Analogues and Dynamical Systems Indices: A Unified Approach for Predictability, Attribution, and Impacts of Climate Extremes

Co-organized by CL6/HS11/NP9

Convener: Meriem KroumaECSECS | Co-conveners: Mireia GinestaECSECS, Emma HolmbergECSECS, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda

The study and attribution of extreme weather and climate events has increasingly moved toward process-based approaches that explicitly account for the atmospheric dynamics leading to an event. Indices issued from dynamical systems theory enable one such approach. These indices rely on identifying past atmospheric situations with similar dynamics -- so called analogues. They quantify the similarity of large-scale circulation patterns between extreme events, informing on the extremes' predictability and on how the occurrence and characteristics of the events change in time.
This short course will introduce the theory and calculation of analogue-based dynamical systems indices, and show how they can be applied to study the predictability of extreme events, and attribute their occurrence to climate change (as implemented in the ClimatMeter platform). We will further explore the potential for attribution of climate impacts impacts. The course will combine a methodological overview with real-world applications.