Extreme space weather events, ranging from X10-class solar flares to Kp9 geomagnetic storms, pose a significant risk to advanced space- and ground-based infrastructure, and have a strong impact on satellite operations, aviation navigation, power grids, and pipelines. Once-in-a-century or even once-in-a-solar-cycle events are a significant hurdle for our operational and pre-operational tools and frameworks. In July 2012, the Earth narrowly avoided a solar superstorm that modelling suggests could have been similar to the 1859 Carrington event. Other notable events for which there is abundant monitoring and records that are useful for assessing our forecasting frameworks include those in October 2003, on St Patrick's Day in 2015, in September 2017, and more recently in May and October 2024. Prior to the introduction of regular monitoring, historical records and space climatology studies have also documented exceptional events, such as those in January 1770, or prior.
This session will examine our current state of scientific knowledge and forecasting capability for extreme scenarios, exploring the state of the art in understanding their physical mechanisms as well as in the application of physics-based and machine learning models. We will also identify key knowledge gaps hindering our ability to predict and mitigate the risks posed by the most severe geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Through a moderated discussion, we will address the following questions:
• How reliable are our current space weather monitoring and forecasting tools at predicting and tracking severe events, and what are their main limitations?
• What additional observations, scientific knowledge and modelling efforts are needed to improve surveillance and forecasting capabilities for extreme events?
• What are the worst-case scenarios and what impact would they have on various systems?
• What concrete mitigation plans can be developed to enhance the resilience of our infrastructure against future severe risks?
• How can we build bridges between the scientific community and those responsible for affected infrastructure to ensure the timely provision of necessary information?
We welcome all submissions focused on extreme space weather conditions and related worst-case scenario impacts in the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. We encourage submissions from a diverse group within the national organization, academic community, and private sector.