HS4.6 | From sub-seasonal forecasting to climate projections: predicting water availability and servicing water sectors
EDI
From sub-seasonal forecasting to climate projections: predicting water availability and servicing water sectors
Convener: Tim aus der Beek | Co-conveners: Friedrich BoeingECSECS, Giada CeratoECSECS

This session addresses advances in climate and hydro-meteorological forecasts and projections, and their role in predicting water availability and serving water sectors. It welcomes, without being restricted to, presentations on:

• Advances in sub-seasonal, seasonal and decadal hydrological predictions;
• Process-based, data-driven, AI, machine learning, and hybrid methods;
• Seamless forecasting techniques and applications;
• Hydro-climate forecasts and scenario-based projections of water availability and hydrological extremes (floods, droughts, compound events);
• Methods for post-processing and refining the hydro-climate information (e.g., downscaling, bias correction, temporal disaggregation, spatial interpolation).
• From (near) real-time monitoring to predicting water availability;
• Propagation of uncertainty through the forecasting chain;
• Impact-based assessments of forecasts for decision-making, including approaches to communicate and visualize forecast information
• Co-development of forecasts between scientists and service providers;
• Operational hydro-meteorological forecasting systems and hydro-climate services;
• Forecast verification, sensitivity analysis and tools; and
• Perspectives on forecast value for end users.

The session will bring together research scientists and operational managers in hydrology, meteorology and climate, with the aim of sharing experiences and foster discussions on this momentous topic. We encourage presentations with implications for water resources management, drinking water supply, transport, energy production, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, forestry, health, insurance, tourism and infrastructure.

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