reflecting the positive impact of past pollution control measures. Gas-particle partitioning of NP-I/SVOCs was largely governed by absorption into organic matter; however, partitioning models showed limitations in reproducing observed partitioning behaviour. PMF results indicated that motor vehicle emissions overtook coal combustion as the primary anthropogenic contributor to PM2.5 bounded n-alkanes in recent years, and remained a major source of intermediate-volatility/semi-volatile n-alkanes and PAHs in 2024. Notably, particle-only and dual-phase (gas + particle) PMF analyses yielded significantly different source contributions and PAH health risk metrics, underscoring the importance of gas-particle partitioning in both source attribution and risk assessment. Incorporating gas-phase data enables a more comprehensive assessment of the NP-I/SVOC sources, particularly for sources enriched in low-molecular-weight homologues. These findings deepen the understanding of long-term NP-I/SVOC profiles and support more targeted air pollution control strategies.
How to cite: Xu, R., Kong, M., Wei, X., Guo, J., and Zhang, R.: Multi-year trends and source shifts of representative nonpolar I/SVOCs: Insights from gas-particle partitioning in a central Chinese city, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2621, 2026.
Fine fractions of urban road dust represent an environmentally relevant and potentially hazardous component of particulate matter due to their high mobility, efficient atmospheric resuspension, and capacity to accumulate anthropogenic pollutants. This study provides an integrated mineralogical, physicochemical, magnetic, and organic components characterization of the finest fraction (<50 μm) of road dust collected from seven urban locations (V1-V7) in Vienna, Austria, with particular emphasis on sources of minerals and organic components of road dust.
Magnetic properties were assessed using mass-specific magnetic susceptibility (χ), frequency-dependent susceptibility (χfd%), anhysteretic remanent magnetization susceptibility (χARM), hysteresis loop parameters, and thermomagnetic κ(T) curves. Complementary mineralogical and physicochemical analysis included Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), quantitative X-ray Diffraction (QXRD), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Thermogravimetry coupled with Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry (TG-QMS), and elemental CHNS and TOC analyses, supported by multivariate statistics adapted for compositional data.
All samples showed a complete dominance (≈100%) of strongly magnetic material in the <50 μm fraction. Mass-specific magnetic susceptibility values ranged from 362 × 10⁻⁸ m³ kg⁻¹ (V4) to 911 × 10⁻⁸ m³ kg⁻¹ (V6), indicating substantial enrichment in ferrimagnetic particles. Frequency-dependent susceptibility values ranged from 4.1% to 6.5%, confirming a significant contribution of ultrafine superparamagnetic grains. Hysteresis loop parameters (Mrs/Ms = 0.057-0.089; Hcr/Hc = 4.44-6.18) and King plot relationships indicate a dominance of stable single-domain magnetite with a minor superparamagnetic fraction, characteristic of anthropogenic sources such as brake abrasion, fuel combustion, and industrial emissions. Thermomagnetic κ(T) curves revealed Curie temperatures consistent with magnetite and evidence of magnetic enhancement during heating, suggesting the formation of secondary magnetite from combustion-related precursors.
QXRD analysis showed a mineralogical composition dominated by carbonates and silicates, including quartz (24–46 wt%), dolomite (12-36 wt%), calcite (~10-15 wt%), feldspars (6-12 wt%), and muscovite (5-15 wt%), accounting for ~90 wt% of the samples. Minor phases included chlorite, kaolinite, amphiboles, and biotite (7-10 wt%), while iron oxides occurred below the quantitative detection limit of QXRD but were confirmed by XRD, FTIR, and SEM observations.
FTIR and TG-QMS analyses revealed abundant aliphatic C-H functional groups and hydrocarbon fragments indicative of organic matter derived from tire wear, asphalt binders, lubricants, fuel residues, and polymeric materials. TG-derived organic matter contents ranged from 3.0 to 8.6 wt%, closely matching TOC values (2.9-8.6 wt%). SEM-EDS provided direct evidence of microplastic particles, including carbon- and oxygen-rich fibers, irregular polymeric fragments, and significant amount of slag glasses (balls, rods).
The combined magnetic–chemical approach demonstrates that ultrafine road dust acts as an efficient carrier of strongly magnetic particles, C-H-rich organic pollutants, and microplastics. These findings highlight the environmental and health relevance of fine road dust as a vector for inhalable anthropogenic contaminants and emphasize the value of integrating magnetic indicators with mineralogical and organic analyses in urban pollution assessments.
This research was funded in whole by the National Science Centre, Poland under grant number 2021/43/D/ST10/00996.
How to cite: Lempart-Drozd, M. and Dytłow, S. K.: An Integrated Methodological Framework for the Characterization of Fine Urban Road Dust (<50 μm): Magnetic, Mineralogical, and Organic Components, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4442, 2026.
Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites offer unique capabilities for capturing diurnal variations and providing valuable insights into aerosol cycles. However, publicly available hourly aerosol products with sufficient accuracy remain scarce across Europe, Africa, and West Asia, primarily due to the lack of shorter-wavelength (< 0.6 µm) channels on the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite series. Therefore, we developed a novel deep learning framework to retrieve hourly aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm over land in 2021 from MSG-1/SEVIRI imagery, which offers wider spatial coverage through Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC). This framework integrates an advanced time-sequence Transformer architecture with transfer learning, utilizing pre-training and fine-tuning techniques. The eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) analysis revealed that satellite observations across multiple wavelengths contribute 38% to the AOD retrieval, followed by viewing geometry (34%). In comparison with ground-based AOD measurements, our model achieves high accuracy, with an average ten-fold cross-validation (CV) R2 of 0.88 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.079. Additionally, our model maintains strong predictive performance in areas and periods lacking ground-based measurements, as evidenced by strong spatial- and temporal-based CV-R2 values ranging from 0.71 to 0.86. The model performance is significantly improved when withholding each continent, showing marked increases in R (0.71–0.78) compared to models trained without transfer learning (0.23–0.47). Using the generated reliable 3-km-resolution AOD datasets, we capture pronounced diurnal aerosol variations, characterized by a gradual increase after sunrise, a peak around 10:00 UTC, and a decline by late afternoon, with average magnitude changes of approximately 26% ± 15% relative to the daily mean level (0.22 ± 0.14) on an annual scale, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer, reaching 30% ± 19%. More importantly, we successfully tracked the rapid dispersion of aerosols and their transport process throughout the day during highly polluted events, driven by both natural and anthropogenic emissions, including dust storms, wildfires, and urban haze. These findings emphasize the unique value of our study for advancing aerosol research over under-monitored regions, particularly focusing on diurnal variations during extreme events.
How to cite: Fan, Y., Li, Z., Sun, L., Dubovik, O., and Wei, J.: Enhancing Hourly AOD Retrieval from MSG-1/SEVIRI Imagery Integrating Deep and Transfer Learning, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3824, 2026.
Exposure to pollutants is closely linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Accurate full-field prediction of air pollutant concentrations is essential for assessing exposure to pollution and guide sustainable urban planning. However, the intrinsic interaction among pollutants, hard-to-predict weather patterns, along with limited and randomly placed monitoring stations make this a complex task. While the domain has shifted from traditional interpolation methods towards machine learning algorithms, generation of high-resolution maps remain challenging. In this study, we use hourly available sparse data and apply data-driven techniques to provide faster and accurate reconstruction of four key pollutants - NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10. Models are trained on full-field simulation data and evaluated on real-world observations collected from 20-25 monitoring stations in the city of Paris. We propose multi-pollutant modelling using both discriminative and ensemble-based generative approaches, investigate the impact of incorporating historical data into discriminative models, and introduce stochastic modelling via diffusion techniques to capture the variability in spatial distribution. Despite observing anomalies in spatial map and recording noisy observations, the proposed ML models achieve high structural similarity (SSIM) in field reconstruction. By utilizing noise-based augmentation strategy, we facilitate prediction of real-world data without model retraining. The models exhibit superior generalization ability on real-data by predicting realistic pollution patterns on time periods that lie outside the training period. These findings highlight the potential of ML-models for reliable real-world deployment in reconstruction tasks.
How to cite: Sabnis, A. A., Mitrea, M., Lugon, L., Sartelet, K., Bocquet, M., and Cheng, S.: Predicting Air Pollution from sparse and movable observation points using machine learning techniques, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5146, 2026.
Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) are widely used to simulate aerosol mass concentrations, composition, and optical properties at regional to global scales and are fundamental tools for assessing aerosol impacts on climate and air quality. Despite continued advances in CTMs, their performance remains strongly dependent on the accuracy of meteorological inputs, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories. Differences among biomass burning emission inventories can arise from several factors, such as fire detection methods, fuel consumption estimates from fire radiative power (top-down) or burn area (bottom-up) approaches, assumptions regarding fuel type, combustion completeness, emission factors, and temporal allocation assumptions. Systematic evaluation of biomass burning emission datasets against ground-based observations is therefore essential for identifying region-specific aerosol representation in CTMs. In this study, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to quantify the sensitivity of simulated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) to biomass burning emission inventories during the 2019 wildfire season over North America. We perform simulations driven by two recently developed biomass burning emission products from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC): the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) and the Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS). We compare these against simulations driven by three commonly used global inventories (the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4), the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), and the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2 (QFED2)). Model output is evaluated against quality-assured Level 2 AOD observations from 138 NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations across Canada and the United States. The evaluation reveals substantial regional variability in model performance across emission inventories. Over Canada, simulations driven by CFFEPS and GFFEPS exhibit the strongest agreement with observations, particularly in northern and western regions, where correlations reach values of up to ~0.88 and normalized mean errors are as low as ~30%–49%, while simulations using other global inventories generally show larger normalized errors. Across the United States, GFAS-driven simulations achieve correlations of approximately 0.6–0.7 in the western and eastern regions, while all inventories exhibit reduced skill over the central United States. Overall, these results demonstrate the strong sensitivity of simulated AOD to biomass burning emission datasets and emphasize the importance of regionally optimized fire emissions for accurately representing aerosols in chemical transport models.
How to cite: Ashraf, S., Hayes, P., Payette, T., Stevens, R., and Chen, J.: Sensitivity of Simulated Aerosol Optical Depth to Biomass Burning Emission Inventories over North America, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8664, 2026.
Accelerating the energy transition toward a new electricity system dominated by renewable energy, with coal power serving as a flexible backup, is a critical strategy to synergize pollution control and carbon reduction. This study couples a power system model with WRF-CMAQ to reveal the power system's response to renewable energy droughts and assess associated environmental impacts. Our findings reveal that while large-scale development of renewable energy will contribute to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions and overall air quality improvement across China, it also introduces regional increasing pollution. The annual average PM2.5 concentrations exhibit significant increases in the Border Area of Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, and the Twain-Hu Basin, accompanied by a rise in the frequency of mildly polluted days in the Twain-Hu Basin and the Sichuan Basin. Moreover, the Twain-Hu Basin experiences a nearly tenfold surge in short-term severe air pollution episodes compared to the baseline scenario. These regional pollution spikes are linked to renewable energy droughts triggered by extreme low-wind, extreme low-radiation, and compound low-wind-low-solar events. Our research underscores that while advancing the integration of wind and solar, it is essential to conduct regional environmental risk assessments across multiple time scales and enhance extreme weather early warning and emergency response mechanisms.
How to cite: Xin, X. and Tong, D.: Renewable energy droughts shape the air pollution patterns through power system response, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6336, 2026.
Influenza epidemics have increasingly threatened human lives and socioeconomic development in recent decades. It is widely acknowledged that weather and climate play a vital role in influenza epidemics, however, which specific meteorological factors and to which extent the changes of the factors are responsible for the influenza intensity remains unclear. Previous studies suggest a decreasing trend of influenza intensity with the rise of winter temperature, which is contradictory to the observed enhanced influenza intensity under global warming. This study focuses on the potential contributions of high-frequency climate variability to the changes of influenza intensity in the United States. The results show that, the peak strength of the influenza season increased by 50% from 1997 to 2021 and two-thirds of this increase is associated with the amplified October–November temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN), a measure of high-frequency temperature variability. This association is most evident in the central region of the United States. Based on the ensemble of CMIP6 simulations, an evident increase of TCN by 0.16°C/decade (p < 0.01) is pronounced along with the enhanced warming driven by the reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient caused by uneven changes in anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions favored immune-related TCN, leading to the intensification of influenza epidemics eventually. Our findings address the need for more thoughtful mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the adverse health effects of human-induced climate drivers.
How to cite: Yasen, G., Guo, W., and liu, Q.: Rapid increase in U.S. influenza epidemics driven by human-induced rapid temperature variations during the autumn transition period, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8856, 2026.
Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation at Earth’s surface poses a well documented risk for human health [1]. The World Health Organization has defined the UV-
Index to quantify the amount of UV radiation as integer numbers in a range of typically 1 to 10 [2].
The UV-Index is typically forecasted on the scale of days to warn the public in the case of high UV-Index values. In Germany this is done by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) who use their weather model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model) [3] in combination with external datasets for Ozone forecasts and UV radiation calculations [4].
In order to make the UV-Index forecast more self-consistent, we present a setup that provides atmospheric ozone via the LINearized OZone (LINOZ) scheme [5] that is used for UV radiation calculations via the Cloud-J scheme [6] from within ICON and the coupled Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ART) module [7].
The result is a setup that can forecast ozone and UV-Index fields for a time frame of January to April 2025 with a precision of ±1 for 94.9% of the data points in comparison to ground measurement stations. Ozone columns stay within 5% agreement for a time frame of four months in the northern hemisphere in comparison to Ozonewatch satellite data.
We use this setup for an analysis of the influencing factors on UV radiation that finds that the solar zenith angle is the quantity that introduces most variability on the UV-Index. Aerosol optical depth, cloud cover and overhead ozone introduce smaller variabilites while the effect of surface albedo and altitude is even less pronounced. A comparison of the novel setup to the operational forecast by DWD agrees within ±2 units of UV-Index for almost all data points with the exception of larger differences in mountainous areas.
References:
[1] Mohammed Ahmed Sadeq et al. Causes of death among patients with cutaneous melanoma: a US population-based study. Scientific Reports 2023 13:1, 13(1):1–11, 6 2023.
[2] Report of the WMO-WHO Meeting of Experts on Standardization of UV Indices and their Dissemination to the Public. Technical report, 1997.
[3] Günther Zängl et al. The ICON(ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M : Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(687):563–579, 1 2015.
[4] Henning Staiger et al. UV index forecasting on a global scale. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 14(2):259–270, 4 2005.
[5] C. A. McLinden et al. Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models: A simple chemistry and the cross-tropopause flux. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 105(D11):14653–14665, 6 2000.
[6] M. J. Prather. Photolysis rates in correlated overlapping cloud fields: Cloud-J 7.3c. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(8):2587–2595, 8 2015.
[7] Jennifer Schröter et al. ICON-ART 2.1: A flexible tracer framework and its application for composition studies in numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(10):4043–4068, 10 2018.
How to cite: Hanft, V., Ruhnke, R., Seifert, A., and Braesicke, P.: Forecasting the UV-Index and Analyzing its Dependence on Influencing Factors, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11413, 2026.
Oxidative potential (OP) is a critical metric for assessing the health effects of particulate matter (PM) pollution. Among the various OP assays, the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay is the most widely used and several online systems have been developed. However, existing online systems either lack sufficient reliability for field deployment or offer relatively low temporal resolution, typically around 1 hour. This study presents an automated online DTT measurement system designed for minute-scale monitoring of PM2.5 OP with enhanced sensitivity. The system consists of three main components: a Particle-Into-Liquid Sampler (PILS) for PM2.5 collection, a dual-path incubation module with precisely controlled reaction temperatures (37°C) and durations (~5 and ~10 minutes), and an absorbance-based detector utilizing a liquid waveguide capillary cell (LWCC). This dual-path design enables DTT consumption measurement at two time points within a 15-minute cycle. Assay optimization was conducted to improve the sensitivity of the system. System calibration demonstrated strong correlation (R2 > 0.99) and repeatability for DTT detection (0-10 μM) with rapid response. Validation using standards 9,10-phenanthraquinone and Cu2+ solutions showed excellent correlations between species concentrations and DTT consumption (R2 > 0.99), with strong agreement between online and offline methods. Field deployment further confirmed the system's capability for real-time monitoring and long-term atmospheric OP observation
How to cite: Liu, J. and Fang, T.: Development of an Automated Online System for Minute-Resolution Measurement of PM2.5 Oxidative Potential Using the DTT Assay, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10311, 2026.
CO₂ sequestration technologies (CSTs) allow for increased CO₂ emissions without exceeding a chosen temperature limit by creating additional carbon budgets. While these technologies offer low-cost routes to net-zero emissions (i.e., CST benefits), they impede progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (i.e., CST disbenefits). Focusing on China, we assess both the disbenefits and benefits of CSTs across the climate-energy-air-health cascade using an integrated modeling framework. We show that CSTs can save 4.98–15.65 trillion CNY in achieving net-zero emissions but compromise sustainability in non-fossil energy penetration, air quality, and public health improvement, resulting in a total loss of up to 7.82 trillion CNY during 2020–2060. Given the high likelihood of large-scale CST deployment in the future, pursuing policy coherence to balance trade-offs between disbenefits and benefits is vital. To that end, CSTs should be prioritized in the power sector, and stringent end-of-pipe equipment should be retrofitted in non-power sectors before CST allocation.
How to cite: Wang, F.: Assessment of Climate-Energy-Air-Health Co-benefits and Trade-offs of CO₂ Sequestration Technologies in China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-13970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13970, 2026.
Air pollution is one of the primary environmental concerns in public health, resulting in millions of premature deaths annually. Particulate matter (PM) is an important indicator of atmospheric pollution due to its ability to penetrate the lungs and cardiovascular system. However, the spatial and temporal coverage of air quality measurements remains a considerable challenge. In Colombia, there are 23 Air Quality Monitoring Systems, of which only 48% have adequate temporal representativeness. Currently, 209 monitoring sites have been installed, distributed in 63% of the departments and covering only 8% of the municipalities. However, only 39% of these sites are in operation, covering 43% of the departments and 4% of the municipalities. This limitation highlights the need to explore alternative and complementary estimates to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of air quality in the country. In this context, analyzing satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is essential to understanding the dynamics of atmospheric pollution and assessing its impact on climate and public health. This study analyzes changes in aerosol levels in Colombia using AOD, with the aim of identifying spatial and temporal patterns in the Caribbean, Andean, Pacific, Orinoquía, and Amazon subregions. The MAIAC collection 6.1 algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to analyze annual AOD data over a 20-year period, from 2005 to 2024. The results indicate that the Orinoquía and Amazon regions showed the greatest increases in aerosol levels, possibly associated with activities such as deforestation and biomass burning. A notable finding was the link between the highest aerosol levels and dry periods associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which promotes forest fires and the resuspension of soil particles. In contrast, the lowest aerosol levels were recorded during La Niña periods, characterized by wetter and cooler conditions. In 2020, despite the reduction in anthropogenic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, high aerosol levels were observed in the coastal and continental areas of Colombia. These elevated levels can be attributed to a high incidence of forest fires and the entry of intercontinental air masses loaded with Saharan dust. The study highlights the complexity of pollution sources and the need to consider both anthropogenic and natural factors. The approach used allowed for a detailed analysis of the distribution and changes in aerosol levels across different subregions of the country.
How to cite: Carmona-García, J. M., Rojano Alvarado, R., and Vanoye-García, A. Y.: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Aerosol Levels in Colombia Using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16081, 2026.
Air pollution, particularly fine particulate matter (PM2.5), presents a significant environmental health risk in Central Asia, where scientific understanding and monitoring systems remain limited. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of PM2.5 concentrations and their associated health impacts in the capital cities of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – Astana, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Ashgabat, and Tashkent – during the period 2010-2019. A fused dataset combining satellite-derived estimates with CAMS reanalysis outputs was developed to produce daily, spatially refined PM2.5 concentrations for the region.
All five cities exceeded the WHO annual guideline of 5 µg/m³, with Ashgabat and Tashkent recording the highest annual averages, surpassing 25 µg/m³. Using the AirQ+ model, a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) was performed for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer (LC) in adults aged 25 and older. Attributable COPD mortality under the background pollution scenario (2.4 µg/m³) reached up to 34 cases per 100,000 in Bishkek, with attributable proportions ranging from 9% to 21% across cities. LC burdens, although lower in absolute numbers, showed attributable fractions between 9% and 20% in Ashgabat and Tashkent, corresponding to 2 - 3 deaths per 100,000 – values comparable to estimates from studies in similarly polluted urban areas.
Scenario analysis revealed that reducing PM2.5 to the WHO guideline of 5 µg/m³ would cut COPD and LC mortality by up to 80% in the most polluted cities. Notably, even moderate reductions, such as reaching the WHO Interim Target-3 of 15 µg/m³, already yielded substantial health benefits. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted air quality interventions and stricter regulatory standards across Central Asia.
How to cite: Vega Garcia, L., Caseiro, A., Schmitz, S., Lawrence, M., and von Schneidemesser, E.: A Comparative Analysis of Air Quality (PM2.5) and Its Health Impact in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17411, 2026.
The generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), particularly superoxide radical anion (·O2-), is a primary driver of particulate matter (PM) toxicity. However, traditional toxicological assessments are often limited by static endpoint measurements and high experimental doses, failing to capture the dynamic reaction kinetics relevant to real-world ambient exposure. To bridge this gap, we developed a high-temporal-resolution machine learning model based on XGBoost, trained on a comprehensive dataset comprising over 60,000 kinetic data points of ·O2- generation. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance (R2 > 0.8) on the testing set, proving its capability to capture complex, non-linear kinetic patterns. Specifically, the model successfully reproduced the non-monotonic inverted V-shaped dose-response of Isoprene SOA and 9,10-Phenanthrenequinone (PQN) and accurately captured the antagonistic effects in PQN-Fe2+ mixtures, distinguishing these complex interactions from simple additive effects. Ongoing work focuses on applying this validated model to extrapolate cell-based kinetic data to environmentally relevant scenarios in human respiratory tract. We will first calculate the pollutant burden across different respiratory regions (e.g., trachea, bronchi, alveoli) by integrating ambient PM concentration data with a lung deposition model. We will then simulate region-specific ·O2- generation profiles by incorporating varying cell densities and analyzing kinetic parameters. Ultimately, this study aims to develop a model that translates ambient data into physiologically relevant oxidative profiles, providing a precise and cost-effective strategy for screening region-specific respiratory health risks.
How to cite: Miao, Y., Shen, Y., and Fang, T.: A Kinetic Machine Learning Model to Simulate PM-Induced Cellular ROS Generation Across the Human Respiratory Tract, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15556, 2026.
Rural environments play a critical role in shaping regional air quality and atmospheric chemistry due to their distinct emission sources, seasonal activities, and meteorological conditions. This study investigates the seasonal variability of PM2.5 mass concentrations and their associated major and trace elements in a rural region of Uttar Pradesh, India, based on day- and nighttime sampling conducted from July 2023 to May 2024. A total of 135 samples were collected and analysed for elemental composition. In total, 31 elements (Li, B, Na, Mg, Al, P, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sn, Sb, Ba, Pb, Bi) were quantified using ICP–MS.
Seasonal analysis revealed that nighttime PM2.5 levels were consistently higher than daytime concentrations (1.3–1.5 times higher), with the highest mass loadings observed during the post-monsoon season, followed by the winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons. In contrast, elemental concentrations peaked in winter despite lower PM2.5 mass relative to the post-monsoon period, indicating stronger influences from combustion and industrial emissions along with reduced atmospheric dispersion. Enrichment factor (EF) analysis revealed a strong enrichment of anthropogenic elements (K, Cu, Zn, Pb, Sb, Bi), while crustal elements (Ca, Al, Fe, Mg, Ti) exhibited low EF values, confirming a significant contribution from soil and resuspended dust. FTIR analysis further revealed seasonal shifts in functional groups, with higher contributions of organic and carbonyl species in winter and post-monsoon periods.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified major source categories—including biomass burning, industrial emissions, and traffic-related sources in agreement with EF-derived source signatures. HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis further demonstrated the influence of regional long-range transport on seasonal aerosol composition. SEM–EDX morphological analysis also revealed clear seasonal differences in particle size and structure, with substantially higher particle loading during the winter and post-monsoon seasons.
Health risk assessment indicated substantially elevated risks during winter, with carcinogenic risk increasing by ~1.8-fold relative to post-monsoon and ~2.3-fold relative to monsoon, and non-carcinogenic hazards rising by 0.5–7.6-fold across seasons. Elements such as Pb, Cr, V, and Mn were the dominant contributors to both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks.
Overall, the findings highlight the significant influence of seasonal emission patterns, combustion activities, and atmospheric dynamics on shaping the composition of rural aerosols and their associated health impacts.
Keywords: Particulate matter; Elements Analysis: Principal component analysis; Enrichment factor; Health risk assessment.
How to cite: Sharma, R., Puttaswamy, H., and Tyagi, S.: Influence of Seasonal Emissions, Regional Transport, and Particle Morphology on PM2.5-Bound Elements in Rural Northern India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21118, 2026.
Background: In LMICs, population-level evidence on the acute health effects of air pollution is limited by sparse data and underdeveloped surveillance systems. South Africa’s Air Quality Management Priority Areas (Highveld, Vaal Triangle, and Waterberg-Bojanala), identified for chronic air quality exceedances, provide an opportunity to examine exposure.
Objectives: We assessed the short-term effects of five major air pollutants (NO₂, SO₂, O₃, PM₁₀, PM₂.₅) on cause-specific mortality and morbidity between 2005 and 2020. We adapted a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) embedded in a three-stage DL-CCO framework for mortality, and a pseudo-case-crossover design for morbidity validation.
Methods: Weekly mortality and monthly morbidity data (ICD-10 J(All), A(15-19)) were linked to ambient air pollutant concentrations across the Priority Areas. The modelling strategy was: (1) DLNM estimation of district-level risk functions, (2) pooling via random-effects meta-analysis, and (3) application of a distributed lag case-crossover (DL-CCO) approach using conditional logistic regression to validate findings. For morbidity, where matched control data were unavailable, a pseudo-case-crossover approach was applied as a sensitivity test.
Results: Increases of 10 µg/m³ in PM2.5 and NO₂ were associated with elevated respiratory and infectious mortality risks within a 3-week lag structure. Pooled estimates showed a significant cumulative relative risk (RR) of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.09–1.26) for pneumonia following NO₂ exposure in HPA, and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.10–1.34) for tuberculosis mortality associated with PM2.5 in VTAPA. DL-CCO validation confirmed consistent lag–response patterns for mortality, while pseudo-CCO analyses for morbidity showed parallel but attenuated associations. No significant associations were found for SO₂ or O₃.
Conclusions: This study is the first to implement a DLNM framework for mortality and pseudo-CCO sensitivity test for morbidity in Southern Africa. The multi-pollutant, multi-region analysis confirms the acute health burden of NO₂ and PM2.5 and demonstrates the feasibility of applying advanced epidemiologic models in resource-constrained settings.
How to cite: Howlett-Downing, C., Kapwata, T., and Wright, C.: A Multi-site Mortality and Morbidity Assessment of Air Pollution in South Africa's Priority Areas: an Adapted Three-Stage Distributed Lag Non-linear Case-Crossover Framework for Parsimonious Datasets, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-340, 2026.
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure is a leading global health risk, requiring integrative frameworks that link atmospheric science, epidemiology, and socioeconomic analysis to enable effective mitigation. Despite this global attention, Central Asia faces a knowledge gap regarding the dominant sources of PM2.5 pollution due to the scarcity of related research. This study applies advanced source apportionment, health impact modeling, and multi-criteria decision-making analysis to quantify the health and economic burdens and mitigation strategies resulting from persistent PM2.5 pollution in Kazakhstan’s two largest urban centers, Almaty and Astana.
The study employed Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), HYSPLIT trajectory, and Conditional Probability Function analysis to characterize PM2.5 sources [1]. An extensive year-long sampling campaign (August 2022–July 2023) confirmed that annual PM2.5 concentrations exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline (5 µg/m3) by 7.1 times in Almaty and 3.9 times in Astana. PMF identified five distinct sources in both cities, with coal and biomass combustion emerging as the overall predominant contributors to PM2.5. In Almaty, sources included the urban atmosphere (20%), power plants (18%), residential heating (16%), and exhaust emissions (14%), with the valley topography exacerbating pollutant accumulation. In Astana, contributions were distributed among heating, regional/local power plants, and traffic emissions (exhaust/non-exhaust), each contributed 20%, and industrial emissions (18%), with HYSPLIT analysis confirming the influence of regional industrial emissions originating from areas such as Karagandy and Pavlodar.
The subsequent health risk assessment, quantified using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), showed that PM2.5-attributable excess mortality was 2108±144 deaths annually in Almaty and 676±41 deaths in Astana (2022-2024) [2]. These fatality rates significantly exceeded those from road traffic accidents and HIV/AIDS in both cities. The corresponding economic losses, quantified using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach, were estimated at USD 2.8-4.6 billion per year for Almaty and USD 0.9-1.5 billion for Astana. Achieving the WHO limit could prevent 1642-2195 deaths and yield annual economic savings exceeding USD 3.8 billion.
The DEMATEL-ANP analysis, based on responses from 20 international experts, assessed the interaction among key mitigation measures [2]. It identified that effective air quality policies must prioritize pollution-purification efficiency, manage capital costs, and minimize the risks of secondary pollution, identified as the primary criteria driving systemic improvements. The findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive air quality management, particularly fossil fuel phase-out initiatives. High-capital interventions, such as the planned modernization of Almaty's CHPP-2 to gas in 2026, are critical, as the resulting economic savings from reduced health burdens (USD 1066-6300 million) significantly exceed the modernization cost (USD 703.6 million).
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Higher Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP23486720, 2024-2026).
References
[1] K. Tursun et al. Dominant sources of PM2.5 in Kazakhstan’s urban cities: A PMF and HYSPLIT-based study for air quality management in Central Asia, Urban Clim 64 (2025) 102706.
[2] A. Muratuly et al. Urban PM2.5 pollution in Kazakhstan: health burden and economic costs, Environ. Sci: Adv. (2025).
How to cite: Baimatova, N., Radelyuk, I., Ibragimova, O. P., and Tursun, K.: The Health and Economic Cost of PM2.5 in Kazakhstan: Identifying Source-Driven Mitigation Priorities, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1958, 2026.
Satellite based remote sensing techniques have proved effective in estimating critical pollutants concentration especially in regions which lack spatial coverage due to limited ground-based monitoring stations. This study presents a comprehensive, data-driven framework for evaluating urban air quality and associated health risks across the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), a critically polluted region characterised by limited ground-based monitoring coverage. High-resolution satellite observations namely Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS-MAIAC and tropospheric ozone (O3) from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI were integrated with meteorological parameters to estimate surface-level concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and O3 for 16 major cities across the IGP during the period 2020–2024. A Random Forest (RF) modelling approach demonstrated strong predictive performance (R2 = 0.94 for PM2.5/PM10 and 0.84 for O3; RMSE = 8.03–14.02 µg m-3; Index of Agreement > 0.96). Estimates of the relative risk (RR) of mortality attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure indicated a substantial health burden in cities such as Delhi, Patna, and Kanpur, highlighting the pressing need for targeted mitigation and intervention strategies. The integrated satellite-machine learning framework effectively identifies pollution hotspots, enables robust exposure assessment, and addresses critical data gaps, thereby strengthening the scientific basis for informed decision-making. The findings provide actionable insights for the development of evidence-based, region-specific clean air action plans, contributing to enhanced urban liveability, improved environmental governance, and greater social equity. The novelty of this work lies in the combined use of satellite-derived AOD, TROPOMI-based O3 observations, meteorological variables, and machine learning techniques to simultaneously predict PM2.5, PM10, and O3 concentrations and assess associated health risks across the IGP. By advancing progress towards Sustainable Development Goals 3.9, 11.6, and 13, this research supports the transition towards healthier, more resilient, and sustainable urban environments in South Asia.
Keywords: Aerosols, Satellite Observations, Predictive Modelling Framework, Relative Risk
How to cite: Sengar, V., Sharma, M., and Jain, S.: Satellite-AOD and Machine Learning for Urban Air Quality and HealthRisk Assessment in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17250, 2026.
The rising frequency and severity of wildfires have intensified concerns regarding their adverse impacts on public health. However, accurately quantifying acute wildfire smoke exposure and its associated health impacts remains challenging due to limitations in existing high-resolution exposure data. Here, we develop a novel Cascade-Machine-Learning framework to generate unprecedented hourly wildfire-specific PM2.5 concentrations at a 1 km × 1 km resolution across California, achieving substantial accuracy improvements over traditional chemical transport models and satellite-derived datasets. Leveraging this high-resolution dataset with health records from the University of California, we identify critical relationships between short-term wildfire smoke exposure and acute pneumonia-related health risks. Notably, we introduce a new exposure metric, Pmax, capturing the intensity of hourly peak exposures relative to daily accumulated exposure, and reveal that short-lived, pulse-type wildfire smoke events are associated with nearly tenfold higher pneumonia-related medical risks compared to sustained exposure at equivalent daily average concentrations. Our results further highlight heightened vulnerability among individuals younger than 18 years and the African American populations. This work underscores the urgent need for temporally detailed exposure assessment in wildfire health studies and provides a robust scientific foundation for targeted public health interventions and emergency preparedness in an era of intensifying wildfire risks.
How to cite: Wang, L., Chen, X., and Jiao, A.: Cascade-Machine-learning quantifies hourly wildfire smoke exposure and acute health risks in California, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-947, 2026.
In recent years, air pollution control in China has advanced substantially. While these efforts have led to pronounced reductions in particulate matter concentrations, ozone (O₃) levels have increased significantly. Many previous studies have suggested that reductions in nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) may be a major driver of the observed increase in O₃, thereby highlighting the importance of controlling volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Using Beijing, a Chinese megacity, as a case study, this work analyzes long-term observational data from 2009 to 2024 to investigate the temporal evolution of O₃ and its precursors (NOₓ and VOCs) and their interrelated response characteristics.
The results show that during 2009–2015, both the maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (MDA8 O₃) concentration and total oxidant (Oₓ) increased rapidly, at rates of 8.9% yr⁻¹ and 5.4% yr⁻¹, respectively. After 2015, the growth rates slowed markedly and both metrics exhibited high-level fluctuations (O₃: 2.9% yr⁻¹; Oₓ: −0.9% yr⁻¹). Further stratification by pollution level and temperature reveals that, since 2015, the 90th percentile of O₃ and O₃ concentrations under high-temperature conditions (≥25 °C) have shown declining trends (90th percentile: −0.47% yr⁻¹; ≥25 °C: −0.76% yr⁻¹), with the decreases mainly occurring during midday high-ozone periods.
A combined analysis of the response relationships between O₃ and NOₓ, together with photochemical reactivity indicators, indicates that 2015 represents a turning point at which O₃ formation sensitivity in Beijing shifted from a VOC-limited regime toward a transitional, co-limited regime. Looking ahead, further reductions in NOₓ emissions from natural gas–fired power plants and mobile sources—particularly diesel vehicles and non-road mobile machinery—will be critical for effective O₃ pollution mitigation in Beijing. This study provides valuable insights and practical experience for photochemical air pollution control in megacities worldwide.
How to cite: kang, Y. and tang, G.: Sixteen Years of Ozone Changes: Photochemical Pollution Control Experience in Beijing, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3217, 2026.
The 2021 WHO Air Quality Guidelines impose substantial challenges for achieving further reductions in ambient fine particle matter (PM2.5). Although China has experienced major PM2.5 declines through controls on industry, transportation, power generation, and residential combustion, livestock-driven ammonia (NH3) remains weakly regulated and poorly constrained. Here we integrate CAMS-GLOB-ANT and MEIC inventories to construct a high-resolution livestock NH₃ emission dataset, and use WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations to quantify its contribution to PM2.5 across China from 2010 to 2020. PM2.5 concentrations attributable to livestock NH3 emissions [hereafter PM2.5(NH3)] exhibit marked seasonal and spatial heterogeneity, with persistent winter hotspots in southern China and summer hotspots shifting northward to the North China Plain while gradually weakening. Despite national PM2.5 improvements, regions with PM2.5(NH3) exceeding 5–10 μg m-3 remain widespread, and livestock emissions alone frequently elevate summer PM2.5 above WHO daily limits. As other sources decline, the relative role of PM2.5 (NH3) increases, underscoring the urgent need for integrated agricultural-air quality management.
How to cite: Ma, X. and the XUST: Livestock ammonia emerges as a dominant barrier to compliance with the WHO PM2.5 guidelines in China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6103, 2026.
Deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) can delay the reduction in fossil fuels and associated air pollutants, thereby reducing health co-benefits from climate action. The heterogeneity of these effects, however, remains unclear. By assessing the grid-level (36 km2) air pollution-related mortality in China’s pathway to net-zero CO2 emissions over 2020–2060, we show that CDR exacerbates health inequity by disproportionally reducing more health co-benefits in developing regions, while improving health equality by aligning mortality rates across all regions. In addition to the differences in CDR deployment, such disproportionate impact is largely attributed to CDR trading, by which developing regions can obtain additional CDR quotas, in turn, decreasing local health co-benefits and hampering national health equity. Nonetheless, CDR trading prevents an even greater exacerbation of health inequity, as CDR trading also transfers CDR quotas and associated health burdens from developing to developed regions. Our results support how health-considered policy can be incorporated into CDR deployment strategies to enhance health co-benefits and promote equitable health outcomes.
How to cite: Liu, Z.: Disproportionate effects of direct air carbon capture and storage on regional health co-benefits from net-zero emissions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11534, 2026.
The global premature mortality attributable to air pollution and heatwaves is substantial, yet determining which driver exerts a larger impact remains a complex task. Here, mortalities associated with heatwaves, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) are estimated from storylines of air pollution with constant anthropogenic emissions, comparing a factual scenario for 2018-2019 to two warmer scenarios at +2K and +2.75K above pre-industrial levels. The mortality evaluation reveals regional disparities: in Asia and Africa, air pollution far outweighs heatwaves. Conversely, in Europe, heatwave effects dominate. In warmer worlds, heatwaves control changes in aggregated mortality but are partially offset by improved air quality, especially in a +2.75K scenario. The shape of the air quality indices-population-exposure curve reveals the industrialization level, indicating the degree of population exposure risk. These findings highlight the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that address both air pollution and climate change exposures to effectively reduce the global mortality burden.
How to cite: Shen, F., Hegglin, M., Emmerichs, T., Taraborrelli, D., and Zhao, Q.: How the global health burden changes due to heatwaves and air pollution in a warmer world, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11717, 2026.
Ground-level ozone pollution poses significant public health risks globally, necessitating spatially-resolved governance strategies. Utilizing real-time monitoring data from China's National Environmental Monitoring Network (2017–2021), this study establishes localized exposure-response relationships for Shenzhen through meta-analytic synthesis and BenMAP-CE modeling, quantifying spatial-temporal health burdens. The results found that: (1) the ozone concentration in Shenzhen exhibited fluctuating patterns between seasons and years, indicating an overarching decline between 2017 and 2021 and a peak annual average was observed in 2019; (2) the disease- risk hierarchy was found that cardiovascular mortality with the highest susceptibility (RR=1.0092), followed by respiratory diseases (RR=1.0063), and all-cause non-accidental mortality (RR=1.0046); and (3) severe health burdens were mainly concentrated in western industrial zones in Shenzhen. The study provides insights into the spatial-temporal distribution of ozone pollution and its health impacts in Shenzhen, and the results confirm that ozone control must prioritize megacity emission hotspots and seasonal peaks. Future research should integrate microenvironmental exposure assessment, toxicological mechanisms, and demographic stratification to advance spatially-precise governance in megacities.
How to cite: Wang, H., Fu, J., Huang, H., Zhang, J., Tan, X., Ni, H., and Wu, J.: Spatiotemporal variations of ground-level ozone on public health in megacities: a continuous analysis of Shenzhen, China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21844, 2026.
