This sub-session focuses on energy system modelling and integrated assessment to understand and optimise interactions within modern energy systems, supporting decisions that improve energy security, economic viability, and minimise environmental impact. It covers system retrofitting and integration of renewables (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and hydrogen), including hydrogen’s role in storage and key applications, and its integration with small-scale generation and advanced grid management. It also addresses social and environmental effects, trade-offs, and co-benefits (communities, jobs, land use, ecological impacts), and strategies for sustainable planning and management that enhance co-benefits and mitigate land-use conflicts.
Sub-session B - Supporting the Just Transition of Coal Regions: From Legacy to Sustainability
This sub-session focuses on scientific, technological, and socio-economic research to support the just transition of coal and lignite regions, ensuring environmental restoration, economic revitalization, and social equity. It covers closure, remediation, and sustainable redevelopment of coal mines and infrastructure, including adaptive reuse, environmental restoration (e.g., water and biodiversity), ground stability and subsidence risk management, and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane, from abandoned and closing mines. It also covers valorisation of mining waste and residues, CCUS in former coal regions, and geothermal systems on repurposed mine sites.
Sub-session C - Pathways to real zero and their policy implications
This sub-session examines pathways to “real zero”, fully eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels across the energy system and other key sectors, rather than relying on CCS or CDR to compensate for continued emissions as in common “net zero” framings. It covers evidence on the technical, financial, and social implications of real-zero pathways, including hard-to-abate sectors (steel, shipping, aviation, fertilizers, chemicals) and options including process change, electrification, fuel switching, efficiency, circularity, and demand reduction. It also addresses residual emissions, costs and permanence risks, land and resource constraints, LTS accounting and reporting, safeguards against over-reliance on CCS/CDR, and equity and just transition considerations.
Orals: Wed, 6 May, 14:00–18:00 | Room 0.51
The Chulai area is situated within the tectonically active longitudinal valley zone, located between the Central Mountain Range and the Coastal Mountain Range in eastern Taiwan. The terrain is steep and undulating, with frequent geological structures and seismic activity. Influenced by multiple active faults and long-term orogenic processes, the subsurface geologic structure is dominated by metamorphic rocks, with widespread development of schist, slate, and related metamorphic rocks, indicating intense tectonic compression and metamorphism. To better constrain the geometry and characteristics of the geothermal reservoir system in this structurally complex setting, this study integrates comprehensive well-logging datasets acquired by Schlumberger from a geothermal exploration well drilled to a depth of 1850 m. The logging program includes gamma ray, spontaneous potential, multi-array resistivity, caliper, deviation, FMI resistivity imaging, dipole sonic, temperature, pressure, and fast-shear azimuth measurements. The well-logging results are synthesized with existing geological, stratigraphic, and active-fault surveys conducted by the Geological Survey and Mining Management Agency (GSMMA) to delineate lithologic boundaries, fracture zones, and potential fluid-flow pathways. This information, integrated with geophysical logging data, is then incorporated into a three-dimensional geothermal reservoir model developed using PetraSim, allowing for the simulation of subsurface temperature distribution under geological conditions characteristic of the Chulai region. Model outputs accurately reproduce the observed downhole temperature gradient, demonstrating the reliability of well–logging–constrained reservoir geometry and supporting the inference that the region exhibits a high geothermal gradient and favorable reservoir properties. These findings confirm that integrated well-logging data provide essential information for accurately characterizing subsurface structures, evaluating geothermal reservoir potential, and guiding future development strategies in one of Taiwan’s most promising geothermal prospects.
How to cite: Chuang, P. Y., Wu, H. Y., Lin, H. H., Chen, T. C., Su, T. C., and Lee, C. A.: Constraining Geothermal Reservoir Geometry and Development Potential Using Integrated Well-Logging Data: A Case Study from the Chulai Area, Taitung, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3708, 2026.
The need to phase out fossil energy has promoted a rapid development of wind power, yet this development may negatively affect biodiversity and encounter resistance among local citizens. To study whether optimal locations for wind power differ when considering biodiversity impacts or social acceptance (in terms of distance to settlements), we used spatial suitability analysis for allocating wind power in Pirkanmaa region in southern Finland. First, we identified areas completely restricted from wind power using constraints based on legislative and authority guidelines. Second, we implemented two suitability analyses based on criteria weighted using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). For biodiversity-based suitability, we used multiple spatial datasets such as bird migration routes, biodiversity value of forests and distance to conservation areas, while acceptance-based suitability was based on distances to residential buildings and second homes. We clustered high-suitability areas using Anselin Local Moran’s I cluster analysis to find spatially contiguous areas for wind power. We compared the results of biodiversity-based and acceptance-based allocation in three scenarios for electricity production for the year 2035: scenario 1 corresponded the current production-consumption ratio in the region, scenario 2 electricity self-sufficiency, and scenario 3 the maximum production capacity. The most suitable areas for wind power were forested areas in the sparsely populated parts of the region. Optimal areas for biodiversity-based and acceptance-based suitability showed only partial overlap, suggesting trade-offs in wind power allocation. The overlap area increased from 0% in scenario 1 to 41% in scenario 3. Highly suitable areas based on both biodiversity and acceptance were not sufficient to cover the production capacity in scenario 2, indicating that reaching electricity self-sufficiency may not be possible without compromising biodiversity or citizen acceptance. The results highlight the importance of consideration of both biodiversity values and citizen acceptance in wind power development, as potential for land use conflicts is likely to increase with growing electricity demand in the future. The proposed method offers a framework to identify areas for wind power development where conflicts between biodiversity values and social acceptance can be minimized.
How to cite: Luukkonen, S., Räsänen, A., Koivula, M., and Tolvanen, A.: Synergies and trade-offs between biodiversity and social acceptance in the spatial allocation of wind power, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11032, 2026.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are critical for mapping mitigation strategies. However, their energy demand projections are often constrained by reliance on deterministic, exogenous methods that often overlook the complexity of demand-side responses to fluctuations in the economy, climate, or the energy system itself. While some process-based IAMs have replaced GDP-linked projections with endogenous cost-optimization or discrete-choice frameworks, they fail to fully couple these demand-side variables with wider system feedbacks, such as human behaviour related dynamics.
This study uses the FRIDA model, an IAM that introduces a comprehensive internal framework for behavioural change, replacing exogenous parameters or assumptions with a structure that simulates decision-making dynamics in the demand for resources and/or end services, leveraging the existing structure for livestock products demand in FRIDA.
The primary contribution of this work is the shift to a fully closed integration of behaviour-driven sectoral energy demand, specifically for transportation demand, reducing reliance on locked-in demand projections, and significantly improving the interconnectedness between economic, climate and energy sections of the model itself.
This implementation expands the existing behavioural change modelling framework in FRIDA, and internalizes energy demand by linking behavioural responses to sector-specific dynamics and systemic feedbacks. The model internalises climate-driven factors, such as the health risks posed by particulate emissions, the composition of the energy mix in production, and the energy carriers in demand, which dynamically drive or constrain energy demand. This structure, demonstrated with the transport sector, can then be replicated across other energy sectors in FRIDA to capture the fundamental dynamics that drive the behaviour determinants of demand.
This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 - https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020 , UID/50019/2025, https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025, UID/PRR2/50019/2025. This work has also received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2.5 – Climate Energy and Mobility programme under grant agreement No. 101081661 through the 'WorldTrans – TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE' project.
How to cite: Mahú, F., Schoenberg, W., K. Rajah, J., Blanz, B., Wells, C., and C. Köberle, A.: An Endogenous Behaviour-Driven Approach for Sectorized Energy Demand in an Integrated Assessment Model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21045, 2026.
Extreme weather events are growing more severe due to climate change. These events impact energy supplies from both renewable and fossil fuel sources. They also affect pathways to carbon neutrality by altering carbon emissions. This study examines how extreme weather shapes China’s energy system and carbon emissions. Using daily carbon emission data from China spanning 1990–2025, combined with multiple future climate scenarios (SSP pathways). A data-driven machine learning approach quantifies the role of extreme temperatures in raising the carbon intensity of the energy system and increasing its dependence on fossil fuels. Our results show that extreme high- and low-temperature events disrupt the energy system. They increase the carbon intensity of energy production, heighten reliance on fossil fuels, and reduce the actual efficiency of renewable energy generation. Simultaneously, we also find that provinces with a larger share of renewable energy tend to have energy systems that are more sensitive to extreme temperatures. Climate simulations indicate that under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, China is projected to achieve carbon neutrality around 2062 with a regional average warming of approximately 2°C, most pronounced in the northwest. Compared to higher-emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), achieving carbon neutrality helps mitigate climate change and slows the intensification of extreme warming across most of China. The study concludes that while China's “dual carbon” goals are essential for long-term climate risk reduction, the ongoing energy transition must seriously address the immediate impacts of extreme weather on renewable energy systems. These findings offer a scientific basis for planning a reliable energy system that supports China’s carbon neutrality objectives.
How to cite: Yu, Y.: Assessment of China's Energy-Carbon Emission System Under Extreme Climate Conditions in the Context of Carbon Neutrality, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21324, 2026.
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels requires a rapid and sustained transition to renewable energy systems, with photovoltaic (PV) solar energy playing a central role due to its scalability and declining costs. However, PV power generation is inherently sensitive to atmospheric conditions such as aerosols, cloud cover, and temperature, which vary spatially and are expected to evolve under climate change. While global PV capacity has expanded rapidly, climate-related impacts on PV energy generation, particularly at the facility level, remain insufficiently quantified. Many existing assessments rely on generalized assumptions, overlooking the heterogeneity of PV deployment and local environmental conditions, which limits their relevance for integrated energy system modelling and planning.
This study combines machine learning and satellite-based observations to improve the representation of PV systems and climate-related performance losses in global-scale assessments. A machine learning model is trained on diverse geospatial datasets to identify PV installations across a range of geographic and land-use contexts, including complex terrains. Facility-level PV data are then integrated with satellite and reanalysis products to quantify the influence of aerosols, cloud variability, and temperature on solar energy generation over the past decade.
Results reveal pronounced regional variability in PV energy losses, driven by differences in atmospheric composition, cloud dynamics, and thermal stress. Elevated aerosol loads are associated with significant reductions in surface solar irradiance, while cloud variability affects both average generation and short-term reliability. Extreme temperatures further reduce PV efficiency in certain regions. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating site-specific climate sensitivities into energy system models to better assess performance, resilience, and trade-offs in renewable energy deployment.
By shifting the focus from installed capacity to climate-related energy losses, this work contributes to integrated assessments of sustainable energy transitions. The approach provides actionable insights for system planning, model improvement, and policy development, supporting more robust and environmentally informed strategies for scaling solar energy within diversified and resilient energy systems.
How to cite: Song, R., Yin, F., Muller, J.-P., Povey, A. C., Swain, B., Huang, C., and Grainger, R. G.: Climate Impacts on Photovoltaic Performance and Implications for the Global Solar Energy Transition, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14977, 2026.
Former lignite mining regions across Europe present not only significant environmental challenges but also unique opportunities for climate-positive land use. These areas are often degraded due to soil compaction, contamination, altered hydrology, and landscape disruption. However, they also offer lands suitable for agricultural reclamation in terms of carbon farming and biomass production. The COFA project (From Coal to Farm) aims to promote evidence-based land management decisions, contributing to the just transition of former lignite-dependent regions. It promotes climate mitigation, renewable energy generation (biomass), and sustainable development.
Our study develops a multi-criteria framework to assess the suitability of reclaimed lignite mining sites for energy crops and carbon farming, integrating multiple environmental factors. Key factors considered include terrain morphology, area, soil quality and degradation type, hydrological conditions, neighbouring land-uses, proximity to biomass power plants and the potential for alternative land uses such as food production, PV installations, or natural succession. The framework aims to identify sites where energy crops and carbon farming can be environmentally viable and socio-economically beneficial. Our research demonstrates how multi-criteria assessments can support the transformation of post mining regions into productive, climate-positive areas. It aligns with the objectives of the European Green Deal and broader sustainable redevelopment goals.
How to cite: Maksymowicz, M., Musałek, M., Merenda, B., Pierzchała, Ł., and Tichá, L.: Energy Crops and Carbon Farming on Reclaimed Lignite Mining Sites: A Multi-Criteria Suitability Assessment for Climate-Positive Land Use as part of COFA Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19212, 2026.
The Just Transition of coal-dependent regions represents one of the most demanding challenges within Europe’s ongoing energy transformation. The progressive phase-out of coal-fired power plants is associated with socio-economic implications, particularly in regions historically reliant on fossil-based energy production. At the same time, the transition must ensure energy security, industrial continuity, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in a rapidly changing energy landscape. Within this context, carbon mitigation strategies that go beyond simple emission reduction are gaining increasing attention. Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) technologies offer a promising pathway by transforming carbon dioxide emissions into valuable products. The LIFE CO2toCH4 project (https://co2toch4.eu/) addresses these challenges by developing and demonstrating an integrated CCU and hybrid energy storage system based on biological methanation, converting captured carbon dioxide and renewable hydrogen into biomethane on-site through a mobile, autonomous unit. This approach contributes to emissions mitigation while enhancing energy system resilience and supporting a more circular use of carbon.
Beyond pilot-scale demonstration, the long-term impact of such technologies critically depends on their replicability and transferability across diverse geographical and industrial contexts. This work presents a structured replication and transferability framework supporting the large-scale deployment of CCU technologies across Europe. Replicability is addressed through the development of a replication roadmap, focusing on the identification of suitable power plant sites across Europe for the deployment of the CO2toCH4 technology. This assessment is based on a structured set of criteria, including the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions, geographical representativeness, and the commitment of installations to future sustainability pathways. The analysis is supported by comprehensive databases and corresponding maps of European non-renewable power plants, as well as a refined spatial representation of the selected priority sites identified as the most suitable candidates for replication. The transferability assessment highlights that the biogas sector emerges as particularly well-suited, as the carbon dioxide fraction of biogas can be further upgraded to methane, increasing biomethane yields and improving overall plant efficiency. Given the widespread deployment of biogas installations across the European Union, this application highlights the significant replication potential of the technology. Techno-economic assessments indicate that, despite relatively high upfront investment costs and uncertainties linked to early-stage deployment, the technology shows economic viability at large scales. Successful implementation, however, depends on supportive policy frameworks, access to targeted funding mechanisms, and regulatory recognition of CCU-derived fuels. Overall, LIFE CO2toCH4 illustrates the potential role of innovative CCU solutions in supporting the Just Transition, by exploring pathways for the utilization of carbon dioxide within emerging circular energy systems.
Acknowledgements
The project “LIFECO2toCH4 - Demonstration of a mobile unit for hybrid energy storage based on carbon dioxide capture and renewable energy sources” (LIFE20 CCM/GR/001642) is co-funded by LIFE, the EU’s financial instrument supporting environmental, nature conservation and climate action projects throughout the EU.
How to cite: Antoniadis, A., Partheniou, E., Konstantinidi, S., Servou, A., and Roumpos, C.: Innovative Carbon Utilization Pathways for Supporting Europe’s Just Transition: Insights from the LIFE CO2toCH4 Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7243, 2026.
Pumped Hydropower Storages (PHS) in former open-pit lignite mines offer significant potential for large-scale energy storage, supporting Europe’s energy transition. The reuse concept draws on proven, efficient technology that synergises economically with the subsequent use of former mines and transport infrastructure, local energy storage needs, and favourable ecological site conditions. While such projects must demonstrate economic and technical feasibility, their environmental compatibility is equally critical. This study presents conclusions of the first comprehensive modelling assessment of the hydrochemical implications associated with PHS operations in these settings. By combining a newly developed generic reaction path modelling framework with geochemical and hydrochemical data from two European lignite mines, we derive general insights into the evolution of pH, sulfate, and iron concentrations over a potential PHS operational period. Heterogeneities in internal mine dump sediments are analysed via reactive transport simulations since these emerge as important source for potential water contamination.
Results show that the direct hydrochemical impact of PHS operation is generally negligible compared to the influence of local geochemical and hydrological conditions. As in conventional mine flooding, the key drivers of hydrochemistry are the extent of pyrite oxidation in mine dump sediments and the availability of acid-neutralising minerals, such as calcite. The degree of acidification and sulfate release depends primarily on oxygen availability in the sediments and the amount of oxidised pyrite. The importance of site-specific analysis is underlined by field data since the water balance of surface run-off and groundwater dominated systems fundamentally differ, affecting the responsiveness of the hydrochemical system. If the flooded open-pit mine includes an internal mine dump, the dump’s internal structure is important for quantifying the timing and quantity of solute outflux as the sediments are the main source of pyrite oxidation products in the system.
In conclusion, a detailed, site-specific analysis of geochemical and hydrochemical conditions is essential for planning PHS projects in former open-pit lignite mines. While the PHS infrastructure itself is unlikely to substantially alter water chemistry in most scenarios, pre-existing site conditions may lead to environmental or economic challenges during operation.
Literature
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Schnepper, T., Kapusta, K., Strugała-Wilczek, A., Roumpos, C., Louloudis, G., Mertiri, E., Pyrgaki, K., Darmosz, J., Orkisz, D., Najgebauer, D., Kowalczyk, D. and Kempka, T. (2025b): Potential hydrochemical impacts of pumped hydropower storage operation in two European coal regions in transition: the Szczerców-Bełchatów mining complex, Poland, and the Kardia Mine, Greece. Environmental Earth Sciences, 84, 9, 247. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-025-12198-0
Schnepper, T., Kühn, M. and Kempka, T. (2025c): Effects of Permeability and Pyrite Distribution Heterogeneity on Pyrite Oxidation in Flooded Lignite Mine Dumps. Water, 17, 21, 3157. DOI: 10.3390/w17213157
How to cite: Schnepper, T., Kühn, M., and Kempka, T.: Hydrogeochemical implications of pumped hydropower storage in former open-pit lignite mines: conclusions of comprehensive modelling studies, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18832, 2026.
Repurposing decommissioned mine shafts into energy storage systems (e.g., Compressed Air Energy Storage or pumped-storage hydroelectric plants) requires verifying their integrity under reversed stress state conditions. Given the lack of analytical solutions in the literature dedicated to assessing rigid linings subjected to high internal pressure, this study addresses this research gap .
The objective was to construct a mathematical model based on the Kirsch solution for elastic media and the modified Coulomb-Mohr criterion, incorporating thermal loads. The model was implemented in the proprietary computational tool PRESS-SHAFT.
Verification of the model on a real-case scenario led to conclusions that are counter-intuitive in light of classical mining geomechanics. It was demonstrated that the critical weak link of the structure subjected to pressures up to 8 MPa (the maximum expected value for such facilities) is not the deepest section, but the near-surface zone (0–80 m) . In this area, due to low lithostatic stresses, there is a risk of stability loss via hydraulic fracturing .
Regarding the deep sections of the shaft, the model confirmed general stability at maximum pressure but identified a potential risk of shear failure under unfavorable conditions during the storage discharge cycle (internal pressure drop). Ultimately, it was shown that with the application of reinforcements in the shallow zone, the shaft adaptation is technically safe.
How to cite: Kołodziej, K., Lutyński, M., and Smolnik, G.: Development of an Analytical Model and Computational Tool for Geomechanical Stability Assessment of Mine Shafts Adapted as Energy Storage Reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20643, 2026.
Europe has mainly focused on large-scale wind and solar projects. However, an abundant renewable energy resource remains untapped within the existing water infrastructure. The continuously flowing energy through the drinking-water pipelines, irrigation canals, and wastewater systems has not been noticed. Yet, tapping into this hidden hydropower is crucial for building a decentralized, carbon-neutral future.
This research assessed Europe’s potential for hidden hydropower through comprehensive technical analyses. For open-channel and natural systems, GIS-based modelling combined with custom Python algorithms mapped and measured the available resource. Within pressurized pipelines, we focused on Pump as Turbine (PaT) technology, demonstrating how to retrofit existing infrastructure for energy recovery.
To complement these large-scale recovery approaches, dedicated hydropower models were developed to estimate the potential of piezoelectric energy harvesting. These models investigate how micro- and nano-hydropower can exploit flow-induced vibrations to supply power for distributed sensor networks. The results show that there is a wealth of untapped power across Europe, underscoring the viability of low-impact and cost-effective micro-hydropower (MHP) technologies. By integrating these energy solutions with smart sensors and real-time monitoring, this research contributes to the development of a more efficient, resilient, and interconnected "energy-water networks" in Europe.
Keywords: Hidden Micro-Hydropower (MHP); Energy Harvesting; GIS-Based Modelling; Water Infrastructure; Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting (PEH), Pump as Turbine (PaT).
How to cite: Emamian Verdi, M., Gezer, D., Karaagac, U., Guðlaugsson, B., and Christian Finger, D.: Assessment of Pan-European Potential for Hidden Micro-Hydropower (MHP) and Energy Harvesting in Water Infrastructure , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22943, 2026.
The European Green Deal requires coal-dependent regions to undergo a rapid yet socially balanced transition toward climate neutrality. In countries such as Greece, Poland, and Germany, the phase-out of lignite has created pressing challenges related to energy security, economic restructuring, and social cohesion. At the same time, these regions host extensive legacy energy infrastructures and strong institutional experience, offering unique opportunities for sustainable redevelopment through decentralised and digitally enabled energy systems.
This paper explores how digitally supported energy communities can act as a key mechanism for supporting the just transition of former coal regions, bridging policy frameworks with advanced digital solutions. Based on the FlexBIT project, this study combines a comparative regulatory analysis of selected EU Member States with a focus on interoperability, data governance, and cybersecurity requirements for energy communities, alongside the design of digital platforms that enable flexibility services, energy sharing, and local energy market participation.
The analysis highlights that while EU legislation, particularly RED II/III, the Electricity Market Directive, the Data Act, and NIS2, provides a strong enabling framework, national implementation gaps and fragmented digital infrastructures remain critical barriers. In Greece, regulatory complexity, uneven digital readiness, and limited access to interoperable platforms constrain the ability of communities to fully exploit local renewable generation, storage, and flexibility potential.
The paper demonstrates how interoperable digital platforms, combining real-time data exchange, AI-based flexibility optimisation, and secure governance models, can repurpose existing energy infrastructures and empower local actors, including municipalities, SMEs, and citizens. By aligning regulatory compliance with digital innovation, energy communities can contribute to grid resilience, energy affordability, and social inclusion, transforming former lignite regions into hubs of clean energy innovation.
Overall, the study positions digitally enabled energy communities as a scalable and replicable pathway for integrating policy objectives, technological solutions, and social equity within the just transition of coal regions in Greece and across Europe.
How to cite: Karatrantou, C., Koukouzas, N., Tyrologou, P., Zizzo, G., Lombardi, P. A., Papadaskalopoulos, D., Sikorski, T., Janik, P., Micallef, A., and Kott, M.: Re-imagining Post-Coal Regions through Digital Energy Communities: Bridging Policy, Interoperability and Just Transition Goals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22020, 2026.
India faces a formidable challenge in balancing its development goals and climate targets. Addressing this requires a holistic understanding of the system, including the interconnections and trade-offs involved in achieving these objectives. While Integrated assessment models (IAMs) aid in such analysis, they under-represent the Global South, lack transparency in model structures and input parameters, over-rely in futuristic technologies such as carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and miss the non-linear feedbacks yielding least-cost optimal pathways which can be misaligned with the regional reality. In this context we developed Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI), a transparent integrated system dynamics simulation model encompassing all economic sectors, the only global south model tailored specifically for these challenges in the Indian context. SAFARI prioritizes Desired Quality of Life (DQoL) goals such as food and water security, housing, healthcare, and universal access to education while explicitly modelling resource feedbacks such availability of land, water and materials. This framework enables the development of sector-by-sector mitigation or “real-zero” scenarios without compromising energy requirements or carbon space necessary for development. Unlike some global IAM scenarios, SAFARI ensures no DQoL goals like food security are compromised in low-carbon futures. SAFARI’s unique approach yields results that complement global integrated assessment models, which are least-cost and GDP-driven and primarily inform IPCC scenarios. This study details SAFARI’s sectoral modeling approach and presents indicative scenarios towards India’s Net zero 2070 target. In Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario emissions continue to rise and peak in 2070. The Long-Term Strategy (LTS) scenario simulates moderate interventions across multiple demand-side sectors and the supply sector including behavioural shifts, increased efficiency and fuel changes. The emissions in LTS scenario peak in 2041 with a post-peak decline. Land use sector offset residuals for the net zero by 2070. Demand-side interventions have the potential to reduce primary energy demand to a large extent alleviating pressure from the power sector to decarbonize, enhancing the feasibility of achieving net zero emissions without heavy reliance on CDR technology. These scenarios highlight SAFARI as a decision-support tool for creating multiple what-if scenarios that aid in better understanding of overall system and the trade-offs and synergies among various sectors.
How to cite: Sundaresan, A., Natarajan, R., Ashok, K., Gangopadhyay, A., Davis, D., Ravishankar, K., and Murthy, I.: SAFARI: Modelling Sustainable Alternative Futures for India's Net-Zero Transition, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9547, 2026.
The 2023 UAE Consensus (COP28) marked a watershed in global climate governance, committing parties for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” Yet the text’s constructive ambiguity leaves the operational content of this commitment uncertain. Four categories of ambiguity emerge: whether transitioning away applies uniformly globally or presupposes differentiated regional responsibilities; whether “net zero energy systems” encompasses industrial processes or only energy supply and demand; whether “mid-century” net zero must be achieved exactly by 2050 or permits some delay; and whether net zero refers to CO2 alone or all GHG. Here we assess whether any plausible interpretation permits policy retrenchment. We benchmark COP28 commitments against IPCC AR6 1.5°C-consistent pathways and develop bespoke scenarios using the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model to stress-test each ambiguity dimension. We find that targets for tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency exceed the median of cost-optimal pathways assessed by the IPCC. Across all tested configurations, reduced fossil fuel output dominates emission reductions (>90%), with carbon capture and storage serving a strictly secondary role (<10%). System boundary definitions prove analytically inconsequential; pollutant and temporal scope affect transition pace but not mechanism. Imposing phaseout constraints on Annex I regions alone dramatically expands feasibility compared with globally uniform mandates, quantifying the enabling effect of differentiated leadership consistent with common but differentiated responsibilities. Even the most lenient interpretations of Article 28 permit no room for backsliding.
How to cite: Al Khourdajie, A., Ju, Y., Meng, M., Ganti, G., Mori, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gidden, M., Joshi, S., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., and Schleussner, C.: No room for backsliding: Assessing the ambition floor of the COP28 agreement, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11113, 2026.
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions has become a dominant framework for climate action, with regions, countries and corporations all pledging to reach net zero by around mid-century. However, some net zero pledges rely heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for continued fossil fuel combustion, rather than eliminating fossil fuels entirely. This approach presents significant risks, as CCS faces fundamental technological and geophysical limitations, while available CDR capacity must be prioritized for temperature reduction rather than enabling continued fossil fuel emissions.
This study introduces the concept of "real zero"—the complete elimination of fossil fuels through replacement with zero-carbon alternatives—and assesses its technical feasibility across five critical sectors: road freight, steel production, international shipping, power generation, and light-duty vehicles. We analyse two complementary lines of evidence: (1) deep decarbonization pathways from global integrated assessment models, and (2) sector-specific bottom-up modelling and industry roadmaps.
Our analysis demonstrates that real zero is achievable in leading regions during the 2040s in many key sectors. The power sector shows the earliest dates of real zero, with multiple IAM frameworks achieving real zero by the late 2030s to early 2040s through solar and wind deployment. For trucking, real zero could be reached as early as 2040 in Europe, driven primarily by battery electric vehicles which offer superior economics and efficiency compared to alternatives. Light-duty vehicles follow a similar trajectory, with electrification enabling real zero by the early 2040s.
Steel production presents greater divergence between our lines of evidence, with the earliest IAM scenarios reaching real zero by 2040 in some regions, though broader literature suggests the 2050s as a more conservative target. A real-zero pathway here relies on expanding secondary steel production via electric arc furnaces and deploying hydrogen-based direct reduction for primary production. International shipping can achieve real zero by 2050, with ammonia emerging as the most viable zero-carbon fuel, complemented by direct electrification for shorter routes.
Beyond these findings, we will outline key parameters for an expanded research agenda on real zero, to help facilitate a community discussion on the analysis required to further interrogate the assumptions behind net zero targets.
How to cite: Grant, N., Khan, Z., Tsekeris, D., Cerny, C., Petroni, M., Getachew, H., and Bhaskar, A.: Real Zero: Assessing the feasibility of a fossil free energy system by mid-century, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19644, 2026.
Managing Overshoot Through Collective Carbon Debt Drawdown
Setu Pelz, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi, Shonali Pachauri, Elina Brutschin, Joeri Rogelj, Volker Krey, Injy Johnstone, Adriano Vinca, Carl F. Schleussner, Jarmo Kikstra, Matthew J. Gidden
The impending breach of the 1.5C limit requires urgent collective action to minimize overshoot magnitude. To date, most Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) experiments treat the principles and norms informing collective action as distinct and typically ex-post considerations, separating, for example, assessments of fairness from the scenario modelling process. Here, we propose and demonstrate a modular framework that endogenizes fairness considerations directly into standard IAM scenario generation processes. We use ‘carbon debt’ to track and minimise regional responsibilities for overshoot corresponding to varied considerations of fairness, and thereby identify a broader solution space for collective high-ambition than previously recognized. We demonstrate that high-responsibility regions can manage this carbon debt through varying combinations of interregional financial transfers and intensified near-term domestic gross emissions reductions. Pathways prioritizing domestic gross reductions lower interregional financial transfer obligations and reduce the reliance on novel carbon dioxide removal in lower-responsibility regions. Conversely, delaying the onset of cooperation increases global energy system investment costs. Ultimately, our results indicate that considerations of fairness are wholly consistent with collective global 1.5°C pathways and can provide a wider solution space informing multilateral deliberations.
How to cite: Pelz, S., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., Pachauri, S., Brutschin, E., Rogelj, J., Krey, V., Johnstone, I., Vinca, A., Schleussner, C., Kikstra, J., and Gidden, M.: Managing Overshoot Through Collective Carbon Debt Drawdown, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16344, 2026.
In many countries the support for “Net Zero” as a political goal is waning. Yet net zero emission targets remain essential in a geophysical sense to slow and ultimately halt future temperature increases. Future emission pathways that are aligned with the Paris Agreement objectives typically reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by the middle of this century. They often go further and reach net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas emissions later this century. Such scenarios comprise global gross emission reductions and carbon dioxide removals, via nature-based and or technological options.
This work examines the changing political context around net zero and the need for a refreshed framing. From a literature review, we have developed a set of principals for generating and evaluating future emission pathways based on their ability to limit the risks from future global warming and limiting the risks of delivering successful emission mitigation. We discuss the necessity to preserve natural carbon sinks, and the need to consider intergenerational, regional and in-country equity and the perception of fairness.
Rapid phaseout of fossil fuel production and use emerges as a robust characteristic of the least risky Paris-Agreement aligned scenarios. We term these Real Zero scenarios and show that in such scenarios global progress can be accelerated with a greater focus on policy, technology and efficiency innovation to drive near term action.
How to cite: Forster, P. M., Pelz, S., and Barley, S.: Exploring Real Zero definitions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20394, 2026.
Balancing climate mitigation with development priorities poses a significant challenge for developing economies where climate action must be pursued alongside economic growth, energy access and tackling poverty. In Pakistan, the challenge gets compounded when national climate commitments rely on an optimistic growth trajectory for projecting baseline assumptions. This in result, risks the accurate assessment of mitigation ambition and policy needs. NDC baseline emissions are anchored to GDP growth of ~9%, while realized growth has averaged closer to ~4% over the last decade. Using MESSAGEix-Pakistan, a national integrated assessment model, we estimate business as usual assumptions to be about 50% lesser. This gap results in inflated projected baseline emissions, making reported mitigation appear larger even when it reflects slower economic activity rather than policy-driven structural change.
To more structurally evaluate different dimensions of economy, we developed three scenario narratives in line with current NDC assumptions and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1,2 & 5). For each, we first develop a current-measures scenario reflecting existing policies and then assess three mitigation benchmarks using fair share principles (ability-to-pay and equal-cumulative-per-capita) and a low-emissions pathway (LE). The range between ability-to-pay (AP) and equal-cumulative-per-capita (ECPC) defines defensible unconditional commitments; the gap between this range and the low-emissions pathway quantifies the case for conditional support.
Across scenarios, the model identifies consistent transition patterns including rapid electrification of buildings sector and phase out of traditional biomass for cooking under all pathways. While transport and industry remain challenging to decarbonize. In industry, coal phases out by 2060 under all emission-reduction scenarios (ECPC, AP, LE) and is replaced by gas and hydrogen. In the power sector, solar becomes the dominant technology by 2060 under AP and LE pathways, with wind as a complementary pillar. More ambitious mitigation pathways require substantially higher investment levels, particularly in the power sector, where achieving a low-emissions pathway entails nearly double the investment compared to equity-based pathways, highlighting the scale of international support needed to enable deeper emissions reductions.
Overall, the analysis demonstrates how integrated assessment modelling can be used to identify credible emissions baselines, quantify the space between feasible, fair, and conditional mitigation pathways, and link climate ambition with development constraints. These insights support the design of climate strategies that balance mitigation goals with development priorities, while anchoring long-term transitions in feasibility, equity, and transparent investment needs.
How to cite: Yaseen, A., Awais, M., and Manzoor, T.: Balancing Climate Mitigation Goals with Development: Insights from Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21598, 2026.
Posters on site: Wed, 6 May, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4
Community mini-grids are small, decentralised power systems that supply electricity to groups of households, local businesses, and community facilities within a village or neighbourhood. They serve as a promising solution to achieve SDG 7 goals in the regions where central grid extension remains uncertain or faces reliability challenges. The real performance of the mini-grids, however, cannot be understood through the physical systems (hardware) alone. These systems evolve within the communities (people), depend on the local institutions (structure), and are shaped by the environmental conditions. This study presents an integrated modelling approach that brings these layers together to understand how the community Solar PV mini-grids, as a 'socio-technical system', behave over time and what supports their long-term operational sustainability.
The approach brings together system dynamics with a probabilistic modelling of uncertainty. System dynamics helps make sense of how everyday elements such as the condition of the physical system, the routine maintenance, the growing demand, the revenue flow, the community satisfaction, and the local institutional practices gradually influence one another. Many of these relationships may be overlooked when seen separately, but they become clearer once the feedbacks over time are mapped together. The probabilistic component adds a way to deal with the uncertainty that surrounds the community engagement, the payment behaviour, the institutional reliability, and the chances of key operational events. This allows the model to explore a range of possible scenarios instead of relying on a single prediction.
The modelling efforts begin with the development of the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) based on the existing literature on mini-grid operations and insights obtained through interactions with the stakeholders. CLDs reflect the ground realities that influence the operations, such as informal load expansion, changes in expectations of service quality, and delays in billing recovery or maintenance. The CLDs are then translated into a stock-flow model that simulates how the system evolves. This holistic approach helps identify which interactions strengthen the system's performance and which ones push it toward unsustainable operations.
Real-world case studies from the mini-grids across India and a few international ones are used to test the approach. This allows the model to explore how different local contexts shape the operational behaviour. The findings show that sustainable operations emerge by balancing many interconnected elements. The scenarios also identify safe operating spaces where operational sustainability can be maintained even under uncertainty. The work offers a structured way to integrate the social and the technical dimensions into one modelling framework. It provides a practical tool for planning, decision-making, and long-term management of the community mini-grids. It also supports a deeper understanding of why some systems sustain the operations while others face dysfunctionality.
The work can be extended in future through a multi-level perspective (MLP) in order to connect the daily operational dynamics with the wider patterns of the socio-technical transition. This will explore how niche-level practices within the community mini-grids interact with the broader regime forces and the landscape pressures, e.g. main grid arrival, and how these interactions shape the long-term energy transitions.
How to cite: Buwa, O., Rao, A. B., and Venkateswaran, J.: Integrated System Dynamics Modelling of the Community Solar PV Mini-grid Operations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1149, 2026.
Rapid growth in energy demand driven by population increase, urbanisation, and economic development, combined with continued dependence on fossil fuels, poses a major challenge for Egypt’s long-term sustainable energy transition. Addressing this challenge requires integrated modelling approaches that jointly assess renewable energy deployment, demand-side transformation, and system-wide decarbonisation strategies. This study develops a national, bottom-up, integrated energy system model for Egypt using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) framework, soft-linked with the NEMO optimisation module, to analyse long-term transition pathways over the period 2017–2070. The model is calibrated to a detailed 2017 base year using national energy balances, sectoral activity drivers, and technology-specific techno-economic parameters. A structured scenario framework is implemented to assess the roles of alternative transition strategies in a transparent and comparable manner. Six scenarios are examined: (1) a Business-as-Usual reference (BAU/REF), (2) a Policy-Aligned Transition reflecting Egypt Vision 2030, Egypt's Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) 2035, Egypt's National Climate Change Strategy 2050 (NCCS 2050) and updated NDC commitments (PET), (3) a Renewable Power Transition focusing on large-scale integration of renewable electricity (RPT), (4) an Efficiency-Driven Transition emphasising demand-ide efficiency and demand moderation (EDT), (5) a Combined Carbon-Neutrality Strategy integrating high renewable penetration with demand-side measures under a long-term emissions constraint (CNS), and (6) a least-cost Net-Zero benchmark derived using NEMO (NZ-OPT). The integrated assessment indicates that neither renewable electricity expansion nor efficiency improvements alone are sufficient to deliver carbon neutrality. Deep system-wide decarbonisation requires their coordinated deployment, supported by accelerated electrification of end-use sectors, enhanced system flexibility, and appropriate investment sequencing. The study provides a consistent modelling framework for assessing sustainable energy transitions in Egypt and offers transferable insights for other rapidly growing emerging economies such as developing countries.
How to cite: Elhaddad, A. and Park, C.: Long-term Energy Demand and Carbon-Neutrality Pathways for Egypt: A LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis (2017–2070), EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6927, 2026.
Agrivoltaic systems have been implemented internationally and have demonstrated significant potential to balance agricultural production and renewable energy development under appropriate regulatory and design. In Taiwan, however, agrivoltaic applications are currently limited to aquaculture–photovoltaic (PV) systems, and ground-mounted agrivoltaics have not yet been permitted, partly due to potential unknown consequences of agrivoltaic systems. In this study, we aimed to assess the influence of agrivoltaics on crop yields, considering the variability in crops’ light requirements and the seasonal crop rotations in Changhua County, Taiwan. Shading factors (SFs), representing the ratio of shaded area to total area, were monthly simulated for an agrivoltaic system designed for planting fruit vegetables, leafy vegetables, and C3 cereals outside the vertical projection area of PV modules to reduce the impact of shading. On the other hand, logistic and hormesis response models were employed to construct the relationships between crop yield and SF, enabling predictions of crop yield variation under a specific PV array configuration. Results of effect analysis indicated that the thresholds of SFs enabling 80% of attainable yields were 61.28% for fruit vegetables, 17.59% for leafy vegetables, and 32.60% for C3 cereals. When the PV array spacing was set to 5 m, SFs ranged from 0.39% to 11.50% over one year, with an average value of 4.27%. Results indicated that, under the crop rotation scenario involving fruit vegetables, leafy vegetables, and C3 cereals, crop yields could still reach 80% of attainable yields. These findings could provide practical insights for the design and planning of agrivoltaic systems in Taiwan and offer a quantitative framework for future policy development and implementation.
How to cite: Lu, T.-H. and Huang, W.-Y.: Integrating the Simulations of Shading Factors and Effect Analysis to Assess the Suitability of Agrivoltaics under a Crop Rotation Scenario in Changhua, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10196, 2026.
Flooding of underground mines after closure often leads to groundwater rebound, land uplift, and sinkhole formation. Such land surface changes create direct risks for infrastructure and for people living in affected areas. In recent years, the number of underground mines being closed has increased, particularly in Europe, which raises the need for efficient techniques that can monitor land surface deformation, improve process understanding in post-mining areas, and support the planning of mitigation and land-management measures.
This study focuses on the Olkusz-Pomorzany zinc-lead underground mining district (southern Poland), closed in 2020, where groundwater pumping stopped in 2021, and since then numerous sinkholes have been reported, together with uplift and local subsidence zones affecting forests, fields, and infrastructure. The area is a challenging case because mining has been conducted since the 13th century using different methods, including shallow and partly undocumented workings, and because the geological setting includes fractured and locally karstified carbonate rocks covered by Quaternary unconsolidated deposits of highly variable thickness.
We present land surface deformation results based on satellite radar interferometry and time-series analysis. We use Sentinel-1 Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PS InSAR) for 2021-2024 to map long-term motion patterns, and short-period SBAS results from Sentinel-1 and SAOCOM (2023) to better capture faster, non-linear changes associated with sinkhole formation in areas where C-band coherence is limited. The displacement time series are analysed in two ways. First, Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is applied to separate the main signals present in the whole dataset, including long- and short-term deformation patterns and acquisition-geometry effects; ICA is then used to map spatial differences in component amplitudes and to highlight zones with changing deformation dynamics. Second, each time series is classified into stable, linear, non-linear (quadratic), bilinear, and discontinuous behaviours, including sensitivity tests of the classification thresholds to provide reliable separation between stable and moving points.
Results are compared with a sinkhole inventory (2021-2024) and with mining layers, including the extent of historical workings, areas of shallow mining, and local geological conditions such as overburden type and thickness. Sinkholes are most often located within zones of strong uplift, associated with groundwater rebound, but they do not occur across all uplifting land surface. Instead, they cluster where the time series show the largest change in deformation rate (acceleration/deceleration or breaks) and where shallow, old mining is reported. These patterns suggest that rebound-driven uplift sets the regional background signal, while local weakening and structural complexity related to legacy workings control where sinkholes occur. The combined ICA and trend-classification approach helps to separate regional-scale rebound from local instabilities and supports targeted hazard management in post-mining landscapes.
How to cite: Guzy, A., Łucka, M., Walczak, S., Zhang, X., and Witkowski, W. T.: Drivers and spatio-temporal characteristics of land movements associated with sinkhole formation in flooded, abandoned mines, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14118, 2026.
Post underground mining activities can trigger sinkholes that pose long-term risks to infrastructure, public safety, and the sustainable redevelopment of former coal and mining regions. Robust, scalable tools for estimating sinkhole geometry are therefore essential for post-mining risk management, land-use planning, and evidence-based remediation strategies. This study investigates the use of supervised machine learning methods to predict key sinkhole size parameters associated with abandoned underground workings. A multi-country European database was compiled, integrating sinkhole inventories with geological and mining attributes, including characteristics of underground excavations and overburden conditions. Several regression algorithms were trained and compared to estimate sinkhole geometry from available predictors, and model performance was evaluated using standard statistical metrics. To support interpretability and practical adoption, feature-importance analyses were performed to identify the most influential factors controlling predicted sinkhole dimensions. The results demonstrate the potential of data-driven modelling to enhance post-mining hazard assessment and to inform prioritization of monitoring, remediation, and safe land reuse, contributing to risk-aware, sustainable transition pathways in regions affected by underground mining.
How to cite: Szmigiel, A.: Machine Learning for post-mining ground stability: predicting sinkhole geometry to support risk management and land reuse, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17362, 2026.
Legacy fly ash, stored in ash ponds and landfills, poses a significant environmental concern due to the dust nuisance caused by its fine particle size, non-cohesive nature, and high susceptibility to atmospheric dispersion. Apart from being ineffective, conventional dust suppression methods, such as water spraying, airborne particle capture, and chemical binders, provide short-lived solutions that are resource- and energy-intensive, lacking long-term sustainability. Enzyme-Induced Calcite Precipitation (EICP) is emerging as a green, durable, and long-term sustainable alternative, which relies on the enzymatic hydrolysis of urea to precipitate calcite minerals. These minerals bind loose, non-cohesive particles together, thereby increasing surface strength while significantly reducing airborne dust particles. However, limited studies have examined the effect of centrifugal purification on plant- derived urease, which influences calcite precipitation and the resulting cementation strength. Urease extracted from plants contains fibers, fatty acids, and other organic impurities that compromise the bonding between the particles of a treated sample. Experimental results indicate that although the cementation solution with unpurified urease yields more calcite precipitation, the associated organic impurities significantly reduce surface strength. In the case of centrifuged-treated urease, the treated samples achieved nearly double the penetration resistance, attributed to enhanced purity. The microstructural attributes confirmed the presence of fibers in samples treated with unpurified urease and illustrated enhanced particle bonding in purified treatments. The pore size distribution characteristics highlight the distinct qualities in terms of pore structure and particle agglomeration between the samples treated with purified and unpurified urease. Overall, the purification process of plant-derived urease was found to be crucial for enhancing EICP performance, thereby improving both the strength and long-term stability of treated fly ash surfaces, thereby mitigating their dust nuisance ability.
How to cite: Nikitha, T. R. and Arnepalli, D. N.: Removal of Organic Impurity in Enzyme for Enhanced Efficacy of Enzyme-Induced Calcite Precipitation in Dust Mitigation Practices, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-622, 2026.
Repurposing post-mining shafts for adiabatic compressed air energy storage (ACAES) requires gas-tight lining of shaft collar. Even where macroscopic cracking is absent, the connected pore network of concrete can sustain pressure driven gas transport, leading to standby losses and reduced round-trip efficiency during long idle periods. This contribution presents an experimental investigation and measurements of candidate lining systems for shaft sealing for the A- CAES concept.
Two representative concrete samples were tested (C20/25 and C40/45), reflecting older and modern shaft linings. Two film forming surface protection systems were evaluated: (i) a thin-layer, waterborne epoxy coating WallCoat T; typical dry film thickness ~0.25 mm), and (ii) a thicker Xolutec membrane (Sikagard M 790; typical dry film thickness ~0.7–0.8 mm) that provides crack bridging capability and broader application tolerance. Specimens (Ø25 mm × 30 mm) were prepared and cured per EN 206 and EN 12390-2, with coating application and quality control aligned to EN 1504-10.
Gas permeability was determined using a steady-state flow method with helium as the measurement medium and Klinkenberg-corrected extrapolation to intrinsic permeability. Uncoated concretes exhibited mean permeabilities of ~4.6×10⁻⁴ mD (C20/25) and ~1.4×10⁻⁴ mD (C40/45). Coatings reduced permeability by 3–4 orders of magnitude: WallCoat T achieved ~3.7×10⁻⁸ mD, while Sikagard M 790 yielded ~5.0×10⁻⁷ mD with higher variability attributable to local coating heterogeneities.
How to cite: Lutyński, M. and Kołodziej, K.: Experimental Investigation of Gas Permeability of Concrete Lining and Membrane for CAES in Repurposed Mine Shafts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14000, 2026.
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources has created an urgent demand for large-scale energy storage. Repurposing unused mining infrastructure for Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (A-CAES) presents a promising solution. However, a critical research gap remains in optimizing the Thermal Energy Storage (TES) component: specifically, the lack of experimental data comparing the thermal efficiency of low-cost, circular economy materials against traditional natural rocks used specifically to store heat.
The primary aim of this study was to design a physical TES model to experimentally evaluate and compare the heat transfer dynamics of two distinct storage media: irregular rocks of pure basalt and regular spherical beds made of a cement-waste mixture.
The research methodology involved the construction of a small scale physical model featuring dual vertical chambers powered by active fan heating systems. One chamber contained the randomly packed basalt, while the other contained arranged in an ordered manner, cement-waste spheres. This setup allowed for a precise, comparative analysis of heat distribution, airflow resistance, and thermal saturation speeds. Data was acquired in real-time using a custom Arduino-based sensor array.
To rigorously analyze the thermal charging cycles, a novel analytical methodology was developed using Matlab. Unlike standard linear approximations, this study implemented an algorithm based on the sigmoid function to model the temperature increment. This approach provided a superior fit to the non-linear thermal saturation data, allowing for more accurate characterization of the bed's performance.
The results provide critical insights into the viability of using mining waste for thermal energy storage by demonstrating the aerodynamic and thermal advantages of ordered bed geometries.
Keywords: A-CAES, Thermal Energy Storage, mining waste, heat transfer sigmoid function
How to cite: Korpak, W., Snarski, O., Lutyński, M., and Kołodziej, K.: Experimental comparative analysis of thermal energy storage beds using sigmoid function approximation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18372, 2026.
The HydroMine project investigates the development of a hydrogen-oriented municipal waste refinery that repurposes legacy mining infrastructure through an integrated gasification and gas separation concept. This contribution presents the results of a 3D thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model developed to simulate the gasification of Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) - produced from municipal solid waste - into a hydrogen-rich synthesis gas under laboratory-scale conditions, and thereby supporting the transition toward scalable reactor designs.
The fully coupled numerical model was developed to simulate fluid flow, heat transfer and chemical reactions within a packed RDF bed. Model calibration and validation were performed using experimental datasets from 3-m and 7-m laboratory reactor tests, covering the temporally dynamic oxidant and steam injection.
The simulations successfully reproduce the key synthesis gas components (CO2, CO, and H2), showing a good calibration results for the 3-m reactor data used for model calibration as well as the validation based on the 7-m reactor data across all injection regimes applied. This confirms that the applied reaction kinetics and thermo-hydraulic-chemical model formulation effectively represent the governing processes of RDF gasification in a packed bed.
The validated numerical model provides a physics-based foundation for further process optimisation and scale-up analyses to guide investigations in the HydroMine project, including commercial-scale reactor configurations, alternative operational strategies and varying compositions of the RDF feedstock. The findings support techno-economic and environmental feasibility as well as life-cycle assessments within the HydroMine project.
The present study has received funding from the EU RFCS-2022 programme under grant agreement No. 101112629 (HydroMine).
How to cite: Otto, C., Kapusta, K., Wiatowski, M., Lejwoda, P., Szyja, M., Korol, J., Wodołażski, A., Basa, W., Pankiewicz-Sperka, M., Koteras, A., Stańczyk, K., Stańczyk, K., and Kempka, T.: Validation of refuse-derived fuel gasification for hydrogen-optimised synthesis gas production by numerical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9680, 2026.
The EU HydroMine project investigates waste valorisation, carbon capture, and the reuse of legacy mine infrastructure to produce hydrogen (targeting 90–99.99% purity) from refuse-derived fuel (RDF). RDF is non-recyclable municipal waste in the sense of circular economy, but currently applied in, i.e., thermal recycling in cement plants or deposited on landfills. Hence, reduction of overall RDF volumes is central to address the main challenges of urban waste management and decarbonisation of energy systems. In this course, HydroMine supports circular economy developments in mining regions in transition and advances sustainable hydrogen production strategies by repurposing existing mining infrastructure for RDF beneficiation. Techno-economic modelling was carried out in the project to quantify the economics of this technology by means of a dedicated, dynamic and modular simulation framework. It employs surrogate models using response functions and tables as well as empirical data correlations developed within the project, and was validated for regional operational scenarios at a Polish study area. For that purpose, the complete process chain from RDF pre-processing through gasification for synthesis gas production and cleaning, hydrogen as well as carbon monoxide and dioxide separation by membrane systems [1] and pressure-swing adsorption (PSA) is taken into account. Further unit stages comprise treatment of tail gases by plasma technologies and final product gas compression. All simulations integrate mass and energy balances with cost calculations at unit scale. Sensitivity analyses were embedded into the workflow to establish a comprehensive assessment of influential parameters. The established models are supporting the project in developing commercially viable waste-to-hydrogen strategies for stakeholders, investors, policymakers, and operators to accelerate the adoption of sustainable hydrogen production in the decarbonising energy transition landscape.
[1] Avruscio, E., Marsico, L., Brunetti, A., Theodorakopoulos, G. V., Karousos, D. S., Kempka, T., ... & Barbieri, G. (2026). Syngas hydrogen upgrading using green-based ultra-microporous carbon hollow fibre membranes. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 198, 152598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.152598.
The present study has received funding from the EU RFCS - 2022, under grant agreement No. 101112629 (HydroMine).
How to cite: Ernst, P., Kempka, T., Kapusta, K., Lejwoda, P., Barbieri, G., Brunetti, A., Tekeli, Ł., Gogol, B., Maseri, F., Godfroid, T., Boutsen, P., and De Weireld, G. and the HydroMine Partners: Techno-economic assessment of hydrogen production from refuse-derived fuel using legacy mining infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9388, 2026.
Decommissioning lignite mines aligns with the EU’s climate goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. A key strategy involves expanding renewable energy, which demands flexible and scalable storage to manage intermittency. Repurposing decommissioned open-pit lignite mines into Pumped Hydropower Storage (PHS) facilities offers a promising solution, enhancing energy security while supporting regional economic transformation. Over the next two decades, numerous EU lignite mines are scheduled for closure between 2038 and 2045, presenting a unique opportunity for sustainable redevelopment.
While prior research has largely focused on conventional reservoirs, the potential of repurposing abandoned mines for PHS remains underexplored. This study fills that gap by evaluating over 140 closed or soon-to-be-closed open-pit lignite mines across the EU. It identifies 50 sites as technically feasible for PHS development, based on topography, hydrology, and grid connectivity. Two operational scenarios were analyzed: short-term load balancing and long-term seasonal storage.
In the load-balancing scenario - optimised for grid stability and peak demand response - the 50 sites could deliver up to 9.6 GW of power capacity and 117 GWh of energy storage. This represents 21% of the EU’s current PHS capacity and would increase total capacity by 45%, significantly boosting grid flexibility. In contrast, the seasonal storage scenario prioritizes long-duration energy storage, yielding 5.4 GW of power (12% of current EU PHS capacity) but a substantial 13 TWh of storage - 4,860% more than existing levels. This vast storage potential could help overcome seasonal mismatches between renewable supply and demand, particularly in solar- and wind-rich regions.
These findings underscore the transformative potential of repurposing lignite mines into PHS facilities. By leveraging existing geological features and infrastructure, such projects can reduce development costs and environmental impact compared to greenfield constructions. Moreover, they support just transition initiatives by revitalizing post-mining regions through clean energy investment, job creation, and industrial diversification. The integration of PHS into the energy system enhances renewable energy utilization, reduces reliance on fossil fuels, and strengthens energy independence - key pillars of the EU Green Deal. As the bloc accelerates its clean energy transition, closed lignite mines emerge as strategic assets for utility-scale storage. With careful planning and policy support, these sites can play a pivotal role in building a resilient, low-carbon energy future, directly contributing to climate targets and long-term energy security across Europe.
References
Ernst, P., Kempka, T. Pumped hydropower storage in closed open-pit lignite mines can provide substantial contributions to the European energy transition. Journal of Sustainable Energy and Assessments, in review.
How to cite: Kempka, T. and Ernst, P.: Repurposing decommissioned lignite mines for pumped hydropower storage: a key enabler of EU renewable integration and climate goals, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17423, 2026.
The reclaiming and rehabilitation of post-mining areas require a comprehensive review of environmental hazards, specifically the residual emission of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from inactive mine shafts. This paper addresses the significant research gap regarding the long-term supervision of these emissions. While the potential for reusing post-mining land is high, the lack of continuous monitoring data of abandoned shafts poses unpredictable risks to both the environment and human safety.
In response to the challenges identified in this overview, a concept of an innovative, autonomous, and wireless measurement system has been developed to verify and monitor gas concentrations at the surface of decommissioned shafts. The system, built on a Raspberry Pi platform, utilizes barometric CH4, and CO2 sensors to collect data. This data is transmitted every 5 minutes via a GSM/GPRS network and stored locally in a data cloud. Subsequent analysis is performed using MATLAB to visualize and evaluate changes in gas concentrations. The entire device is protected from adverse weather conditions with a custom-designed 3D-printed enclosure and silicone insulation. It is also equipped with an emergency power supply.
The system's functionality was successfully confirmed in laboratory tests, where it accurately detected an increased concentration of CO2, validating the feasibility of autonomous detection.
This study bridges the gap between theoretical risk assessment and practical application. It demonstrates that the introduction of continuous, autonomous monitoring systems is not merely a technical upgrade, but a necessary methodological shift crucial for enhancing the safety and success of post-mining reclamation areas.
Keywords: Reclamation, post-mining, methane, carbon dioxide, monitoring, gas emissions
How to cite: Snarski, O., Korpak, W., Kołodziej, K., and Lutyński, M.: Innovative, wireless system for autonomous monitoring of concentration of gases emitted from decommissioned mine shafts, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18509, 2026.
Green hydrogen is pivotal for the global energy transition; however, its environmental footprint extends beyond carbon emissions, particularly concerning water consumption in water-scarce regions. This study presents a cradle-to-gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of green hydrogen production via Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) electrolysis, focusing on the trade-offs between Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Water Scarcity Footprint (WSF).
We modeled three scenarios based on different renewable energy sources (solar PV, wind, and hybrid systems) and water supply methods (freshwater vs. seawater desalination) in Taiwan. The inventory data were analyzed using SimaPro method.
Our results indicate that while solar-driven electrolysis achieves the lowest GWP, it significantly exacerbates regional water stress due to high cooling requirements and panel cleaning, unless coupled with desalination. The study highlights that ignoring the water footprint in hydrogen roadmaps may lead to burden shifting—solving the carbon problem while creating a water crisis. We conclude by proposing site-specific environmental management strategies to optimize the location of hydrogen hubs.
How to cite: Wang, Y.-S., Kuo, N.-W., and Yeh, H. J.: Beyond Decarbonization: A Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of the Water-Energy Nexus in Green Hydrogen Production, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10526, 2026.
Offshore energy islands, serving as integrated marine carbon neutrality platforms that consolidate diverse ocean-based energy sources, are emerging as strategic pivots for safeguarding national energy security and propelling the green, low-carbon transition. Their development follows an evolutionary pathway from "platform-based" to "hub-type" to "network-type", providing a blueprint for the systematic exploitation and deep decarbonization of marine energy resources. This paper employs a case study methodology, conducting in-depth analyses of internationally representative projects such as Norway's Hywind Tampen and Denmark's Bornholm Island, to reveal the inherent logic of offshore energy islands as an effective carbon reduction pathway. We find that their core driver lies in addressing specific energy pain points such as high carbon emissions, while the key to success hinges on the synergy between technological feasibility and business model innovation, jointly constructing an economically sustainable carbon reduction closed-loop. Based on this, the study proposes that energy enterprises should systematically advance from four dimensions: strategic planning, differentiated layout, core technology breakthroughs, and industrial ecosystem development. This aims to accelerate the large-scale development of offshore energy islands in China and contribute a practical and forward-looking Chinese solution to global carbon neutrality efforts.
How to cite: Yukihara, T. and Sun, Q.: Promoting Marine Carbon Neutrality through Offshore Energy Islands , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2448, 2026.
India’s iron and steel industry (IISI) contributes nearly 10% of national GHG emissions, making it one of the most carbon-intensive sector. India being an agrarian economy, makes decarbonization using biochar (charcoal derived from biomass) is a viable option. However, its adoption by steel plants is quite limited due to lack of available studies on the optimal number, placement and capacity of biochar facilities in the near-by regions. Moreover, techno-economic viability of biochar utilization has also not been studied so far. This study bridges these gaps by first developing an integrated GIS-MINLP model that optimizes the location, capacity and logistics of biochar production facilities for a case study of steel plant located in Southern India, IISI-A. Further, it assesses the techno-economic and environmental viability of the proposed supply chain and identifies whether adoption of biochar would be economically beneficial for the plant or not.
Results demonstrate that 48 optimal biochar production plants with a combined capacity of 19.62 MTPA can meet ISI-A’s annual biochar requirement of 5.29 MT. Lifecycle CO2 emissions revealed that when used as a reductant and fuel substitute in steelmaking, biochar achieves up to 53% overall emission reduction, lowering specific emission intensity from 2.55 to 1.19 tCO2/tcs. The levelized cost of biochar is estimated at USD 298 per tonne, while the marginal abatement cost varies from -39 to 33 USD/tCO2 depending on market and policy conditions. Policy interventions such as carbon-linked pricing, PLI incentives for decentralized pyrolysis units, concessional loans, and carbon revenue contracts can promote large-scale biochar adoption and strengthen India’s low-carbon steel competitiveness.
How to cite: Swami, D. and Tikadar, B.: Decarbonizing Indian Iron and Steel Industry: An optimization based framework for India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4092, 2026.
Observation-based constraints on methane mitigation pathways are essential to meet the global 1.5 °C target, especially in large fossil-fuel-dependent economies undergoing rapid structural transition. China is a particularly informative case given its scale, sectoral heterogeneity, and recent emission inflection. While fossil-fuel-related methane emissions in China have declined in recent years, a systematic long-term analysis of national emission trajectories, spatial heterogeneity, and targeted mitigation strategies remains lacking. Here, we develop a transferable Emission–Economy–Ecology–Well-being (E3W) coupled system framework to characterize heterogeneous methane emission trajectories across fossil-fuel and urban systems. China serves as a large-scale testbed to demonstrate the framework under complex, multi-sectoral conditions. Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches, the framework combines 38 years of methane inventories (1986–2023), satellite-derived ecological indicators, and socio-economic datasets, providing a systematic basis for regionally tailored and phased mitigation strategies. Results show that total methane emissions exhibit a downward inflection after 2022, whereas extreme events declined around 2010, revealing asynchronous turning points between mean and extreme emissions. Urban emissions follow a logistic (S-shaped) trajectory, while mining emissions display a skewed near-normal distribution with rapid peaks and prolonged gradual declines. Nighttime light intensity accounts for ~45.7% of urban methane fluxes, while ecological factors, temperature, and precipitation exert spatially heterogeneous regulation. Some gas-rich mining areas reduce emissions below pre-extraction levels within 3–5 years. These findings highlight that regionally tailored mitigation strategies, prioritizing urban systems and accelerating ecological restoration in mining areas, are essential to avoid climate tipping points and support the 1.5 °C target. These findings offer transferable insights for designing real-zero methane pathways in other fossil-fuel-dependent economies, supporting both climate mitigation and sustainable land-use planning.
How to cite: Yan, X., Fu, J., Lin, G., and Jiang, D.: Regionally Differentiated Methane Mitigation Pathways toward the 1.5 °C Target using Large-Scale Socio-Ecological Observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4323, 2026.
As the introduction of Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) gains momentum to address regional imbalances in power supply, the role of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as decentralized energy sources is increasingly emphasized. This study evaluates the social acceptance of SMRs in comparison with traditional distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind power, to identify the relative standing of SMRs in the evolving energy landscape. Utilizing a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), we quantify the preference gap between different energy sources and analyze how providing information on electricity bill benefits under the LMP system serves as a nudge to shift public perception. Furthermore, the study employs the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate the willingness to accept (WTA) for SMR hosting and identifies the specific policy attributes—such as safety enhancement, economic incentives, and regional development—that are most effective in improving acceptance. The findings provide critical insights into the strategic policy interventions required to enhance the viability of SMRs. By identifying which attributes most significantly influence public choice, this research offers a practical framework for policymakers to design effective communication and incentive strategies, ultimately facilitating the integration of SMRs into the future distributed energy grid.
Keywords: Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), Small Modular Reactor (SMR), Distributed Energy Resources, Social Acceptance, Discrete Choice Experiment, Policy Attributes
How to cite: Son, W. and Woo, J.: Analysis of Social Acceptance of SMRs as Distributed Energy Resources under the Prospective Locational Marginal Pricing in Korea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4620, 2026.
As countries pursue net-zero emissions targets, data centers present a paradox: they are essential for digital transformation yet pose significant challenges to decarbonization due to their intensive energy consumption and carbon footprint. In South Korea, where aggressive climate commitments coincide with rapid digitalization, understanding public acceptance of data center infrastructure is critical for sustainable energy transitions.
This study examines social acceptance of data center construction through a nationwide survey (n≈1,000), employing contingent valuation methods (CVM) with discrete choice experiments to estimate residents' willingness-to-accept (WTA) compensation. We focus on risk perception related to environmental and health impacts, particularly invisible risks such as electromagnetic fields, thermal emissions, and their implications for local climate and wellbeing.
Critically, we investigate how waste heat recovery and community benefit-sharing—including district heating systems, public libraries, and recreational facilities—can transform data centers from energy burdens into integrated components of circular energy systems. This aligns with net-zero strategies that emphasize energy efficiency, waste heat utilization, and co-location with urban heating infrastructure.
By analyzing trade-offs between perceived environmental risks and tangible decarbonization benefits, this research provides empirical evidence for designing socially acceptable pathways to integrate digital infrastructure within net-zero energy systems, contributing to both climate mitigation goals and just energy transitions.
How to cite: Yang, Y. and Woo, J.: Public acceptance of data centers in South Korea: Balancing digital Infrastructure expansion with Net-Zero transitions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4629, 2026.
Automotive manufacturing is a multi-trillion-dollar industry that demands significant energy, materials, innovation, and safety, making it challenging to reach “real zero” in this sector. Remanufacturing can cut energy and material needs, but little is known about its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. Here, we compare GHG emissions from aluminum automotive control arms produced via conventional manufacturing and cold spray additive remanufacturing (CSARM). We quantify per-part GHG emissions (kgCO2e/part) in collaboration with lab-scale and industrial CSARM and automotive manufacturers. Canada is a top global producer of aluminum, using Quebec’s predominantly hydro-powered grid. We focus on Ontario, Canada’s auto manufacturing hub. We test key system parameters, like grid intensity, deposition efficiency, powder production processes, facility energy use, and transportation.
Results indicate that choice of manufacturing pathway (conventional vs. CSARM) substantially impacts per-part GHG emissions. CSARM reduces GHG emissions by up to 95% relative to conventional manufacturing. However, the magnitude of this difference depends heavily on process parameters such as grid intensity, deposition efficiency, and aluminum powder production route. Emissions from remanufacturing one control arm range from 0.18-2.3 kg CO2e, as opposed to 3.1-7.9 kg CO2e for conventional manufacturing. We find that component-level remanufacturing can support meaningful real zero oriented industrial decarbonization; however, this relies on low-carbon energy, energy efficient facilities, and improvements in upstream material production.
In this presentation, we present these part-level findings and sensitivity analysis. We further apply it to assess the potential for CSARM of aluminum automotive parts to decarbonize automotive manufacturing in Ontario, using optimized reverse logistics to identify used parts and site remanufacturing facilities.
How to cite: Bindas, S., Saari, R. K., Jahed Motlagh, H., Alumur Alev, S., Afros, S., Marzbanrad, B., and Woo, A.: Re-made in Ontario: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact from cold-spray additive remanufacturing in the auto industry in Ontario, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8246, 2026.
This study addresses the potential role of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) within the Kenyan electricity system pathways by combining high-resolution geospatial analysis for the site suitability and spatially explicit energy system optimisation model (ESOM) to evaluate optimal power system expansions to 2050. The modelling framework further incorporates a Gaussian copula-based Bayesian network to represent uncertainties related to demand and market pricing for net-zero target scenarios.
The study brings together three elements of PHES technologies by quantifying site-specific capital costs based on topology, implementing and optimising their scale and spatial patterns in future power systems, and addressing known uncertainties. Initially, techno-economically viable PHES sites are explored in Kenya by applying geospatial operations and redeveloping existing water bodies. Considering the country’s distinctive geography, climate, land use, and water supply, the potential sites have been assessed within the nexus framework. The results indicate that Kenya offers considerable potential for PHES, with unit capital expenditures ranging from $750/kW to $6000/kW, with many options being comparable to the lower end of global cost ranges. This spatial heterogeneity of PHES potential motivates a spatially explicit dispatch and expansion analysis to identify which sites are cost-effective, where, and at what scale in future electrification pathways.
For this purpose, the study introduces a spatially explicit ESOM, termed PyPSA-KE, based on the open-source PyPSA-Earth framework. The model is calibrated using Kenya-specific data and applied to investigate optimal power system expansion pathways to 2050 under carbon tax-based net-zero scenarios. Closed-loop PHES sites identified in the Global Atlas of PHES (Stocks et al., 2021) are represented explicitly, with site-specific capital costs and grid-connection distances derived from local topography. Results indicate a substantial potential for PHES deployment across Kenya for both daily and multi-day storage, complemented by battery storage to ensure peak demand is met. The absolute amounts of storage required in 2050 are highly sensitive to uncertain exogenous socio-techno-economic factors, most notably future electricity demand, battery cost trajectories, and the stringency of carbon taxation. Although the ESOM is deterministic, explicitly accounting for such uncertainty is essential, in line with a growing shift towards global sensitivity analysis in the literature (Yue et al., 2018). To this end, the study proposes a Bayesian framework enabling probabilistic characterisation and rapid exploration of long-term scenarios. A Gaussian-copula-based Bayesian network is constructed using Monte Carlo samples of PyPSA-KE outputs, generated by imposing probability distributions on key uncertain inputs. Despite limitations associated with network structure and the use of bivariate Gaussian copulas, the approach demonstrates strong potential to extract robust insights and inform policy discussions on long-term power system planning under deep epistemic uncertainty.
Stocks, M., Stocks, R., Lu, B., Cheng, C., & Blakers, A. (2021). Global Atlas of Closed-Loop Pumped Hydro Energy Storage. Joule, 5(1), 270–284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.11.015
Yue, X., Pye, S., DeCarolis, J., Li, F. G. N., Rogan, F., & Gallachóir, B. Ó. (2018). A review of approaches to uncertainty assessment in energy system optimization models. Energy Strategy Reviews, 21, 204–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.06.003
How to cite: Sadak, D., Karamountzos, P., Mares-Nasarre, P., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: A Spatially Explicit Planning of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage in Kenya’s Long-Term Decarbonisation Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12682, 2026.
