This trans-disciplinary session goes beyond the disciplinary boundaries of Earth and environmental sciences to address socially relevant issues associated to geological and climate-related hazards, by integrating disciplinary paradigms and participatory research approaches. Geological and climate related hazards have always been part of Earth’s dynamics, but climate change, together with increasing land use and consumption, is intensifying their frequency, impact and societal consequences, escalating into disaster risk situations.
Effective external communication of risk is essential for the approval and implementation of prevention policies, mitigation plans and resilience pathways for institutions, communities and territories, and for strengthening trust between society and institutions. Understanding how these risks have been communicated and managed in the past can provide insights for planning future resilience actions. In this context, attention is given to how institutions incorporate risk into policies and programmes, how scientific knowledge is transferred into decision-making, and what challenges arise in communicating complex and evolving risk scenarios before, during and after catastrophic events.
The session welcomes contributions that explore the intersection of natural hazard research and social sciences, including studies on risk perception, behavioural change in preparedness and response, awareness, and the mental health impacts associated with hazardous events. Disaster risk reduction strategies should be informed not only by hazard modelling, but also by the social dynamics that shape real-world readiness and response among residents, tourists, experts and other stakeholders, as well as the protection of cultural and natural heritage.
A special focus will be devoted to case studies illustrating how institutions and scientists have addressed social crises induced by one or more geological or climate-related phenomena, how communication has activated—or failed to activate—the chain of civil responsibility, and how nature-based solutions can contribute to reducing the negative effects of climate change while supporting well-being and mental health. An emphasis will be placed on the concept of the mental map of heritage habitats, investigated through psychogeographical approaches, as a key element to be preserved and considered in retrofit, emergency management and post-disaster rebuilding processes.
Orals: Tue, 5 May, 14:00–15:45 | Room 1.31/32
The aim of this paper is to present and analyze the ways of perception, description, representation, interpretation and communication of natural phenomena in the field of Earth sciences (mainly volcanic eruptions and earthquakes), whose effects and environmental impacts have been regarded as catastrophic in the Italian scientific periodicals during the second half of the 18th century, up to the middle of the 19th century. These historical sources include scholarly and popular journals as well as proceedings of academies and scientific societies. The selection of periodicals was primarily headed by their relevance for the history of science communication in Italy, their wide circulation, the journalistic slant and the relevance in terms of "topic coverage", as well as editorial longevity. The goal is to define how the geological catastrophic phenomena were described in these printed sources, possibly through the use of a specific written and sometime visual language. Particular attention will be given to the study of the different ways of communicating volcanic and seismical phenomena to different kind of readers, taking into account the evolution of volcanological and seismological theories during the same time span. Moreover, possible traces of early forms of risk communication on natural hazards and geological phenomena, will be considered and analyzed. This paper contains some results of the work undertaken by the research unit of the University of Insubria (Varese, Italy), within the Italian national research project PRIN 2022 - "Communicating and Representing the Earth: Structures and Phenomena in the Italian Context (17th - 19th century)".
How to cite: Vaccari, E. and Faccioli, M.: The representation of geological catastrophic phenomena in the Italian journals between 18th and 19th centuries: description, interpretation and possible risk communication, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15322, 2026.
The missions of volcano observatories have continuously and significantly evolved since the official opening of Vesuvius observatory and the official speech of the first Director, Macedonio Melloni, in 1845. In his original view, a volcano observatory plays three major roles in the 1) discovery, caracterization and intepretation of the influence of sismo-volcanic activity on monitored physico-chemical parameters, 2) understanding of the structure and the functioning of our planet and 3) support to civil defense for risk mitigation and crisis management.
Societal pressure, national policies and technical evolution determine the relative proportions of the contributions observatory can effectively provide in these 3 fields. We here analyze a set of recent examples issued from the monitoring of volcanoes having a variable rate of activity and contrasting eruptive styles, to explore the multiple roles volcano observatories play and their fast evolution with respect to their original definition.
Policies aiming at improving society resiliency to volcanic hazards need trustworthy sources of information.
Communication societies produce fast evolving communication media and face an increasing crisis of confidence. In this context, volcano observatories represent the source of reliable, credible, accurate and unbiased information on monitored parameters, able to integrate and validate multiple data sources and to deliver an impartial analysis of alert levels.
However, at national levels, multiple sources of trustworthy information on hazard and risks exist and they are currently disseminated between several monitoring centers and academic institutions, whose coordination is critical for the delivery of reliable, credible and unbiased information to authorities and population.
We argue that improving coordination and message delivery requires not only the acknowledgement of the fundamental role of scientific debate and the education of population and stackeholders about data uncertainty, but most important, the integration in a unified approach of highly contrasting time scales inherent to hazard (long term) and monitoring (short term) of continuosly evolving natural systems like volcanoes.
How to cite: Di Muro, A.: Do we still need volcano observatories?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22653, 2026.
Flood risk maps increasingly shape planning, insurance, and household decisions, yet growing evidence shows that current mapping practice leads to decision outcomes that are not well aligned with underlying flood probabilities. Drawing together experimental and synthesis research, this presentation demonstrates that flood risk maps systematically elevate perceived risk, suppress housing demand, and generate socioeconomic effects that show limited sensitivity to actual flood likelihood. Experimental willingness-to-pay studies show that the presence of flood risk information reduces housing demand across all mapped zones, including very low risk areas, regardless of map framing. At the same time, synthesis evidence shows that technical language, colour choices, binary zoning, and limited treatment of uncertainty consistently weaken understanding, trust, and proportional response. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that improving flood models alone improves decision making. We argue that flood risk maps function as behavioural interventions rather than purely informational products and, therefore, require careful reconsideration of how they are designed, tested, and governed. The presentation calls for mandatory behavioural testing of flood maps, clearer limits on map-led disclosure, and stronger integration with contextual, participatory, and non-map-based communication approaches. Without change, flood risk mapping will continue to transfer modelling uncertainty onto households, markets, and communities, with decision consequences that are unevenly distributed and potentially detrimental to long-term flood resilience.
How to cite: Seenath, A.: Flood risk mapping practice must change to support fair and informed decisions , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4081, 2026.
Natural risks - such as floods, earthquakes, wildfires and extreme climate events - pose growing challenges to public administrations, calling into question traditional legal categories of prevention, planning, and administrative responsibility. The increasing frequency and intensity of such events, combined with scientific uncertainty and climate change, require administrative systems to operate under conditions of structural risk rather than exceptional emergency. This panel examines the legal role of public administration in the governance of natural risk, focusing on administrative law instruments, decision-making processes, and accountability mechanisms. Particular attention is paid to the shift from ex post emergency management to ex ante risk prevention and mitigation, including spatial planning, environmental regulation, civil protection frameworks, and precautionary approaches. The discussion highlights how risk reshapes administrative discretion, procedural duties, and the relationship between scientific expertise and legal decision-making. The panel also addresses the issue of public liability and institutional responsibility, exploring how courts and oversight bodies assess administrative action or inaction in the face of foreseeable natural hazards. Questions of standard of care, proportionality, and reasonableness are analyzed in light of evolving jurisprudence and regulatory models. Furthermore, the panel considers the multilevel dimension of risk governance, involving local, national and supranational authorities, and the tensions between decentralization, coordination and effectiveness. By adopting a comparative and interdisciplinary legal perspective, the panel aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of how administrative law can adapt to the governance of natural risk, balancing public safety, environmental protection and the limits of administrative capacity in an era of permanent uncertainty.
How to cite: licata, G. F.: When Prevention Fails: Law, Administration and the Politics of Natural Risk, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14784, 2026.
Effective prevention of natural risks requires an interdisciplinary approach that combines social sciences, legal analysis, and public governance tools. This contribution explores how social vulnerability assessments—understood as analytical instruments capable of identifying differential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of communities—can inform and reshape legal frameworks governing public spending, administrative action, and public contracts. By focusing on territorial case dynamics, the paper demonstrates how preventive policies are strengthened when social knowledge is systematically integrated into legal decision-making processes, particularly in the allocation of resources and the design of contractual instruments for risk mitigation.
The analysis highlights the role of law not merely as a reactive system responding to emergencies, but as a proactive mechanism capable of translating social insights into binding preventive actions. Special attention is devoted to the principles of precaution, proportionality, and sound financial management, showing how they can be operationalized through procurement strategies, planning instruments, and budgetary choices that prioritize vulnerable territories and populations. From this perspective, social vulnerability assessments function as a bridge between empirical knowledge and normative choices, enhancing the legitimacy and effectiveness of preventive interventions.
Ultimately, the paper argues that interdisciplinary governance is essential for sustainable and socially just risk prevention. Integrating social science methodologies into legal and administrative frameworks allows public authorities to move beyond sectoral approaches, fostering a preventive culture grounded in territorial realities, equity considerations, and long-term resilience. Such an approach contributes to redefining public interest in risk governance, aligning legal obligations with social needs and reinforcing the capacity of public law to address complex environmental challenges.
How to cite: Castello, V. and Lubrano, B.: Integrating Social Sciences and Law in Preventive Natural Risk Policies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11317, 2026.
London is susceptible to river, tidal and surface water flooding and the city has a very high concentration of high value property and infrastructure. A significant proportion of this risk is, at present, very effectively managed via the Thames Barrier, which is estimated to be protecting over £320bn of assets.
However, nearly 30% of the properties in England that are at high surface water flood risk, and around 25% at medium risk, are located in London (Environment Agency, 2024). Climate change is, and will, also increase this flood risk: rising sea levels increase the threat from storm surges flooding the Thames; and increasing rainfall intensity will increase surface water flooding and river flooding risk. In addition, the increasing prevalence of impermeable surfaces in urban environments (e.g. roads, houses, driveways, artificial lawns), currently at around 50% of the urban environment, increases the rainfall runoff that can overwhelm drainage systems (Climate Change Committee, 2025).
This increasing risk is particularly acute in London. The UK’s 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) showed that “direct and indirect expected annual damages” in the London area could increase from £195m per year in the present day to £500m per year in 2080s if applying a 4°C, high population growth and reduced adaptation scenario (Sayers et al., 2020). London also has some specific vulnerabilities. The London Underground can act as a sink for excess surface water and, for 2014-2021, 66 different tube stations were flooded, with 2021 seeing 141 hours of station closures. Similarly, there is a high number of basement flats in London (approximately 56,000) that are vulnerable to flooding (Greater London Authority, 2025).
To assess how well the residents of London are prepared for current and future flood risk, we surveyed 500 residents of central London to understand their understanding of the risks and the actions that they have taken.
Our results show that over two thirds (69%) of respondents felt that they are “not very informed” (42%) or “not at all informed” (27%) regarding their flood risk. This is reflected in a poor correlation between how residents assessed their flood risk with the flood risk as calculated by England’s Environment Agency. Londoners do not feel prepared for flooding either: respondents felt that they are “not very prepared” (40%) or “not at all prepared” (41%) for flooding. 66% of respondents also reported having taken no actions to prepare for flooding.
These results point to an urgent need to communicate more widely about how residents of London should prepare for flood risk.
References
Climate Change Committee (2025) Progress in Preparing for Climate Change - 2025 Progress Report to Parliament. London: CCC.
Environment Agency (2024) National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024. Bristol, EA.
Greater London Authority (2025) Climate adaptation.
Sayers, P. B., Horritt, M., Carr, S., Kay, A., Mauz, J., Lamb, R., and Penning-Rowsell, E. (2020) Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3): Future flood risk. London: CCC.
How to cite: Russell, A. and Khosa, P.: How well are Londoners prepared for flooding?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1751, 2026.
Friuli Venezia Giulia, located in the far northeast of Italy, is characterized by extensive areas exposed to hydrogeological risk, including landslides and slope failures, due to its natural geomorphology. The region’s northernmost areas were shaped by glaciations, resulting in numerous steep slopes. Within this context of widespread risk, raising public awareness and ensuring continuous monitoring of territorial changes become crucial.
From a legal perspective, the concept of “risk” is inherently complex to define: it represents both a subjective perception, in sociological terms, and an objective scientific datum derived from the application of predictive models. Therefore, enhancing knowledge of geological hazards in a high-risk territory is an objective that cannot be achieved without the active participation of society. Examples such as northern Friuli Venezia Giulia—where large portions of land are simultaneously subject to geological risk and to phenomena of progressive depopulation or, in some extents, repopulation—constitute formidable laboratories for innovative solutions. This stems from the premise that public policies addressing such phenomena originate from risk perception. Even a geological event occurring in a remote area can generate significant consequences for the population and the region as a whole: if the phenomenon is not acknowledged, though, it becomes irrelevant in public policies.
Territorial characteristics of the case study also demonstrate that traditional models, even when disseminated through new social media, prove inadequate, as they fail to reach the entire population, particularly the most vulnerable and marginalized groups—those most exposed to risk. At the same time, in a phase of contraction of public spending, implementing awareness programs becomes increasingly difficult. Moreover, awareness-raising is often perceived as an onerous task incompatible with the urgency of emergency response. Nevertheless, fostering public awareness generates essential knowledge for determining interventions, especially in disadvantaged areas. This creates a co-generative system of knowledge, awareness, and co-determination of public policies.
Furthermore, reliance on “artificial” models entails the risk of cognitive biases, which frequently distort the perception of phenomena. The growing diversification of the population, as opposed to homogenization of digital tools, thus constitutes the premise for third sector intervention in the proposed case study. third sector can be defined as the sum of a multifaceted set of actors closely connected to communities and territories, capable of identifying needs and perceptions and channeling them toward policy-makers. The proposed case study therefore aims to explore possible hypotheses of public–private partnerships in generating risk awareness in mountain areas characterized by progressive demographic heterogeneity and social phenomena such as aging. The objective is to demonstrate how the co-generation of social value through community collaboration is fundamental for disseminating the perception of geological risk as the primary form of risk response. At the same time, the goal to show that partnerships with third sector entities are essential for creating effective public policies, as they produce irreplaceable knowledge. Such partnerships may take various forms, ranging from the establishment of associations to the implementation of services managed by third sector organizations; the advantages and disadvantages of these different solutions will be examined.
How to cite: Crismani, A. and Biasutti, G.: Public-private partnerships with the third sector on risk awareness and management: Friuli Venezia Giulia case study, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20773, 2026.
In May 1998, the area of the Sarno district in Campania was hit by an exceptional rainfall event, which caused rivers of mud, 161 deaths and numerous injuries.
The tragedy was caused by various factors: the morphology of this territory, rainfall, reduced vegetation cover and the lack of an efficient network of stormwater drainage channels. The vegetation cover of the ground is essential on these slopes, because trees play a decisive role in the stability of the slopes. In those areas, in previous years, large fires had reduced the forest area and therefore stability. Furthermore, the lack of a valid warning system and risk communication contributed to the collective tragedy.
The event marked a regulatory turning point in Italy, leading to the approval of the so-called "Sarno Decree," which introduced the requirement for municipalities to map areas at hydrogeological risk.
The response of the law, in an attempt to stem these catastrophic events, was immediate. However, in relation to vegetation protection, in 2024 must be cited the approval of the Nature Restoration Law, an expression of the new path taken by European environmental law. Its prerequisites appear to be based on urgency, immediacy, and the need to pursue environmental objectives within a certain timeframe and monitor them over time, thus ensuring the survival of living beings in an intact environment.
Indeed, it seems that in recent regulatory interventions we are moving from the concept of sustainable development, which has not proven ambitious enough to achieve environmental objectives, to the concept of ecological integrity.
It is precisely from respect for ecological integrity that the duty to safeguard and restore nature arises, in pursuit of the objectives of ecosystem resilience and integrity. They include climate regulation, carbon dioxide “capture” and coal storage, defense against natural disasters and hydrogeological instability, ensuring biodiversity.
So it is the same nature, precisely thanks to ecosystem services and the resilience they allow, that offers the possibility of reacting in the face of environmental risks.
From this perspective, a process of juridifying ecosystem sustainability was initiated, leading to the approval of the Nature Restoration Law, based on the One Health approach and a new relationship between law and science, which collects data, discusses, and shares knowledge and research findings. In order to pursue the restoration objectives set out in the Regulation, Member States may use traditional command and control tools, i.e. the programming tool, or rely on market instruments.
Finally, European rules on nature restoration today aim to overcome the punitive logic that traditionally accompanied environmental law and which was activated once damage had occurred (ex post reaction), opting instead for a preventive (ex ante) approach of designing interventions for environmental improvement and the care of common goods.
How to cite: Mastrodonato, G.: Environmental risks and ecological integrity: the new european rules on nature restoration, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17987, 2026.
Public procurement plays a central role in shaping preventive strategies for natural risks. This
paper investigates how procurement rules can incorporate social vulnerability considerations into
the allocation of public resources. Focusing on territorial contexts, the study analyses contracts for
infrastructure, monitoring, and maintenance services, assessing their impact on community
resilience. The legal dimension of procurement is examined as a tool for guiding preventive
investments toward socially sensitive outcomes. The contribution argues that socially informed
procurement enhances both legal legitimacy and preventive effectiveness, reinforcing the link
between public spending and collective safety.
Building on this premise, the paper situates public procurement within the broader framework of
risk governance, where prevention is no longer conceived as a purely technical activity but as a
multidimensional policy integrating social, environmental, and institutional factors. In this
perspective, procurement procedures become a strategic lever for anticipating risks, reducing
exposure, and mitigating the differentiated effects of natural hazards on vulnerable populations.
The analysis highlights how award criteria, contract design, and performance requirements can be
calibrated to reflect territorial fragilities, demographic conditions, and socio-economic
inequalities.
Special attention is devoted to the interaction between procurement law and principles such as
proportionality, non-discrimination, and equal treatment, assessing their compatibility with
vulnerability-sensitive approaches. The paper argues that the inclusion of social vulnerability
indicators does not undermine competition or transparency, but rather redefines value for money
in light of preventive objectives and long-term public interest.
Through a legal and functional analysis, the study demonstrates that preventive procurement
contributes to strengthening institutional accountability and to aligning public spending with
constitutional and administrative principles related to safety, solidarity, and sustainable
development. Ultimately, the paper suggests that procurement law can operate as a normative
bridge between disaster prevention policies and social protection goals, fostering resilient
territories and more inclusive forms of public action.
How to cite: Tuccari, F., Saracino, C. M., and Giannini, V.: Social dimensions of public procurement in natural risk preventions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5869, 2026.
Flooding is a growing global hazard, driven by climate change and socio-economic pressures. Effective flood risk management requires proactive engagement from all stakeholders, especially in flood-prone areas. Central to this effort is understanding how humans perceive flood risks and adapt, a challenge complicated by the diverse disciplinary approaches researchers have taken. The field is currently fragmented: different disciplines have developed competing theories, each offering distinct explanations for risk perception and adaptive behaviour, including social vulnerability. While these approaches have generated competing theories, they are usually implemented in different studies across different context, and rarely compared empirically within a single study. As a result, there is a high degree of heterogeneity in how researchers from the different disciplines involved have approached this field. This study addresses this gap by systematically comparing the explanatory power of of the six main theories and frameworks: Expected Utility Theory, Protection Motivation Theory, the Protective Action Decision Model, Social Capital Theory, Hazards-of-Place, and Cultural Theory of Risk. Drawing on a 2022 survey of 5,000 residents in Paris, France, after a series floods, we evaluate which theories best account for variations in risk perception and adaptive actions. Our findings highlight the Protective Action Decision Model and Hazards-of-Place as the best explanations. We argue that future progress lies in integrating such rationalist and constructivist approaches, as these models offer complementary insights that could be integrated to strengthen flood risk management strategies.
How to cite: Rufat, S., Hudson, P., and Enderlin, E.: The Power of Theory: empirically comparing six behavioural frameworks in flood risk perception and adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8244, 2026.
The link between risk perception and disaster preparedness behaviour represents a hot topic of debate in both Psychology and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), as empirical studies report both positive associations and contradictory results. Rather than indicating theoretical weakness, this lack of consensus points to the strong context-dependence of both risk perception and preparedness. These inconsistencies underscore the need for further research that explicitly engages with contextual factors, such as social normative influences or different types of vulnerability.
This study aims to investigate how risk perception and social influences (i.e., subjective norms) shape disaster preparedness behaviour. The framework advances three working hypotheses: that subjective norms, amplified by risk perception, significantly mediate preparedness intentions; that intentions and perceived earthquake likelihood and severity shape these subjective norms; and that social conformity can, in turn, dampen risk perception, reduce preparedness intentions, and reinforce normalcy bias.
This represents an extension of our previous analysis on the action gap in the context of seismic risk perception and preparedness in Bucharest, Romania. Taking the extended Theory of Planned Behavior as a theoretical underpinning, this research further advances existing work by integrating a composite demographic index (based on age, education, and income) and dwelling characteristics with different levels of physical vulnerability. The analysis is based on a two-phase cross-sectional online survey conducted in 2024 and 2025 using a questionnaire that was validated in other hazard contexts.
Key findings indicate that risk perception does not directly influence preparedness intentions or behaviour, but instead shapes subjective norms, which in turn influence intentions. Age moderates these dynamics: among older individuals, subjective norms exert a stronger effect on preparedness intentions, whereas in younger populations, attitudes play a more influential role on subjective norms but not on preparedness intentions. The results also reflect a broader social transition in Romania, from externally imposed collective expectations toward interpersonal, norm-based behaviour, while family-centred collectivist values continue to remain important.
These findings provide an empirical basis for improving earthquake risk communication, the content of early warning systems, disaster management plans, and education programmes. As subjective norms influence preparedness intentions differently across age groups, DRM policies and communications need to be tailored to age-specific behavioural mechanisms to effectively foster preparedness. Such insights are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders in Bucharest: first and second responders implementing interventions during the response and recovery phases, policymakers and decision-makers developing risk-reduction strategies decision-makers, academics designing education curricula, and insurance companies designing insurance policies.
How to cite: Dobre, D., Armas, I., and Albulescu, A.-C.: How does risk perception translate into action? Behavioral insights for seismic disaster preparedness in Bucharest, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7399, 2026.
Natural hazards increasingly expose territorial inequalities, revealing how social vulnerability shapes risk distribution and impact severity. This contribution analyses preventive governance as a legal and social framework aimed at reducing exposure before disasters occur. Particular attention is paid to the role of public spending and contractual instruments in risk mitigation policies, highlighting how procurement choices influence territorial resilience. The paper examines how preventive investments, when guided by vulnerability assessments, can align legal compliance with social effectiveness. By integrating social sciences and public law perspectives, the study argues that prevention-oriented governance enhances accountability, reduces emergency-driven expenditures, and promotes more equitable protection of communities at risk.
In this perspective, preventive governance is not limited to a technical anticipation of hazardous events but operates as a redistributive mechanism capable of correcting structural imbalances among territories. Risk prevention policies, when embedded in ordinary administrative action, become a means to address long-standing disparities in infrastructure quality, access to essential services, and institutional capacity. The paper therefore conceptualizes prevention as a form of anticipatory justice, whereby public authorities are called to intervene before harm materializes, particularly in areas characterized by socio-economic fragility and limited adaptive resources.
From a legal standpoint, the analysis highlights how preventive governance reshapes traditional categories of administrative law. The shift from emergency response to ex ante risk management challenges the exceptional logic that often governs disaster-related interventions and calls for a reconfiguration of planning, budgeting, and procurement procedures. In this framework, public contracts emerge as a strategic lever through which prevention policies are operationalized. The choice of contractual models, award criteria, and performance clauses directly affects the capacity of public investment to generate durable resilience rather than short-term compliance. Emphasis is placed on the use of life-cycle costing, sustainability requirements, and outcome-oriented specifications as tools to integrate risk reduction objectives into procurement practices.
The contribution further examines the financial dimension of prevention, arguing that preventive spending should be understood not merely as a cost, but as a form of investment with measurable social returns. Vulnerability-based allocation of resources allows public authorities to prioritize interventions where marginal benefits are highest in terms of risk reduction and social protection. This approach also supports fiscal sustainability by limiting the escalation of emergency expenditures, which are often characterized by opacity, derogations from ordinary rules, and reduced accountability. By contrast, prevention-oriented investments strengthen transparency and traceability, reinforcing the link between public spending, legal responsibility, and collective outcomes.
How to cite: Canciani, S.: Preventive Governance of Natural Risks: Social Vulnerability and Legal Tools in Territorial Contexts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16371, 2026.
Mountain hazards pose significant threats to communities in ethnic minority regions, where risk perception and preparedness are often influenced by cultural and socio-economic factors. This study examines these aspects in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, China—an area frequently affected by mountain disasters. Using a questionnaire survey (n = 206) and in-depth interviews, the research investigates local residents’ risk perception and preparedness. Stepwise regression analysis reveals that the Yi ethnic group exhibits a relatively lower level of risk perception compared to the Han group, and females show lower risk perception than males. Individuals with higher risk aversion demonstrate stronger self-prevention awareness and personal protective measures, yet are less inclined to participate in mutual support groups. Notably, willingness to form emergency self-governing groups is positively correlated with higher risk perception, underscoring the role of community in shaping preparedness. Two main recommendations emerge: (1) enhance risk perception and preparedness through tailored hazard mitigation education and specialized planning for vulnerable groups; and (2) adopt community-based approaches that leverage local knowledge and active participation to strengthen preparedness through community groups. The findings offer insights applicable to other ethnic minority regions in China.
How to cite: Tan, R., Tan, C., Li, J., Chen, R., Yao, L., Di, B., and Luo, X.: Risk perception and preparedness regarding mountain hazards in an ethnic minority region: Insights from Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, China, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15815, 2026.
Territorial vulnerability is not only a physical condition but also the result of legal and administrative decisions. This abstract examines how public contracts and procurement procedures shape preventive risk policies at the local level. By analysing the social implications of awarding works and services related to natural risk mitigation, the paper highlights the importance of integrating vulnerability indicators into contractual design. Legal tools are presented as key instruments for steering preventive action, ensuring that public spending addresses social fragilities and territorial disparities. The study underscores the need for a preventive legal culture capable of transforming contracts into tools of social protection.
How to cite: De Angelis, L.: Territorial vulnerability and Contractual Choices in Risk Prevention Policies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14318, 2026.
While climate change increases the risk of urban flooding, awareness of this risk does not often lead to adaptation behaviors. Although flood maps and risk information are widely provided, research on the effectiveness of these tools remains limited. It is imperative to elucidate the influence of this information on the adaptive behavioral design of the recipients and the psychological effects. This study examines how differences of the presentation of risk information influence people's behavioral intentions.
For this study, a survey-based experimental study was conducted with 317 adult participants in South Korea. Participants were exposed to one of three designs for presenting climate risk information: (1) Risk-Level Type, showing flood severity; (2) Action-Guidance Type, listing specific steps to take; and (3) Action-Effectiveness Type, explaining how these steps would reduce damage. All information was designed in two parts, with a common urban flood map created by the researcher and a different explanation. Seventeen behaviors and psychological factors, such as perceived threat and self-efficacy, were measured based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and Protection Motivation Theory. Differences in adaptation behavioral intention were analyzed across 17 behaviors by ANOVA, along with the mediating roles of psychological factors such as perceived threat and self-efficacy.
The results show that information framing affects behavioral intentions, but in different ways the across behavior types. The risk-level format increased intentions mainly for individual, investment-oriented actions , while the behavior–efficacy format increased intentions mainly for social and everyday preparedness actions. Mediation analysis indicates that perceived threat plays a key role in shaping behavioural intention, while self-efficacy and perceived behavioural control show limited change after a single exposure to information. Follow-up interviews further identify a preference–intention gap: participants tend to like simple information formats, but stronger behavioural intentions are formed when information clearly explains effectiveness and consequences.
The findings indicate the limitations of hazard-focused risk communication and underscore the importance of behavior-centered information design in disaster risk reduction. By conceptualizing climate risk information not only as a means of risk description but also as a mechanism to promote action, this study makes a significant contribution. The results also suggest pathways for future research that link urban planning–led adaptation measures with citizen behavior, helping ensure that planned adaptation actions are effectively implemented and supported by real-world engagement.
How to cite: Shin, J., Lee, T., Kim, E., and Park, C.: How Climate Risk Information Framing Shapes Individual Intentions for Urban Flood Adaptation: An Experimental Study on Bridging Perception and Action, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19591, 2026.
Preventive action in natural risk management is strongly conditioned by public spending decisions and their legal frameworks. This paper explores how budgetary choices reflect priorities between emergency response and long-term prevention, with significant social consequences for vulnerable territories. In many legal systems, public expenditure continues to be predominantly oriented toward post-disaster intervention, often justified by urgency and political visibility, while preventive investments remain structurally underfinanced and legally fragmented.
The analysis situates preventive policies within the broader context of public finance law, administrative discretion, and procurement regulation, emphasizing how legal constraints and accounting rules shape the capacity of public authorities to plan anticipatory actions. Particular attention is paid to the role of public contracts and service procurement as strategic tools for risk mitigation, infrastructure maintenance, and territorial resilience. Through this lens, prevention is not merely a technical or scientific issue, but a legally mediated choice that reflects institutional priorities and interpretations of the public interest.
The paper highlights the legal obligations of public authorities to ensure efficiency, transparency, and social utility in spending decisions, arguing that these principles acquire specific relevance in the field of natural risk management. Preventive expenditure, when properly framed within procurement law and budgetary discipline, can reconcile cost-effectiveness with long-term social benefits. Conversely, the systematic preference for emergency spending tends to produce distortive effects, including higher overall costs, reduced accountability, and unequal protection for peripheral or economically fragile areas.
The study further examines how preventive policies contribute to social cohesion and institutional trust. Investments in risk reduction, early warning systems, and territorial planning signal a commitment to safeguarding communities before disasters occur, thereby strengthening the relationship between public institutions and local populations. From this perspective, prevention functions as a form of social investment, capable of mitigating not only physical damage but also social vulnerability and administrative conflict.The contribution ultimately emphasizes the need for legal mechanisms and budgetary instruments that support anticipatory investments rather than reactive spending. This includes multi-year financial planning, adaptive procurement models, and regulatory frameworks that integrate scientific risk assessment into administrative decision-making. By rebalancing public spending priorities in favor of prevention, the paper argues, legal systems can enhance resilience, reduce long-term public expenditure, and promote a more equitable and sustainable approach to natural risk governance.
How to cite: Manzetti, V. and Brigante, V.: Public Spending and Prevention: Legal Accountability in Natural Risk Management, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3171, 2026.
Trust between public institutions and communities is essential for effective natural risk prevention, particularly in contexts marked by high exposure to environmental hazards and increasing social sensitivity to public decision-making. This paper analyses how transparency in public spending and public contracting contributes to the social acceptance and long-term sustainability of preventive measures. Focusing on territorial risk management, the study examines the legal and administrative frameworks that govern openness, traceability, and accountability in procurement processes related to prevention, mitigation, and adaptation policies.
Through a legal and institutional analysis, the paper highlights how transparency obligations—such as access to information, justification of choices, and clear allocation of financial resources—play a crucial role in shaping public trust. Particular attention is paid to the preventive phase, where investments often produce benefits that are indirect, delayed, or not immediately visible to affected communities. In this context, the absence of transparency can foster mistrust, resistance, and social conflict, undermining the effectiveness of risk prevention strategies.
The analysis shows that preventive investments, when clearly justified, proportionate, and legally sound, strengthen institutional credibility and enhance cooperative relationships between public authorities and local communities. Transparent procurement procedures not only reduce the risk of corruption and mismanagement but also function as instruments of communication, making public action intelligible and socially legitimate.
The contribution ultimately frames transparency as a preventive tool in itself, capable of reinforcing both social cohesion and legal compliance. By integrating legal guarantees with participatory and informative practices, transparency supports a model of risk governance in which prevention is understood not only as a technical or financial issue, but also as a relational and institutional process grounded in trust.
How to cite: Iacopino, A.: Preventive Public Action and Trust: Legal Transparency in Risk-Related Expenditures, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4150, 2026.
1 University of Salento, Italy
Public procurement plays a central role in shaping preventive strategies for natural risks. This paper investigates how procurement rules can incorporate social vulnerability considerations into the allocation of public resources. Focusing on territorial contexts, the study analyses contracts for infrastructure, monitoring, and maintenance services, assessing their impact on community resilience. The legal dimension of procurement is examined as a tool for guiding preventive investments toward socially sensitive outcomes. The contribution argues that socially informed procurement enhances both legal legitimacy and preventive effectiveness, reinforcing the link between public spending and collective safety.
Building on this premise, the paper situates public procurement within the broader framework of risk governance, where prevention is no longer conceived as a purely technical activity but as a multidimensional policy integrating social, environmental, and institutional factors. In this perspective, procurement procedures become a strategic lever for anticipating risks, reducing exposure, and mitigating the differentiated effects of natural hazards on vulnerable populations. The analysis highlights how award criteria, contract design, and performance requirements can be calibrated to reflect territorial fragilities, demographic conditions, and socio-economic inequalities.
Special attention is devoted to the interaction between procurement law and principles such as proportionality, non-discrimination, and equal treatment, assessing their compatibility with vulnerability-sensitive approaches. The paper argues that the inclusion of social vulnerability indicators does not undermine competition or transparency, but rather redefines value for money in light of preventive objectives and long-term public interest.
Through a legal and functional analysis, the study demonstrates that preventive procurement contributes to strengthening institutional accountability and to aligning public spending with constitutional and administrative principles related to safety, solidarity, and sustainable development. Ultimately, the paper suggests that procurement law can operate as a normative bridge between disaster prevention policies and social protection goals, fostering resilient territories and more inclusive forms of public action.
References
Calabrò M., Di Martino A.; 2025: Exceptions to the Ordinary Rules for Awarding Public Contracts: the Volcanic Risk Paradigm. It. J. Pub. L.
Policy Brief: Legal Frameworks for Effective and Integrated Disaster and Climate Risk Governance
How to cite: Accettura, B., Errico, M. F., and Ciccarese, S.: Social Dimensions of Public Procurement in Natural Risk Prevention, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9298, 2026.
Floods have caused problematic issues for centuries. Due to climate change, floods have become more frequent and intense over the years. Concerns about this natural disaster have turned into awareness. Residents with different backgrounds and perceptions have been reacting differently. More responses have also been implemented in order to minimize the potential casualties, such as strategies, administrative or technical measures. Among them, evacuation is regarded as a vital last-resort measure to protect lives and their property.
The aim of this study is to compile the state-of-the-art of the knowledge on human decision-making in flood emergent scenarios and on the corresponding modeling frameworks. Therefore, this study examined one hundred papers on human decision-making in the evacuation process. Two reference search methods were used to find the relevant topic papers: general searching and the snowball searching method. Using these methodologies, this research organizes the papers into three categories depending on their relation to the topic. This research aims to summarize the reasons why residents eventually choose to evacuate and to categorize the approaches that consider human decision-making within a modeling framework.
The results show that factors such as flood memory, education level, and trust in the government are commonly discussed in the papers. Regarding modeling frameworks, the three main approaches are: a simple mathematical model, System Dynamics (SD), and Agent-Based Model (ABM). Especially, the ABM has been used in many research studies because it can efficiently and effectively simulate flood emergent scenarios, particularly human behaviours. In summary, this paper provides a state-of-the-art review that features structural search methods and organises modeling approaches.
KEYWORDS: risk perception, flood awareness, evacuation process, flood evacuation, human decision-making, modeling framework, System Dynamics, Agent-Based Model
How to cite: Lee, M.-F., Fröhle, P., and Doong, D.-J.: An Overview of Human Decision-making in Flood Emergent Scenarios and Corresponding Modeling Frameworks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7847, 2026.
Volcanic risk management in the Campi Flegrei area is based on a regulatory and operational framework defined at national and regional level aimed at mitigating the effects associated with bradyseismic phenomena and possible eruptive scenarios.
Zoning forms the basis for detailed planning, for the definition of regional accommodation capacities and for the preparation of interregional evacuation plans.
The monitoring system and alert levels entrusted to INGV provide data on seismicity, land deformations, geochemistry and thermal variations. Prime Ministerial Decree 3236/2025 updated the alert level system.
The Civil Protection Department introduced an updated operational strategy, aimed at improving the integration between scientific monitoring and decision-making; strengthening coordination between Campania, Prefectures, and Municipalities; standardizing risk communication procedures for the population and updating reference scenarios based on the evolution of bradyseism. The strategy also includes the adoption of simulation models for evacuation management and infrastructure vulnerability assessment.
The “Campi Flegrei decree” introduces urgent measures to address the effects of bradyseismic earthquakes and to strengthen structural prevention. Among the main measures, funding is provided for building safety measures, actions to strengthen seismic and volcanic monitoring networks, and a general simplification of administrative procedures, necessary to implement the provisions of the regulations and programs.
The set of measures adopted aims to ensure continuous, high-resolution monitoring and to prepare evacuation plans based on scientifically validated scenarios. It also seeks to ensure the operational continuity of essential services through the active and proactive involvement of the community in order to improve the population's resilience through information and training and thus reduce social and territorial vulnerability.
How to cite: Valentini, F. and D'Orsogna, M.: Volcanic risk management, infrastructure monitoring and administrative simplification for the reduction of territorial and social vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3148, 2026.
Posters virtual: Wed, 6 May, 14:00–18:00 | vPoster spot 3
EGU26-15909 | Posters virtual | VPS13
A Structured Framework for Climate-Adaptive Cultural Heritage ManagementWed, 06 May, 14:27–14:30 (CEST) vPoster spot 3
This presentation outlines a multi-faceted framework for addressing climate change adaptation. The methodology is built upon key pillars, including the resilience and integrity of cultural heritage assets, responsible resource use, and effective mitigation of hazard impacts. The success of any adaptation initiative depends on a holistic evaluation that considers not only technical feasibility and cost, but also its broader societal, cultural, community, and economic impacts, including the project's carbon footprint and adherence to principles of the circular economy.
The management of cultural heritage threated by increasing climate change hazards needs a multi-criteria evaluation framework. A structured approach to decision-making ensures that all intervention strategies prioritize conservation, resilience, and long-term sustainability. Criteria and their respective measurement spaces include technical feasibility, cost (which may be incured looking towards the benefit of increasing climate resilience for culturally significant buildings and unbuilt spaces), adherence to regulatory compliance, as well as impact on society and culture. Authenticity, values, and integrity of the heritage building or unbuilt space must be kept. Thus framework emphasizes key climate-specific metrics: hazard impact mitigation, proactive adaptability (such as preventive retrofit), efficient resource use (including materials, time and workforce as they may be depicted in devices for costs calculation), minimizing carbon footprint, and aligning with the circular economy. Actually building retrofit by itself as a reuse strategy illustrates the principles of circular economy itself at its best in the built environment. Such a retrofit project must demonstrate community acceptance (for example by respecting the mental map of landmarks to be kept in case of reconstruction, following Kevin Lynch principles as well as a psychogeograhic parcours), offer educational value, and ensure positive economic impact.
This strategic management model follows a four-level hierarchy, from the definition of the overarching mission and objectives (Level 1), over problem definition, diagnosis, and stakeholders analysis (Level 2) to defining the challenge and identifying opportunities (Level 3). The highest level of decision-making (Level 4) - implementation - involves setting evaluation criteria, criterion weighting, and decision rules to inform the final choice and design of the intervention. The outcome is an action plan comprising operational and communication (a higher level of participation) means, demonstrated in a model project aiming at long-term resilience and effective climate risk management.
An analysis of various climate change-related events (floods: Elbe/East Germany 2013, Passau 2013, Florence 1966, Bosnia Herzegovina 2025, and winter storms: Lothar 1999, and Atlantic storm in 2013) is included, detailing, along with articles and online exhibitions, for each event:
- Structures: Locations and specific areas affected, such as the Elbe and Bosna rivers, the Black Forest, inner-city forests in Karlsruhe, and the Pena Palace park in Sintra.
- Damage: The impacts range from common effects like flooding of streets, transport disruption, and damage to lower levels of buildings (incl. economic impacts and activity disruption) to specific damage like forest destruction and agricultural land saturation from freaic water.
- Intervention:
- Short-term/Emergency: Early warning, sandbags, closing roads, removing fallen trees.
- Long-term: Awareness campaigns, a flood museum (Passau), landscape solutions (river renaturation, changing vegetation to more storm-resilient species in affected forests)
How to cite: Bostenaru Dan, M. and the Climate Adaptation Working Group at ICOMOS Iscarsah: A Structured Framework for Climate-Adaptive Cultural Heritage Management, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15909, 2026.
EGU26-14542 | Posters virtual | VPS13
Development and validation of scales measuring natural resources and local development perceptions in the Danube Delta, a climate-vulnerable ecosystemWed, 06 May, 14:30–14:33 (CEST) vPoster spot 3
Background: The Danube Delta, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and one of Europe's most important wetland ecosystems, faces increasing environmental pressures from climate change, including altered hydrological regimes, flooding patterns, and ecosystem degradation. Effective climate adaptation and nature-based solutions in such regions require not only hazard modeling but also robust tools for assessing how local communities perceive their environment and the governance structures meant to protect it. Understanding these perceptions helps designing risk communication strategies and fostering behavioral preparedness.
Methods: This study presents the development and psychometric validation of two scales measuring (1) perceptions of natural resources and (2) perceptions of local development and quality of life among Danube Delta inhabitants. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 503 residents (76.3% female; M age = 24.8 years). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were employed to establish the factorial structure and validity of both instruments.
Results: Descriptive findings revealed that residents perceive estate-level government engagement in ecosystem conservation as notably low (M = 46/100), significantly lower than local government engagement—a finding with direct implications for implementing top-down nature-based adaptation strategies. The Natural Resources Perception Scale yielded a 6-item, two-factor structure with excellent fit indices (CFI = .97, TLI = .96, RMSEA = .08): Factor 1 captures environmental quality (air, water, soil), while Factor 2 captures biodiversity (fish, birds, animals). The Local Development and Quality of Life Scale retained 12 items across two factors (CFI = .95, TLI = .94, RMSEA = .07): Factor 1 addresses tourism and infrastructure development, while Factor 2 encompasses governance engagement, ecosystem conservation mechanisms, and inhabitants' quality of life. Both scales demonstrated good internal consistency (α = .83 and α = .92, respectively).
Conclusion: These instruments offer researchers and practitioners standardized tools for assessing community perceptions in climate-vulnerable regions. Such assessments can inform the design of locally-relevant risk communication and identify gaps in perceived governance effectiveness. Future applications may include longitudinal tracking of perception changes following climate events or conservation interventions.
How to cite: Avram, E., Iacob, C. I., Ionescu, D., and Armas, I.: Development and validation of scales measuring natural resources and local development perceptions in the Danube Delta, a climate-vulnerable ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14542, 2026.
EGU26-10195 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS13
Warning is not enough: time delays and spatial inequalities in household-scale cyclone evacuation in coastal BangladeshWed, 06 May, 14:33–14:36 (CEST) vPoster spot 3
Early warning systems are fundamental to cyclone risk reduction, yet evacuation outcomes depend on whether warnings trigger timely household action and whether households can physically reach shelters. This study quantifies evacuation thresholds, time-to-action, and mobility constraints using georeferenced survey data from 1,126 households across two cyclone-prone coastal unions in Bangladesh. Using household-level GPS data, we measured distance to the nearest cyclone shelter for each household and analysed evacuation behaviour across spatial distance thresholds.
Early warning message (EWM) coverage was high, with 93.5% of households reporting receipt of warnings, yet only 80.8% evacuated, indicating a persistent warning–action gap. Logistic regression shows that households receiving EWMs had more than twice the odds of evacuation (OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.27–3.55, p < 0.01), although evacuation likelihood varied significantly by distance to shelters, and road conditions. Distance to shelters and road conditions were also significantly associated with evacuation outcomes (p < 0.001).
Time-to-action analysis indicates delayed mobilisation after warnings: only 39.8% of households began preparation within 1 hour, and 9.3% delayed action beyond 6 hours. Distance and road conditions compounded these delays: evacuation times rose sharply beyond 1 km and were significantly longer where roads were reported poor or waterlogged during the cyclone, suggesting that delayed mobilisation increases exposure to peak travel constraints.
Spatial constraints also explain non-evacuation among warned households. Among households (18%) that received warnings but did not evacuate, the dominant barriers were distance from shelters (50.0%), shelter overcrowding and lack of privacy or maternal facilities (48.9%), and lack of transportation (45.7%), alongside caregiving and health-related constraints. Only 2.4% cited lack of knowledge about shelter locations, indicating that non-evacuation reflects spatial and mobility exclusion rather than information failure.
These findings demonstrate that cyclone evacuation is a threshold-based and constrained mobility process, where warnings increase evacuation odds but do not guarantee timely action for households facing greater distance, degraded road conditions, and care burdens. Strengthening anticipatory action therefore requires addressing spatial inequalities in last-mile accessibility, reducing response delays, and improving shelter suitability for households with health and caregiving needs in high-risk coastal settings.
How to cite: Islam, M. R., Rahman, M. H., Ahmed, F. A., and Salehin, Dr. M.: Warning is not enough: time delays and spatial inequalities in household-scale cyclone evacuation in coastal Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10195, 2026.
EGU26-15733 | Posters virtual | VPS13
Linking paleochannel evidence and physical vulnerability to urban flooding: a spatial analysis in Ibarra, EcuadorWed, 06 May, 14:36–14:39 (CEST) vPoster spot 3
Urban flooding is a recurrent hazard in Ibarra city, northern Ecuador, where intense rainfall frequently triggers the overflow of streams draining the slopes of the Imbabura volcano. Recent flood events reported at local and provincial scales highlight the increasing relevance of flood-related hazards in the city (El Universo, 2023; La Hora, 2023). Previous research has demonstrated a strong spatial correspondence between flood occurrence and paleochannel networks and has characterized urban flood hazard using historical records and geospatial analyses (Torres-Ramírez, 2024a; Torres-Ramírez, 2024b). However, the physical vulnerability of neighborhoods located within these flood-prone areas has not yet been systematically evaluated.
This research builds on previous studies by integrating paleochannel geomorphological evidence with general indicators of physical vulnerability to evaluate urban flood risk in Ibarra. Areas susceptible to flooding were identified based on existing interpretations of paleochannel remnants and documented historical flood events. In parallel, information related to urban exposure was compiled from collaborative geospatial sources and analyzed within a GIS environment to explore spatial relationships between flood-prone zones and the built environment. These datasets were then jointly examined to characterize patterns of physical vulnerability across the city.
The results indicate that urban areas located within or near zones influenced by paleochannel landforms tend to present higher levels of flood vulnerability. This pattern is particularly evident in low-lying sectors affected by recent urban growth and limited drainage capacity, where geomorphological conditions favor the concentration of surface flows. By integrating inherited fluvial morphology with present-day urban characteristics, this approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of urban floods in Ibarra. In this way, the study provides relevant information linking paleochannels to support flood analysis and urban planning in rapidly growing Andean cities, based on the case of Ibarra.
References
El Universo. (2023, february ). Lluvias afectan a varios sectores de Ibarra. https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/ecuador/lluvias-ibarra-febrero-2023-nota/
La Hora. (2023, february ). Las calles de Ibarra se llenaron de lodo por inundaciones. https://www.lahora.com.ec/imbaburacarchi/Las-calles-de-Ibarra-se-llenaron-de-lodo-por-inundaciones-20230223-0020.html
Torres-Ramírez, R. (2024, a). Hazard and Risk Assessment of Secondary flows (lahars) in Ibarra city, Imbabura – Ecuador. Université de Genève, Switzerland.
Torres-Ramírez, R. (2024, b). Paleochannels and their correspondence with floods in the 21st century. Case study of Ibarra city, Imbabura, Ecuador., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14423.
How to cite: Mayacela-Salazar, B. and Torres-Ramirez, R.: Linking paleochannel evidence and physical vulnerability to urban flooding: a spatial analysis in Ibarra, Ecuador , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15733, 2026.
