Extra-tropical cyclones and storms are key drivers of weather variability, extremes, and associated socio-economic impacts across densely populated regions of the globe. Understanding their observed and projected trends is crucial for improving climate diagnostics, risk assessments, and adaptation strategies in a warming climate. Most of our fundamental theories for the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the extra-tropics are based on “dry” atmospheric dynamics. Despite these recent efforts, large uncertainties in representing diabatic processes and their impact remain, leading to upscale error growth and enhanced ensemble spread, highlighting the continued need to further our understanding and to develop new and revise existing paradigms. This session therefore addresses both fundamental scientific challenges and urgent societal needs by linking physical processes, climate change signals, and potential impacts.
This session welcomes contributions covering mid-latitude storm systems, including but not limited to the following topics:
• Fundamental dynamics of cyclones - in all different stages of their life cycle - and their mesoscale features (fronts, jets, precipitation structures, dry intrusions)
• Role of diabatic processes for the dynamics, predictability, and future changes of extratropical weather system
• Representation of mid-latitude storms in AI-based weather and climate models
• Diagnostics of observed and projected trends in cyclone frequency, intensity, and storm tracks; including potential insights from contributions from measurement campaigns
• Predictability and forecasting on synoptic to sub-seasonal time scales
• Innovative methods, including AI/ML approaches, for cyclone detection, classification, or impact assessment
• Storm-related impacts, vulnerabilities, and risk-transfer mechanisms under a changing climate
By bringing together communities working on dynamics, diagnostics, impacts, field campaigns, and new methodologies, this session aims to provide a comprehensive platform for advancing our understanding of mid-latitude cyclones and their role in the past, present, and future climate system.
Solicited authors:
Suzanne L. Gray, Julian F. Quinting