Land surface processes play a crucial role in shaping the Earth's climate and in modulating hydrometeorological variability as well as the occurrence of compound extreme events. As a core component of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), their representation critically influences and enables climate feedbacks essential for predictions and climate-change projections. However, land hydrology and its interactions with other components of the Earth system (e.g. biosphere, biogeochemical cycles, anthropogenic disturbances/practices) remain poorly represented in most ESMs, potentially inducing erroneous responses to anthropogenic climate forcings at global to local scales and leading to misrepresentations of the occurrence, intensity and sequencing of droughts, floods and their compound manifestations. For instance, ESMs do not represent the observed decline of groundwater levels in water-limited regions, threatening the subsistence of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and exacerbating persistence and impact of droughts, thereby increasing the risk of ecosystem shifts and to progressive desertification.
This session is therefore open to observational and modeling contributions advancing the understanding and representation of hydrological, biophysical and biogeochemical processes and couplings in land surface models, including the simulation and predictability of compound extreme events across time scales. Particular attention will be dedicated to the representation of the interaction between hydrological processes and the biosphere (including the human component) to properly characterize the carbon-water nexus, human-water feedbacks, and the effects of land-based mitigation/adaptation options to climate change.
The session also welcomes contributions on high-resolution ESMs, advanced observation systems, and emerging data-driven and Artificial Intelligence approaches that enhance early warning capabilities and support resilience to compound hydrometeorological hazards.
The overarching aim of this session is to provide an open and collaborative space to bridge disciplinary gaps within and across communities involved in land surface modeling, and to strengthen links between land surface process representation and downstream applications in climate prediction and climate-change studies, with particular relevance for compound extreme events and transitions, while highlighting priorities and emerging opportunities for the development of next-generation ESMs.
Gonzalo Miguez Macho