PICO
This session aims to showcase studies, projects, and initiatives addressing wildfire risk and vulnerability assessment, damage analysis, prevention measures, and local adaptation strategies in the WUI. We particularly welcome contributions focusing on participatory approaches, community-based risk reduction, resilience of communities and the built environment, as well as public awareness and education, household and community preparedness, stakeholder engagement, recovery processes, and lessons learned within disaster risk reduction frameworks. We also encourage submissions that critically examine prevailing wildfire management approaches and explore wildfire risk in relation to large-scale land-use change and associated agricultural, nature conservation, and climate mitigation policies. Inter- and transdisciplinary research addressing the social and political dimensions of wildfire risk, and translating scientific knowledge into policy- and action-relevant insights, is especially encouraged.
By sharing experiences, methods, and lessons learned across diverse geographical and socio-environmental contexts, this session aims to foster dialogue on wildfire risk management and support the development of practical, transferable solutions for reducing wildfire impacts in the WUI worldwide.
PICO: Tue, 5 May, 10:45–12:30 | PICO spot 1a
The annual State of Wildfires is a community-led report produced by wildfire scientists from around 60 institutions worldwide, bringing together expertise to examine the most extreme wildfire events of the previous year. The report provides a rich and timely evidence base on where and why extreme fires occurred, how predictable these events were, and the role of climate change in shaping both recent impacts and future risk, drawing on local knowledge and expertise of those in the affected regions. However, turning this scientific knowledge into meaningful action requires deliberate engagement beyond the research community, which is the focus of this presentation.
Here, we look at the communication and knowledge dissemination strategy used for the most recent State of Wildfires 2024-25 release, which placed particular emphasis on policy relevance and real-world impact. Alongside the full scientific report, we developed targeted outputs including a Summary for Policymakers, executive summary, and direct engagement with decision-makers through UK Government teach-ins, Science Media Centre briefings, and national and international media interviews. The findings were also shared through workshops, COP events and pre-COP briefings with UK, Brazilian and international government representatives, helping to situate wildfire risk within wider climate, adaptation and finance discussions; which was particularly relevant as two of focus regions of the report were in Brazil.
A key message emerging from the report is that rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are essential to avoid escalating wildfire risk for generations to come. At the same time, several policy-relevant themes were highlighted, including land management, early-warning systems, carbon accounting and forest carbon projects, and the continued under-representation of wildfires within the Loss and Damage agenda and deforestation-reduction frameworks such as the Tropical Forest Finance Facility (TFFF). The dissemination process also created space to showcase impact-focused case studies, including work linking wildfire science to climate justice and climate finance discussions with firefighter groups, indigenous peoples and local communities in the Amazon and Pantanal—regions that experienced some of the most severe fires in 2024/25.
Overall, this work demonstrates how knowledge synthesis efforts like the State of Wildfires can act as a bridge between science, policy and action when communication is treated as a core part of the research process. Building on this years’ experience, we outline ideas for strengthening future dissemination, including adapting scientific outputs to better meet the needs of policymakers, practitioners and affected communities. We present this contribution as a foundation for further development and actively invite feedback on how to increase the reach, relevance and impact of future State of Wildfires reports.
For more information on the State of Wildfires project please visit: https://stateofwildfires.com/
How to cite: Wright, E., Kelley, D., Burton, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Jones, M., Barbosa, M., McNorton, J., Jarquin, M., Allan, M., Moura da Veiga, R., Spuler, F., Mindlin, J., and Dunbar, T. and the The State of Wildfires Report Co-authors: State of Wildfires Report: collaborative science driving impactful policy and action, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20669, 2026.
This study examines how elected officials, decision makers, and wildfire professionals perceive wildfire risk, including their values, planning priorities, and views on the acceptability of wildfire mitigation across the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Although funding and support for implementing FireSmart exist, a national program designed to help Canadians enhance community resilience to wildfires and reduce their adverse impacts, uptake of the program by officials and emergency professionals has been slower than hoped. To address these challenges, this research identifies key gaps in foundational knowledge that, once filled, can strengthen partnerships between local governments and wildfire mitigation experts and create more financially feasible pathways to mitigation implementation. We specifically focus on understanding how these actors make strategic choices in response to wildfire risk, how they weigh trade-offs associated with potential adverse outcomes, and the extent to which they feel empowered to shape mitigation efforts. In addition, officials’ and experts’ knowledge and use of tools derived from FireSmart is explored. Drawing on data from semi-structured interviews with elected officials, fire chiefs and senior officers from fire departments, urban planners, and emergency managers, this study assesses risk perceptions of wildfire across multiple institutional levels and explores how interviewees understand their department and personal roles and responsibilities in wildfire risk reduction. Anticipated findings include identifying themes related to institutional capacity, coordination, and differing interpretations of responsibility for mitigation, as well as determining how officials assess wildfire risk, prioritize mitigation, and understand their authority to act. These insights aim to support more targeted risk-communication and mitigation strategies in Atlantic Canada that may be replicated in similar boreal and Acadian Forest biome regions across Europe.
How to cite: Urquhart, M. and B. Kennedy, E.: Governing wildfire risk in Atlantic Canada: Decision-makers perceptions and mitigation priorities , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-451, 2026.
Wildfires arise due to a combination of dry and hot conditions that are being exacerbated through climate change, which is shifting wildfires into regions that were previously not as affected. In some regions of Switzerland, increasing and longer dry periods, extended sunshine duration, and decreasing snowpack are contributing to a projected increase in wildfire risk conditions. Although wildfires are historically uncommon in Switzerland, climate change has prompted growing concern and spurred the development of policies and plans in recent years. While there is some literature examining the history and trends of wildfires in Switzerland, research from the social science perspective is limited. This gap is particularly significant because a better understanding of policymaking and governance mechanisms can improve preventative and long-term responses aimed at reducing vulnerability to wildfire risk. The complex nature of extreme climate events requires a management and governance structure that fosters collaboration and cooperation between actors from different governance levels and disciplines, while taking into account the nature of wildfires often occurring at the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Expanding research in this area can generate insights that support more effective policymaking, streamline governance, and improve collaboration between key actors.
This paper explores these complex dynamics of collaboration and cooperation between actors (communities, governmental departments, NGOs etc.) that are involved in wildfire management in some of the most impacted regions in Switzerland: the Leuk region in the Canton of Valais and the Lugano region in the Canton of Ticino. The guiding research question is as follows: How are collaborative networks structured in the governance and management of wildfire events? To explore this question, a survey was sent to actors from local to national levels to gain an understanding of actors’ perceptions, goals, activities and collaboration with others. Keeping the prevention, preparedness, during the event, and post-fire management cycle in mind, respondents were asked which actors they collaborated with and deemed as most important at certain stages in the cycle. A social network analysis is used to examine the characteristics of the collaboration network through network ties, subgroup formation and bridging actors throughout the stages in the wildfire management cycle. The results can help identify actors that play a vital role in different stages of the cycle and especially focus on the preparedness and prevention stages. These two stages are critical for strengthening resilience, reducing vulnerability and implementing proactive policies to effectively manage the factors increasing wildfire risk. The findings can help build awareness for the importance of wildfire management in areas that are historically not as vulnerable but, due to climate change, will need to strengthen their policies, planning, and risk reduction measures.
How to cite: Krueger, A.: Examining Wildfire Governance and Management in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6835, 2026.
Given the complex administrative, organisational and operational structure of Belgium, and acknowledging the limited and scattered wildfire expertise in this country, two of Belgium’s universities (Ghent University and the University of Liège) took the initiative to bring together all Belgium’s wildfire stakeholders in the light of the emerging wildfire risk for the very first time in the fall of 2025. This first assembly of the Belgian Wildfire Network (BWN) was further catalysed by the favourable wildfire conditions throughout the course of 2025, which made that there was also an increased interest from policymakers to make a start with a comprehensive wildfire policy for Belgium.
Designing such a policy or even setting nationwide priorities is complicated considerably by the fact that responsibilities, ownership and resources are scattered over numerous agencies, services and ministries at the national and regional levels. For that reason, together with the key stakeholders in the BWN, the involved academic partners suggested to move forward in shaping Belgium’s integrated wildfire management in a scientifically supported way and define clear priorities and possible ways out. The latter was done by means of a white paper, entitled ‘Towards scientifically supported and integrated wildfire management and policy in Belgium’, identifying the current shortcomings in Belgium’s wildfire policy and highlighting possible solutions and opportunities. More specifically, it calls for setting up methodologies, initiatives systems for wildfire data collection, risk, danger and fuel assessment, training, and increasing wildfire awareness that are scientifically supported, aligned with established approaches in nearby countries facing similar wildfire conditions, uniform across the country and involving a cross-boundary collaboration between similar agencies and services in the country’s three different regions (Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia).
In this way, we hope to unite the limited wildfire expertise in Belgium and avoid that different systems are being developed independently in different regions of the country because this would not only complicate communication to the general public, but would also imply inefficient use of the limited means that are available to develop an integrated wildfire management policy for the country.
How to cite: Baetens, J. and the Belgian Wildfire Network: Bringing together Belgium’s wildfire stakeholders to initiate the design of an integrated wildfire management and policy in Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1993, 2026.
In the last decade, Cyprus has faced a sequence of extreme wildfire events—the catastrophic 2016 fire in the island’s largest forest ecosystem, the fatal 2021 wildfire in the mountainous region of Larnaca, and the unprecedented 2025 megafire in the Limassol highlands—each exposing structural gaps in national prevention, response, and post-disaster recovery mechanisms. These events underscored a critical insight: addressing contemporary wildfire risk requires coordinated action that transcends traditional institutional boundaries.
Within this context, the SupportCY initiative of the Bank of Cyprus, originally founded in 2020 as a national solidarity platform during the COVID-19 crisis, has evolved into a globally unique tripartite network that formally integrates state authorities, private-sector organisations, and academic/research institutions into a unified framework for crisis management, wildfire resilience, and civil protection.
Today, SupportCY operates as the only known international model in which over two hundred entities—including ministries, emergency services, universities, research centres, private companies, community councils, and volunteer units—collaborate systematically on wildfire prevention, operational readiness, and long-term recovery.
This integrated structure enables multi-layered interventions: development and deployment of training programmes for citizens and frontline responders; establishment of the National Bee Reproduction Centre in fire-affected zones to restore ecological functions and support local livelihoods; scientific assessments and redesign proposals for the reconstruction of critical infrastructure and high-risk communities; provision of psychosocial support services for families and children; and active participation in European research and innovation programmes aimed at enhancing wildfire intelligence, digital resilience, and the capabilities of professional and volunteer first responders. Additionally, SupportCY operates its own specialised Volunteer Corps, equipped with trained responders and firefighting vehicles, officially recognised by both the Cyprus Fire Service and the Hellenic Fire Service.
The presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of these collaborative initiatives, illustrating how they emerged through real-time operational demands, local community needs, and evidence-based scientific methodologies. It will further demonstrate how the SupportCY ecosystem has become a living laboratory of applied multi-stakeholder governance, capable of accelerating innovation, bridging research with field operations, and producing actionable solutions for the increasingly complex wildfire regimes of the Mediterranean. As the only global example of a structured, permanent, and operational state–private–academic partnership for wildfire resilience and civil protection, this case offers a replicable model for nations seeking to redesign their disaster-management architectures under the pressures of climate change.
How to cite: Stavrou, M.: Enhancing Wildfire Prevention, Response, and Resilience in Cyprus Through Public–Private–Academic Collaboration: The SupportCY Model., EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1530, 2026.
Recent fire events in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) - such as the Athens wildfire in 2024 - highlight the urgent need for governments to strengthen preparedeness and resource management. While structural vulnerabilities, evacuation strategies, and population preparedness have received considerable attention, a persistent and insufficiently addressed gap remains: the lack of empirical data on the effectiveness of traditional water-based firefighting methods under realistic conditions. This data gap is particularly acute for Central and Northern European countries, where forest fires are still often contained using water-based approaches solely. Operational guidelines from regions with a long history of fires are rarely adapted to local vegetation, infrastructure, or climatic conditions. As fire regimes intensify and spread to new geographic areas, this reliance on unvalidated assumptions regarding fire suppression risks compromise preventative planning and the resilience of fire-prone areas.
This article presents a field-tested methodology for quantifying the effectiveness of water-based fire suppression at field-relevant fire intensities (>1000kW/m). For the first time, it defines an empirical operational window that directly guides the planning of risk mitigation measures in the WUI as well as water reservoir dimensioning. Conventional fire suppression guidelines rely largely on theoretical calculations of critical water depth, derived from simplified energy balance models or expert opinions, and their empirical validation remains limited in medium- and high-intensity fire environments.
To address this gap, we developed a field-reproducible experimental protocol that combines: (i) precise characterization of drift-prone water deposition using a controlled grid and cup system, (ii) controlled pre-wetting of natural fuel beds using a bespoke soaker hose as a water distribution system, (iii) measurement of fire intensity at the fire front using calibrated geometric flame models, and (iv) a binary classification of containment outcomes based on containment or burn-through events. Ten experiments, conducted during test and controlled fires in Portugal and Spain, provided a validated dataset establishing a correlation between the applied water depth (0.9 to 3.1 mm) and the extinguishing results of advanced flames with intensities ranging from approximately 2,200 to 5,700 kW/m².
These results define the first empirically documented operational window for a ground-based fire suppression system and demonstrate that effective containment can be achieved with water depths significantly lower than those recommended by existing theoretical guidelines. This finding has direct implications for wildfire prevention: it enables more precise resource planning, supports the development of shelter strategies based on realistic extinguishing performance, and provides a quantitative basis for assessing the role of water distribution networks in community-level disaster preparedness. For countries newly exposed to fire risk, this methodology offers an adaptable and transferable framework for adjusting suppression targets, aligning emergency planning with local vegetation and infrastructure, and reducing vulnerability through evidence-based prevention.
How to cite: Hofmann, M. P.: Reassessing Traditional Suppression Practices: New Empirical Evidence for WUI Prevention and Preparedness, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5805, 2026.
A fire in Ofunato-city, Iwate on February 2025 became the largest wildland fire in 60 years in Japan, burning 3370 ha. While often called Ofunato wildland fire, the burned area contained90 homes and 136 non-residential structures that were destroyed, rendering this disaster a a wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire. In recent years in Japan, WUI fires happened, threating communities, yet this was not considered an issue as WUI fires in Japan are much smaller compared to those in North America or Europe. Thus, the research on WUI fires in Japan lags behind other parts of the world. In this study, vegetation native to Japan was combusted to investigate the fire behavior as well as firebrand production in order to develop knowledge on local vegetation to prevent fire spread.
How to cite: Suzuki, S. and Manzello, S. L.: Fire behavior of Japanese vegetation – lessons learned from Ofunato Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fire, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3272, 2026.
Across the world, extreme wildfire events are intensifying, and their cascading impacts on ecosystems, human health, economies, and livelihoods are expanding. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent heatwaves driven by anthropogenic climate change, combined with land cover change and inadequate land management, are increasing wildfire risk, occurrence, intensity, and frequency worldwide. Despite growing scientific evidence that climate change is amplifying wildfire risk, the impacts of wildfires remain largely absent from international climate policy debates, particularly within the Loss & Damage (L&D) agenda established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In September 2025, representatives of local volunteer and community fire brigades, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs), wildfire and climate scientists, policymakers, and climate finance experts convened in Brasilia, Brazil, for a multi-stakeholder workshop aimed at identifying critical gaps in wildfire governance, funding mechanisms, and justice-oriented approaches to climate risk. During the meeting, we discussed the attribution analysis of the 2024 fire seasons in Amazonia and Pantanal following the methodology of the State of Wildfires report (https://stateofwildfires.com/). We found that burned areas were, on average, 20 times larger in Amazonia and 50 times larger in the Pantanal due to human-induced climate change.
Testimonies from IPLCs, shared during meetings before and throughout the Brasilia workshop, highlighted profound changes consistent with scientific findings. Participants reported shifts in the timing and intensity of the fire season, a lengthening dry season, worsening health conditions, increased food insecurity and deleterious cultural impact. The loss of Indigenous and community-managed lands, alongside the erosion of traditional patch-based fire practices that historically helped limit fire spread and maintain landscape connectivity, further exacerbates wildfire impacts and vulnerability.
The escalating impacts of wildfire activity, intensified by anthropogenic climate change, are generating substantial economic and non-economic losses that disproportionately affect already vulnerable populations who contributed little to climate change. Recognizing wildfires as a core component of the Loss and Damage framework is therefore not only a scientific necessity but also a matter of climate justice.
This work is part of an ongoing effort under the Building Approaches to fund local Solutions with climate Evidence (BASE; https://baseinitiative.net/). The Initiative explores ways to meaningfully combine the lived experience and knowledge of local and Indigenous communities with climate and wildfire science to better inform policy and decision-making processes. By doing so, BASE contributes to the transformation of the climate finance system - particularly in the adaptation and L&D agendas - so that it is more just, inclusive, and accessible to frontline communities.
How to cite: Barbosa, M., Veiga, R., Spuler, F., Ferreira, I., Mindlin, J., Kelley, D., Matusevich, V., Rodrigues, R., Ratilla, D., Valette, M., Estevez, R., Kumaruara, T., Dantas, C., and Hurtado, S.: Climate evidence for Loss & Damage in the context of Wildfires in Amazonia and Pantanal Biomes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6936, 2026.
Cropland fires represent the vast majority of fire incidents in the agricultural plains of northern France. These fires are characterized by very rapid rates of spread, similar to grassland fires (Cruz et al., 2020), which makes their control particularly challenging in densely populated areas.
Our study focuses on the Seine-et-Marne department, located east of the Paris metropolitan region. This territory is characterized by a strong interface between urban and suburban settlements and extensive agricultural land, combined with intense housing densification and the development of logistics and industrial hubs. These dynamics have led to the emergence of a rural–urban interface (RUI) marked by high fuel continuity. Unlike southern France, this interface is not subject to specific fuel discontinuity regulations such as the Obligations Légales de Débroussaillement, increasing the exposure of human settlements to fast-spreading cropland fires.
We first analyse recent fire incidents that have spread from croplands to residential or industrial areas in order to illustrate the specific vulnerability of the rural-urban interface to this type of fires. These case studies are used to identify operational challenges and to examine how fire services have adapted their response strategies to this hazard. Secondly, we analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of cropland fires using operational data from the Seine-et-Marne Fire Department (SDIS 77). We quantify the proportion of fires occurring within interface areas by applying buffer zones corresponding to the theoretical fuel management regulations implemented in southern France. This approach allows us to estimate the share of fires occurring in close proximity to human settlements. Finally, remote sensing data are used both to validate the operational fire database and to further document cropland fire events within the RUI through satellite imagery. This combined approach enables us to quantify and characterize the specific vulnerability of rural–urban interfaces to cropland fires.
Based on these results, we draw broader lessons for the assessment and management of wildfire risk in non-forested agricultural landscapes throughout Europe (Wang et al., 2025). While extensive forest fires represent a major operational challenge for fire services at the national scale, cropland fires constitute a significant and often underestimated risk for fire departments in northern France. These fires operating at different scales, there needs to be more specific research to understand, prevent and fight those more efficiently.
Bibliography :
Cruz, M. G., Hurley, R. J., Bessell, R., & Sullivan, A. L. (2020). Fire behaviour in wheat crops–effect of fuel structure on rate of fire spread. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 29(3), 258-271.
Wang, J., Zhong, X., Zhao, J., Shen, X., Wang, M., He, J., Meng, X., Chen,Q., Lu, X., Wang, L., Yue, C. (2025). Spatiotemporal changes in global cropland fire activity from 2003 to 2020. Global and Planetary Change, 255
How to cite: de Blic, G.: Fires at the interface: the case of cropland fires in the Paris metropolitan region, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7699, 2026.
Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are an important issue globally. To understand the change of WUI, we develop a 9-km Worldwide Unified Wildland-Urban Interface (WUWUI) database for 2001-2020 with Random Forest models and satellite data. We find that WUI has been increasing in all populated continents from 2001 to 2020 and the global relative increase is 24%, with the largest relative increase (~59%) over Africa. Global total fire counts decrease by 10% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of fire counts increases by 23%. The global total burned area decreases by 22% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of burned area increases by 35%. These are mainly due to the expansion of the WUI area. On all the populated continents, the WUI fractions of fire counts are higher than the WUI fractions of burned area, implying that WUI fires tend to have smaller sizes than wildland fires. Despite the growing importance of WUI fire, the impact of WUI fires on air quality and health is largely understudied and less understood at the global scale compared to that of wildland fires. Building on the recent progress, here we present the first global analysis of the effects of WUI fires on air quality impacts and health using an state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model – the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols model (MUSICAv0).
How to cite: Levelt, P. and Tang, W.: Global Expansion of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and WUI fires and the impact of WUI fires on global air quality, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15311, 2026.
Wildfires increasingly affect built environments in Austria, particularly in areas where settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities intersect with forested landscapes (the Wildland-Urban Interface, WUI). Buildings of different functions – ranging from residential housing to industrial facilities, commercial sites, and tourism infrastructure – exhibit diverse vulnerability patterns due to variations in construction, use, surrounding land cover, and the presence of combustible or hazardous materials. Addressing these differences requires a flexible and transferable assessment approach that goes beyond traditional building classifications.
This contribution presents a comprehensive assessment tool for evaluating wildfire vulnerability across a wide spectrum of building types in the Austrian context. The tool integrates structural characteristics (e.g. construction materials, roofs, openings), functional aspects related to building use (e.g. storage, production processes, visitor density), and environmental factors in the immediate surroundings, including vegetation, ground cover, and adjacent infrastructure. By combining these elements, the tool supports a differentiated yet harmonised analysis of wildfire vulnerability applicable to residential, industrial, commercial, and tourism-related buildings. The tool also distinguishes between crown fire, ground fire, and spotting to better capture fire-structure interactions and to reflect the specific vulnerability patterns associated with each wildfire type.
Designed with practical implementation in mind, the approach supports spatial comparison, identification of vulnerability hotspots, and prioritisation of mitigation measures at the local scale. The Austrian Wildland-Urban Interface serves as the primary application context, reflecting region-specific conditions such as alpine terrain, land-use patterns, and vegetation types.
Besides the tool, a secondary product of the project is a handbook for municipalities and local stakeholders, providing guidance on indicator selection, data collection, interpretation of results, and practical applications in planning, risk management, and prevention strategies. By translating scientific assessment methods into an operational tool, the study aims to support evidence-based decision-making and strengthen wildfire resilience across diverse building types in Austria.
How to cite: Fuchs, S., Vacik, H., Müller, M., Echtler, P., Wilimek, L., and Papathoma-Köhle, M.: A multi-purpose tool for assessing wildfire vulnerability of buildings in Austria: from residential areas to industry, commerce, and tourism, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11415, 2026.
Wildfire hazard emerges from the interplay of stochastic ignitions, evolving atmospheric conditions, and heterogeneous fuel landscapes, producing large spatial and temporal variability that is rarely captured by currently available risk assessment frameworks. We introduce a probabilistic framework for wildfire risk analysis that treats wildfire losses as spatially distributed random variables and explicitly accounts for uncertainty evolution throughout the wildfire hazard-to-loss continuum. This perspective provides a richer description of wildfire risk beyond single-value risk indicators. To efficiently propagate uncertainty in key drivers such as ignition likelihood, wind conditions, and fuel properties, the framework adopts a deterministic uncertainty propagation strategy based on the Generalized Unscented Transform. This approach captures the nonlinear nature of fire behavior models while avoiding the computational burden associated with generating large Monte Carlo ensembles. The framework is organized in a modular manner, allowing individual hazard, damage and loss components to be coupled consistently while remaining adaptable to alternative data sources, wildfire models, and future climate. An important outcome of the proposed formulation is the derivation of spatially explicit exceedance-rate and hazard curves for wildfire behavior variables, providing probabilistic metrics that are well suited for natural hazards assessment and comparative risk analysis. The methodology is demonstrated using the 2018 Camp Fire in California, where it reproduces observed burn probability patterns and reveals the spatial distribution of exceedance rates for multiple fire behavior indicators with substantial computational efficiency. By emphasizing computational efficiency and systematic uncertainty treatment, this framework contributes to advancing wildfire risk assessment within the natural hazards community and supports novel uncertainty-informed approaches to wildfire hazard mapping and mitigation planning.
How to cite: Bavandpour, M., Or, D., and Ebrahimian, H.: Rethinking Wildfire Risk Assessment: An Efficient and Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Framework, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16115, 2026.
Energetic landscapes emerge from the spatial coupling of energy resources, land use, and environmental risk. In fire-prone regions, wildfires increasingly act as a territorial constraint that reshapes where land-based energy production can be realized. However, most assessments of solar energy potential rely on static representations of land availability and historical climate conditions, limiting their relevance under climate change.
This study develops an interpretable machine learning framework to predict daily human-caused wildfire occurrence and extends it by integrating climate change scenarios to explore how future wildfire risk interacts with solar energy potential across degraded and previously disturbed lands. A stacking ensemble model is trained using daily meteorological variables, environmental characteristics, and indicators of human accessibility. SHAP-based interpretation is applied to identify key drivers of wildfire occurrence under present-day conditions. Climate scenario data are subsequently introduced to project future wildfire susceptibility, which is spatially overlaid with estimates of solar energy potential to characterize shifts in energetic landscapes.
The results show that short-term meteorological extremes dominate present-day wildfire occurrence, while accessibility-related factors reflect the spatial imprint of human activity. Under future climate scenarios, wildfire susceptibility intensifies and expands spatially, intersecting with areas currently identified as having high solar potential. As a result, both the magnitude and spatial configuration of realizable energy potential are dynamically reshaped when wildfire risk is treated as an integral component of the energy landscape rather than an external disturbance.
By framing wildfire risk as a constitutive element of energetic landscapes, this study provides action-relevant spatial insights into how climate-driven hazards may redefine land-based climate mitigation potential under increasing climate uncertainty.
How to cite: Cho, M., Choi, Y., and Park, C.: Wildfire risk as a dynamic constraint shaping energetic landscapes under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22907, 2026.
Machine learning has been applied to several aspects of forest fire management, particularly to estimate the danger associated with forest fires. An important aspect of fire danger assessment is the successful detection of fires and a low rate of false positives in the daily fire danger index forecast. We present an ensemble-based approach for forecasting the data-driven fire danger index (FDI) using a Convolution LSTM architecture, which combines elements of both CNN and LSTM. Our approach is driven by operational considerations, which require not only high fire recall but also low number of false positives flagged by the model. In this talk, I will demonstrate our results from our ensemble approach in forecasting the ensemble-average FDI.
This work is partly supported by the ARCA project which is funded by Interreg IPAADRION programme under the Interreg Funds (European Regional Development Fund and IPA III), agreement number IPA-ADRION00107.
How to cite: Alvi, S. and Epicoco, I.: Strength in many: Ensemble-based approach for data-driven Fire Danger Index forecast, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4481, 2026.
In recent years, the frequency and severity of wildfires worldwide have increased substantially, driven by climate change, deforestation, population growth and progressively drier environmental conditions in many regions. In this context, the identification of suitable scooping areas within inland waterbodies is critical for the operational efficiency and safety of aerial firefighting operations. Amphibious firefighting airplanes require reliable scooping areas to refill water tanks during touch-and-go maneuvers, thus enabling rapid response to wildfires. This study investigates the feasibility of leveraging Earth Observation data to identify potential scooping areas that satisfy stringent operational requirements, namely a minimum length of 2,000 m, a minimum width of 100 m, and a minimum water depth of 3 m to ensure safe and effective operations. We utilize DLR’s Surface Water Inventory and Monitoring (SWIM) water extent product to delineate permanent inland waterbodies from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery. These waterbodies are intersected with exclusion zones, such as road and rail infrastructure or protected areas, and subsequently filtered based on geometric and physical criteria, including waterbodies’ size, shape, and estimated depth, to eliminate unsuitable candidates. Due to the lack of consistent, large-scale bathymetric data, we train a regression model to classify water surfaces in Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as either deeper or shallower than 3 m, because only waterbodies exceeding this threshold are considered suitable for aerial scooping. For each remaining waterbody, a computationally efficient, grid-based iterative shape-fitting algorithm is applied to identify a finite set of potential scooping configurations. These candidate sites are further evaluated through an additional filtering step that assesses the availability of unobstructed approach and departure flight corridors, taking surrounding surface elevation into account. The complete workflow is implemented as a modular processing chain that integrates automated data acquisition, preprocessing, and analysis. It was developed and validated for a representative study region in Germany and scaled to continental Europe.
How to cite: Wieland, M., Otto, C., Martinis, S., Strunz, G., and Taubenböck, H.: Large-scale detection of scooping areas from space for amphibious firefighting aircrafts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6982, 2026.
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has led to a significant increase in the number of landscape fires, a major part of which is localized in the combat zone. Such fires cause economic and ecosystem losses in Ukraine. They also lead to additional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that affect the global climate system and can therefore be monetized and claimed as reparations from the aggressor country, based on the cost of GHG emissions. This poses the task of attribution by distinguishing fires caused by military actions from those caused by natural factors or ordinary human activity typical of peacetime.
This study aims to develop and test a methodology for attributing landscape fires using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) – a fire hazard indicator that considers meteorological conditions, fuel moisture, and wind. “Attribution” in the context of this methodology is defined as the fraction of landscape fires caused by military actions relative to their total area.
Two approaches were considered for attribution: a historical analogue and spatial comparison.
The historical approach was rejected due to significant differences in weather conditions, land use, agricultural practices, legislative requirements, and the lack of detailed fire mapping in Ukraine before 2022.
Instead, a spatial comparison method was applied, based on the assumption that for the same land-cover type under the same weather conditions (FWI) during the same season, fire areas should be proportional across the entire territory of Ukraine in the absence of war.
The attribution methodology uses a geographic information system and distinguishes:
“buffer zone” (direct war impact) – a cumulative 30-kilometer buffer on both sides of the moving frontline in 2022; and
“controlled zone” – territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine, without ground hostilities and outside the buffer zone.
Initial data included shapefiles of (1) fire polygons (derived from Sentinel, MODIS, and VIIRS); (2) FWI raster (from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service for the European Forest Fire Information System, EFFIS); and (3) land-cover raster data (coniferous and deciduous forests, croplands, other).
First, areas under four land-cover types were selected within the controlled territory, approximately equal in size to the same types in buffer zone, and daily FWI classes were assigned to each fire according to its geolocation. The next step involved calculating the fractions of area under fire for each FWI class and land-cover type in both zones for every calendar season. As a result of comparing these relationships, a table of attribution coefficients (in percent) was obtained, demonstrating that most fires in the buffer zone can be attributed to the war for all land-cover types and seasons over the three-year period.
Summary. The developed approach allows estimation of the fraction of fires that can be directly attributed to Russian aggression, taking into account spatial and meteorological conditions without access to ground observations in combat zones, occupied territories, or mined areas. The methodology was used to calculate additional emissions in the “Climate Damage Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine” reports (Lennard de Klerk et al., 2025) and is intended to serve as a basis for claimed reparations.
How to cite: Kryshtop, L. and Krakovska, S.: Attribution of landscape fires to warfare vs peacetime drivers, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3524, 2026.
During the course of large outdoor fires, such as wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, it has long been reported that firebrand showers are a significant source of home ignition, leading to massive destruction of infrastructure. Firebrand showers have been known to be generated from large outdoor fires for centuries, long before the WUI fire problem gained prominence and worldwide attention. Yet, in the storied history of fire research, an international standard to generate firebrand showers safely in a laboratory setting has only been recently published in 2024 by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). In this presentation, a review of the firebrand problem will be presented, including the path to develop the ISO standard firebrand generator, and provide a perspective on where current firebrand research is headed.
How to cite: Manzello, S. L. and Suzuki, S.: Taming the Dragon: The Path to the Development of the ISO Standard Firebrand Generator, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3270, 2026.
