Growing evidence indicates a decrease in the carbon sink strength and storage capacity of forest ecosystems in recent years. Furthermore, forest management strategies primarily optimized for climate change mitigate might, in certain contexts, conflict with biodiversity conservation objectives, and vice versa. Thus, identifying pathways for sustainable and resilient forestry is a multi-disciplinary and multi-actor task and needs an understanding of the biophysical, social, ecological, economic, and governance implications. These issues are central to the European Green Deal Biodiversity and Ecosystem Health strategy and are also at the heart of the EU H2020 CLIMB-FOREST (2022-2027) project (https://www.climbforest.eu/ ).
In this session, we will explore how to design and implement climate- and biodiversity-smart forestry, aiming for long-term sustainability and multifunctionality. We are covering the following topics
• management history, biomass production, carbon gains and losses
• biogeochemical and biophysical properties of forest stands
• interactions with atmospheric chemistry, e.g. aerosols and BVOC production
• bioeconomic aspects and wood production
• scenarios for alternative future forest management
• Modeling past and future climate impacts on forests and the delivery of different ecosystem services under different mitigation measures
• Insights, tools, and practices enabling the successful implementation of mitigation measures and enhancement of social-ecological systems’ resilience
• Governance or agent-based models to improve the societal and environmental benefits of mitigation measures
• The implications of forest-based mitigation measures on enhancing forest resilience against major disturbances and extreme events
• Methods and tools for decision and adaptation support in the forestry, considering multiple stakeholders and multifunctional perspectives
Orals: Mon, 4 May, 14:00–15:45 | Room 2.23
Multi-functional forestry is a central objective of recent European policy frameworks, such as the New EU Forest Strategy for 2030 and the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. These strategies, together with the LULUCF regulation, aim to ensure the continued provision of multiple forest ecosystem services under climate change, such as timber production, biodiversity conservation, and climate regulation.
These expectations arise alongside increasing demands for wood products, leading to partially conflicting objectives. The uncertainty of future climate changes further complicates the development of multi-functional forestry strategies.
Here, we demonstrate our recent work addressing these issues. We used process-based ecosystem modeling combined with robust multi-criteria optimization to derive forest management portfolios for climate-smart forestry under climate uncertainty. Using simplified management options and simulations across four RCPs, we show that regionally optimized portfolios can support the provision of multiple ecosystem services across a wide range of future climates. In particular, higher shares of broad-leaved and unmanaged forests were beneficial for biodiversity and other regulating services, but entailed clear trade-offs with timber provision.
We further examined the effects of additional constraints, such as maintaining stable harvest levels and enforcing strict protection on 10% of the land area. These constraints substantially reduced management flexibility and made inter-regional compensation between wood production and forest protection necessary, often at the expense of multi-functionality within regions. Overall, our results highlight the difficulty of fulfilling all demands simultaneously under climate uncertainty. Nonetheless, they illustrate how the methodology can be helpful to derive forward-looking climate-smart strategies.
How to cite: Gregor, K., Reyer, C., Meyer, B., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lindeskog, M., and Rammig, A.: Deriving climate-smart forestry strategies under uncertain future climate, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7600, 2026.
European forests face increasing climate extremes and disturbance pressures while being expected to deliver climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and multiple ecosystem services. Simultaneously, the European Union’s (EU) Green Deal aims at climate neutrality, with a growing number of EU forest-related policy targets spanning multiple sectors and including both overlapping and competing objectives. This creates uncertainty about how policy priorities translate into forest management and land-use outcomes across the EU. We thus analyse how these EU forest-related policy target portfolios, together with the institutional processes that implement them, shape climate, biodiversity, and ecosystem-service outcomes in European forests, and identify robust policy pathways under uncertain climate and socio-economic futures.
We develop and apply InsNet-CRAFTY, which couples a multi–large language model (LLM) institutional network to the agent-based land-use model CRAFTY-EU. The framework represents key features of policy processes, including bounded rationality, incremental decision-making, and unstructured information exchange, while capturing competing mandates within polycentric governance. We operationalise four interacting institutional agents representing core ministerial portfolios: Agriculture (land-use and production), Environment (biodiversity and conservation), Bioeconomy (forest-based bioeconomy innovations), and Climate (mitigation and adaptation). These agents operate in parallel, negotiate their priorities, and adjust policy instrument mixes under budget and feasibility constraints. To reflect heterogeneity across Europe, we parameterise member-state differences in institutional influence and policy prioritisation based on country-specific forest policy orientations regarding utilisation and conservation.
Institutional agents translate targets into policy instrument choices and calibrations, explicitly accounting for synergies and conflicts among instruments. We simulate policy pathways at short- (2030), medium- (2050), and long-term (2100) horizons, and evaluate outcomes using indicators of forest area and types, management strategies, carbon sequestration, biodiversity impacts, and a broad set of ecosystem services. Pathways are then stress-tested across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios to identify when interventions trigger unintended trade-offs, or require adaptation to avoid maladaptation. The results provide a comparative assessment of pathway robustness, highlighting leverage points in instrument design, regional sensitivities, and policy mixes that maximise co-benefits for climate, biodiversity, and forest resilience under deep uncertainty.
How to cite: Raymond, J., Byari, M., Galicia Cruz, A., Lieberherr, E., Ohmura, T., Zeng, Y., and Rounsevell, M.: Stress‑Testing Forest Policy Pathways for Climate and Biodiversity outcomes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-8020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8020, 2026.
Forests are providing a wide range of ecosystem services, including timber production, sequestration and storage of carbon. The need to balance timber production goals against the maintenance of the other ecosystem services requires careful selection of forest management strategies. In addition, the management needs to ensure forest resilience, because extreme storms, prolonged droughts, pest outbreaks and wildfires may increasingly affect forest productivity and stability across Europe, challenging the suitability of traditional management approaches.
However, forests are multifunctional socio-ecological systems and management decisions are not solely based on science. They need to consider preferences, values and politics of diverse actors such as public administrations, forest owners and managers, and environmental organizations. In the European research project ClimbForest, WP5, we have sought to achieve this by involving stakeholders in five categories: forest owners, forest industry, forest biodiversity, forest protection recreation and public forest officers. To capture the ranges in biogeography, forest types, management traditions, socio-ecological diversity and as well climate-related challenges such as drought, wildfire, storm and pests in Europe, we established such groups over a north–south and inland-coast gradients by having one group from each of the countries Spain, France, Czechia, Poland, and Norway.
We have activated the stakeholders by structured questionnaires and in situ field visits. The stakeholders have travelled together with the WP5 researchers visiting predefined forest sites in their five countries. In each site, local foresters and other experts familiar with local conditions gave an overview of local forest conditions. In each site, we activated the stakeholders by asking them to come up with their recommended forest management. This was first done within each stakeholder category, followed by plenary discussions where the groups might want to adjust their recommendations and possibly end up with consensus solutions across groups. The recommendations should include the main options: tree species and forest management type, i.e. rotation or continuous cover (CCF). If they recommend rotation forestry, they needed to specify initial stand density (after pre-commercial thinning), number, type and strength of thinning, final stand density and type of final felling (clear cut, retention harvesting, seed tree harvesting or shelterwood logging). If they recommend CCF, they should specify frequency (years) and specification of logging strength. For this work we provided them with paper forms containing these options, i.e. the “forest management toolbox”.
We supplement the recommendations on forest management from the stakeholder by running simulation of long-term forest development. This includes forest growth and the probability of certain forest damage. The models are process-based, empirical forest models, i.e. mainly the LPJ-Guess model followed by calculation of certain ecosystem service indicators. This provides understanding of the performance of the recommendations about a range of ecosystem services and as well the vulnerability towards major forest disturbance, and context-specific trade-offs between productivity, conservation, and risk reduction. When these simulations are completed, we will gather the stakeholders and give them the option to reassess and possibly change their recommendations.
Overall, our work combines participatory approaches with model-based simulations to identify future forest management.
How to cite: Solberg, S., de Guerry, B., Gardiner, B., Krejza, J., Morcello, L., Socha, J., Tymińska-Czabańska, L., Vilagrosa, A., and Morgane, M.: Involving stakeholders in forest management decisions, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21208, 2026.
European forests deliver diverse ecosystem services, yet increasing human pressures and intensified wood harvest to meet climate and bioeconomy goals risk undermining their multifunctionality. Within the EU-funded ForestNavigator project, we examine how citizens across five EU countries (Czech Republic, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Sweden) perceive trade-offs among forest ecosystem services , with particular attention to cultural and recreational values. These services are typically undervalued due to the absence of market prices and remain underrepresented in analyses, despite EU forest policy objectives that explicitly call for a more balanced consideration of multiple services within sustainable forest management.
We implemented a harmonized multi-country choice experiment (CE) survey with ~5,700 representative respondents, capturing willingness-to-pay (WTP) for forest management scenarios varying in wood harvest, mitigation potentials, protected areas, landscape amenities, and recreational infrastructure.
Key findings on more traditional ecosystem services reveal strong public support for climate mitigation via forest management, with greater WTP for a target more stringent than the EU2030 (€39–€64). Intensive harvesting - especially at 100% of forest regrowth - is broadly disapproved, even at 75% levels. Ambitious conservation, notably strict forest protection at 30%, receives substantial backing (up to +€28 in Ireland and +€26 in Sweden).
Focusing on cultural ecosystem services, nature-oriented recreation links with high value across countries (+€24 to +€29), contrasting with weaker and more variable support for resource-intensive recreation. Preferences for landscape diversity are nuanced; medium diversity often ranks higher than high diversity, with significant appreciation for high diversity in Ireland and the Czech Republic.
WTP varies significantly across demographic groups, with younger, more educated, employed, and higher-income individuals living near forests or urban areas showing higher values. These insights underscore the need for targeted policy communication and investment strategies in forest management.
Our results contribute to integrating cultural ecosystem service values into policy frameworks, integrated and land-use models, enhancing recognition of non-market forest services and informing sustainable forest management that balances climate goals, conservation, and public preferences.
How to cite: Michetti, M. and Eboli, F.: Assessing Preferences for Forest Ecosystem Services Across Europe: Emphasizing Cultural and Recreational Values, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4060, 2026.
Strategic selection and precise matching of climate-resilient tree species are pivotal for climate-adaptive forestry in terms of forest-based climate change mitigation and adaptation to maximize its full potential. Current forestation plans often fail to account for environmental shifts, particularly at individual species resolution, jeopardizing suboptimal carbon sequestration over the long term. Here we developed a climate-adaptive optimization framework to guide tree species selection and planting in China based on projections of species-specific habitat viability and range redistribution under future climate scenarios. Leveraging over 200,000 tree samples from National Forest Inventories spanning 1999-2018, we quantified habitat viability declines of 12.1-42.9% by 2060 for currently dominant plantation species due to climate threats. Through optimized species-site matching and strategic timber harvesting at peak carbon uptake, we identified 43.2 million hectares sustaining climate-resilient forestation during 2025-2060 - planting approximately 46 billion climate-adapted trees with a total sequestration potential of 3,822.6 Tg of carbon, representing a 28.7% increase compared to unmanaged scenarios. Our study underscores the critical role of optimized adaptive forestation under future climate change scenarios in ensuring carbon mitigation while delivering technical guidance for climate-adaptive forest management plans supporting China’s net-zero aligned goals.
How to cite: Zhang, M., Liu, S., Luo, X., Keenan, T. F., Fu, L., Xiao, C., Zhang, Y., and Gong, P.: Incorporating site suitability and carbon sequestration of tree species into China’s climate-adaptive forestation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2897, 2026.
Afforestation and reforestation (A&R) are central components of current climate mitigation strategies and hold substantial potential for supplying biomass. However, large uncertainties remain regarding their actual mitigation potential, with considerable variation across global estimates, partly due to methodological differences. This study refines existing estimates of A&R potential by integrating temporal dynamics, climate change impacts, and land-use competition within a deliberately conservative framework.
We combine climate-sensitive forest biome projections with current land-use cover data to assess global A&R potentials under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) up to 2080 at a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km. To account for land-use competition, A&R is restricted to non-managed pastureland. Potential biomass production and associated carbon sequestration are estimated using region-specific growth data in accordance with IPCC guidelines.
Across all RCPs, we identify 731 million hectares globally as suitable for A&R through 2080. Relative to the historical baseline, climate change scenarios lead to a a net reduction of up to 24 million hectares of potential A&R area. While global potentials decline, regional patterns diverge markedly: boreal regions experience an increase in suitable area (+34 million hectares), whereas tropical and temperate regions exhibit substantial reductions (–33 and -18 million hectares, respectively). The A&R potentials presented here are intentionally conservative with respect to climate uncertainty, land-use competition, and long-term viability. Integrating these estimates with complementary scientific assessments is essential to underpin the feasibility of current climate policy targets and to support robust projections of biomass availability for scaling up the bioeconomy.
If implemented in accordance with local ecological conditions, the identified A&R potentials can inform policy responses to climate-related risks and may contribute to climate mitigation while supporting a biomass supply as a substitute for fossil-based products. However, successful implementation requires careful consideration of resource constraints (e.g., water availability) and future abiotic and biotic risks.
How to cite: Honkomp, T. and Tandetzki, J.: Reassessing Global Afforestation and Reforestation Potentials under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10380, 2026.
Although the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) has been extensively studied, the mechanisms by which species mixing ratios in mixed forests regulate community productivity and tree responses to climatic stress through interspecific interactions remain poorly understood. In this study, we systematically investigated how different species mixing ratios influence ecosystem functioning in temperate Pine–Oak mixed forests.
First, using dendrochronological methods, we assessed tree climate sensitivity as well as resistance (Rt), recovery (Rc), and resilience (Rs) under both short-term and long-term drought conditions. We found that species mixing does not universally reduce climate sensitivity or enhance drought resistance; rather, only moderate mixing ratios optimize drought resistance and recovery, especially for oak. In contrast, pine shows reduced drought resistance when the proportion of oak is high, suggesting that the biodiversity effect may be asymmetric among different species.
In addition, from the perspective of spatial and phenological niche differentiation in resource use, we revealed the mechanisms by which mixing ratios regulate community productivity across multiple temporal scales (yearly, monthly, and daily). Tree-ring width served as a proxy for productivity, providing five-year average annual values, while microcore techniques captured monthly and daily dynamics of growth. Monthly changes in leaf area index (LAI) and community-weighted mean photosynthetic capacity (CMW-Pn) were monitored, and stable isotope tracers, hydraulic traits, and soil nutrients were used to evaluate water and nutrient niches. Our results demonstrate that complementary use of light resources among different tree species is the primary mechanism driving increased productivity in mixed forests, exerting a much stronger influence than water or nutrient factors. Specifically, the key determinant of productivity lies in community-level light interception capacity rather than photosynthetic capacity alone. In addition, phenological niche differentiation plays a crucial role in enhancing productivity. Through daily-scale growth monitoring, we quantified this mechanism for the first time: asynchronous growth phenology among species substantially reduced interspecific competition and strengthened temporal resource complementarity, ultimately increasing overall community productivity by approximately 15%.
These findings provide new mechanistic insights into enhancing and sustaining productivity in mixed forests under climate change.
How to cite: Wang, X.: Mechanisms of mixed forests enhancing community productivity and their effects on climate response, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-686, 2026.
Boreal forests are a major source of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which undergo atmospheric oxidation and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and cloud condensation nuclei. Clear-cutting, a common forest management practice involving the uniform removal of most or all trees within a designated area, can substantially alter biosphere–atmosphere interactions. In Sweden, approximately 2% of the managed forest area is harvested annually.
Here we present results from continuous observations conducted from 2020 to the present at the Norunda ACTRIS and ICOS research station in the Swedish boreal forest, where a clear-cutting event occurred in 2022 surrounding the main measurement tower. This event provided a unique opportunity to investigate the short- and long-term impacts of forest clear-cutting on atmospheric composition.
Our results show that clear-cutting significantly altered BVOC concentrations. While enhanced emissions of terpenes were expected, we also observed unexpectedly elevated concentrations of aromatic compounds, indicating that stressed boreal forests may represent an important source of aromatics. Source apportionment analysis reveals the emergence of new VOC sources during and after cutting, highlighting a more complex response of VOC emissions to forest management than previously recognized. Post-cutting factors further suggest a persistent, long-term influence on atmospheric composition. In addition, a chemical box model is used to simulate VOC oxidation processes under different clear-cutting scenarios, providing further insight into the underlying chemical mechanisms.
How to cite: Gong, Y., Wu, C., Krejci, R., Petersen, R., Bauer, M., Holst, T., Rinne, J., Lehner, I., Gramlich, Y., Hallquist, M., Slowik, J., Prévôt, A., and Mohr, C.: Underestimated Short- and Long-Term Impact of Clear-Cutting on Volatile Organic Compounds in a Boreal Forest, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-5398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-5398, 2026.
Soil respiration is a major pathway by which terrestrial carbon returns to the atmosphere, although knowledge about its variation across forest stand age classes is limited. Forest stand age is considered a key factor influencing forest-floor CO2 fluxes, however, previous studies report contrasting patterns for heterotrophic respiration – ranging from no effect to increases with age. Improving our understanding of these dynamics is essential for reducing uncertainties in forest carbon balance and informing sustainable management strategies.
We present ongoing work based on manual chamber measurements of CO₂ efflux across ten managed Norway spruce forest stands in northeastern Skåne, Sweden, spanning a chronosequence from recent clear-cut to mature stands (0 to ~120 years). Monthly measurements began in summer 2024 to capture seasonal cycles across all stands, providing a unique dataset to explore how forest development influences soil respiration. Each stand includes untreated reference plots and root-exclusion treatments, enabling future partitioning of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. Preliminary results indicate differences among age classes, with younger stands exhibiting higher summer CO2 fluxes compared to older stands, although variability remains high. These patterns may reflect differences in root contribution, soil organic matter pools and microclimatic conditions across the chronosequence.
This study is part of a larger research effort aimed at identifying the stand age at which optimum carbon uptake occurs and evaluating rotation forestry against alternative management practices, such as continuous cover forestry. By contributing empirical observations from a managed forest landscape, this study also aims to reduce uncertainties in carbon flux estimates and support improved parameterization of vegetation models. Ultimately, these findings will inform assessments of forest carbon balance and, in turn, support policy and climate mitigation strategies and offer insights relevant to harvest planning and stand rotation decisions.
How to cite: Jaakkola, E., Biermann, T., Ström, L., Vestin, P., and Lindroth, A.: Soil respiration across a managed forest chronosequence in southern Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16616, 2026.
Posters on site: Mon, 4 May, 08:30–10:15 | Hall X1
The CLIMB-FOREST Horizon Europe project (101059888) addresses a need to strengthen the role of European forests in mitigating climate change while maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services and old-growth forests. By integrating empirical data, advanced modelling and a multi-actor approach, CLIMB-FOREST generates science-based socio-economic pathways for future climate-smart forest management across Europe.
WP1: Mapping Current Forests and Management Patterns
The first work package provides a pan-European mapping of forest status and managament, and specific fieldwork within primary forests. We produced pan-European forest age, structure, carbon storage and management regimes from national forest inventory data. Through paired site comparisons of primary and managed forests, the project quantifies how forestry practices influence carbon sequestration. These maps form the empirical backbone for later modelling and scenario analyses.
WP2: Process Understanding at Field Sites
CLIMB-FOREST quantifies biogeochemical and biophysical processes at long-term monitoring sites across climatic gradients in Europe. Using field measurements and satellite observations, WP2 assesses carbon uptake, disturbance responses, and other climate-relevant processes in forest ecosystems including short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). A database of over 80 contributing sites, with linked carbon stocks and ecosystem function data improves the understanding of forest climate effects.
WP3: Bioeconomy and Wood Product Preferences
WP3 explores the socio-economic dimensions of forest-based mitigation. This work package quantifies the role of forest products, especially long-lived ones in climate mitigation and for the bioeconomy. Interviews and surveys with forest owners, industry actors and end-users capture preferences, perceived barriers, and incentives for adopting alternative wood products and management practices.
WP4: Pan-European Integrated Modelling
WP4 brings together data from WP1 – WP3 and management recommendations from WP5 into advanced, integrated modelling frameworks. These models simulate different management and socio-economic pathway scenarios for the future, and simulate how climate, associated disturbances and management alternatives in each pathway influence biodiversity and forest states and function over the whole of Europe, as well as trade-offs between targeted policies and desired environmental benefits.
WP5: Stakeholder Engagement and Adaptation
This work package actively engages with forest owners, wood industries and civil society through field visits and workshops in representative forest regions. Stakeholders identify and refine optimal management strategies that enhance resilience to climate change while delivering biodiversity and ecosystem services. These participatory activities ensure that project outputs are grounded in real-world needs and concrete adaptation.
We are 3 years into the project, and well on the way to provide suggestions for forest management pathways in Europe that are scientifically sound, sustainable and climate-mitigating. The modelling outcomes already point to a clear trade-off between high volume of timber produced in highly productive and greenhouse gas intensive socio-economic scenarios and more environmentally sustainable scenarios.
How to cite: Kristensson, A., Ahlström, A., Ruiz-Benito, P., Lange, H., Rounsevell, M., Solberg, S., and Miller, P.: Introduction to the CLIMB-FOREST project: Climate Mitigation and Bioeconomy Pathways for Sustainable Forestry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12332, 2026.
Forests are increasingly exposed to extreme events and disturbances like droughts, storms, fires, pathogens, and others. At the same time, forests are expected to act as important carbon sinks with the corresponding climate change mitigation capacity. What are the links between forest structure and ecosystem functional properties and the resilience against disturbances and extreme events? What are the options for forest management in this context?
Using data from flux towers and field experiments from 90 sites in 16 countries, mostly in Europe, and remote sensing observations, we investigate the role of forest structure as buffer of climate extremes; link light-use efficiency to stand characteristics and management; elucidate the role of climate effects of short-lived climate forcers and their feedback due to a warming climate, stress and disturbances, and evaluate the impact of extreme drought, fire disturbances and forest management on soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen dynamics.
Combining GAMs with bootstrap-based variable importance analysis, we could show that there are associations between the means of selected Ecosystem Functional Properties of boreal and temperate forests, like photosynthetic capacity (NEPsat) or underlying water-use efficiency (uWUE), and structural complexity metrics, like Leaf Area Index or Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation. With increasing drought stress, higher canopies, LAI and species number stabilizes the forest response both for NEPsat and uWUE.
Work on entangling the climate effects of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) is progressing with measurements of terpene concentrations and emissions and aerosol particle dynamics process modelling. Model evaluation of the climate effect from afforestation in the Nordic countries with coniferous trees on previous grassland shows that the climate cooling effect of increased terpene emissions and aerosol formation outweighs the warming effect due to the filtering of aerosol particles by trees.
Field experiments on Spanish sites indicate that drought (induced through precipitation exclusion) significantly reduces the litter decomposition rate, and that thinning increases SOC content; however, differences in SOC between management regimes are often masked by high spatial variability.
The work presented has emerged within the Work Package “Data assessment of processes and their impacts on biodiversity and climate effects on forests” of the CLIMB-FOREST H2020 EU project.
How to cite: Lange, H., Bäck, J., Hildebrandt, A., Holst, T., Jocher, G., Kelly, J., Kljun, N., Klosterhalfen, A., Knohl, A., Kowalska, N., Kristensson, A., Morcillo, L., Sauras-Yera, T., Schacherl, T. P., and Vilagrosa, A.: How Forest Structure and Management Impact on Forest Behavior, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7060, 2026.
Disturbances such as extreme drought stress are becoming more frequent globally and pose a critical threat to boreal and temperate forests. Forest resistance to disturbances is influenced by multiple factors, including soil, climate, and structural complexity. Since a substantial portion of ecosystem functioning variability is related to maximum ecosystem productivity and water-use strategies, as part of WP2 of the CLIMB-FOREST EU project we calculated ecosystem functional properties (EFPs) that reflect these processes. Specifically, we used eddy covariance flux data to quantify photosynthetic capacity (NEPsat), underlying water-use efficiency (uWUE), and evaporative fraction (EFrac) for 71 forest sites across boreal and temperate regions of Europe and North America. To describe functional stability, we analyzed both mean EFPs and their inter-annual variability for each site. To examine which scales of structural complexity are associated with EFP stability, we used satellite-based indices describing vegetation structure and heterogeneity, including Rao’s Q of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVIRao), normalized near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRvN), near-infrared entropy (NIRent), and maximum leaf area index (LAI). We applied generalized additive models (GAMs) combined with bootstrap-based variable importance analysis to evaluate associations between EFPs and structural complexity.
We found that associations between EFPs and structural complexity metrics varied among ecosystem properties, with predictors more frequently meeting bootstrap-based importance criteria for mean EFPs than for their inter-annual variability. Maximum LAI and NIRvN were consistently retained as important predictors for mean NEPsat and mean EFrac, whereas no structural complexity metrics met the importance criteria for uWUE or for most variability metrics. Smooth-term estimates indicated directional partial associations, with higher LAI and NIRvN corresponding to higher modelled values of NEPsat and EFrac, while EVIRao and NIRent showed weaker or inconsistent partial trends. Overall, the results suggest that quantity of leaves and their spatial arrangement might be more important for EFPs than horizontal heterogeneity. Forests with denser and more organized canopies tended to function at higher levels of productivity and evaporation, without showing stronger inter-annual variability.
How to cite: Schacherl, T., Kelly, J., Kljun, N., Knohl, A., Lange, H., and Klosterhalfen, A.: Influence of different scales of forest structural complexity on ecosystem stability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12135, 2026.
With the intensification of climate change and anthropogenic activities, water scarcity and drought have become critical challenges around the world, threatening various ecosystems, particularly forests. Forests are social-ecological systems that provide numerous services to humans, who, in return, alter them. While it is impossible to prevent droughts, understanding the attributes of forests, particularly their resilience, may facilitate the mitigation of drought-related adverse consequences. Resilience is a multifaceted concept that has been interpreted through various lenses in the literature, with engineering resilience emphasizing system recovery, ecological resilience investigating the adaptive capacity of forests, and social-ecological resilience highlighting the interconnectedness of human and natural systems in resilience assessment.
Building on these conceptual foundations, seven principles of resilience, maintaining diversity and redundancy (P1), managing connectivity (P2), managing slow variables and feedback (P3), fostering complex adaptive system thinking (P4), encouraging learning and experimentation (P5), broadening participation (P6), and promoting polycentric governance (P7) offer a comprehensive approach to building, evaluating, and enhancing resilience. This review aims to investigate the extent to which resilience principles have been integrated into the discourse of forest resilience to drought in the literature.
Searching the Web of Science database for studies on forest resilience from 1998 to 2024 resulted in 47 papers. Among the reviewed studies, 51% investigated resilience through the lens of ecological resilience, 30% utilized the social-ecological concept, and 19% employed engineering resilience. P4 is frequently examined using tree ring data and drought severity indices (e.g., SPEI). Species richness and composition have often been considered to evaluate P1. A close examination of the methodologies of the reviewed studies revealed that 34% are evidence-based or conceptual studies aimed at understanding the mechanisms contributing to resilience, and 21% are experimental and field studies, which often involve the use of collected field data, such as tree ring width, vegetation growth rate, to explore the response of forest systems to natural or experimentally induced drought events.
The limited use of modeling, specifically landscape or ecosystem services models, in studying forest resilience to drought is evident, with only three studies conducted on this topic. Furthermore, the case studies are nearly evenly distributed across Africa, Europe, North America, and Asia, with 7, 10, 10, and 8 studies, respectively. Four studies investigated the resilience of forests in South America, and another four focused on a global scale. A closer exploration of the reviewed studies revealed that no studies have attempted to consider all seven resilience principles jointly, highlighting a significant research gap in this area and emphasizing the need for more studies to tackle the intricate relationships between ecosystems and human communities and societies.
How to cite: Anamaghi, S., Behboudian, M., and Kalantari, Z.: Understanding Forest Resilience to Drought through Resilience Principles, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18800, 2026.
Forests are currently estimated to store 861 GtC globally, and have absorbed nearly 200 GtC over the past 150 years, half of all fossil fuel emissions. Their essential role in the terrestrial carbon cycle makes forests central to climate mitigation. For example, through maintaining natural carbon stores, replacing fossil carbon-based building materials with timber-based materials, and bio-energy production without or with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). Debates around forest-based bio-energy are highly contentious and often lack a systems perspective, omitting crucial processes required for holistic analysis of climate-relevant impacts. A systems perspective enables to quantify when and where, and the bounding conditions for carbon neutrality, moving towards transient and uncertainty-aware rather than static calculations of atmospheric CO2 concentration. By using a systems perspective, a better understanding will better define and constrain the fate of carbon. Three fundamental debates surround forest-based bio-energy:
- Is wood harvesting carbon-neutral A simple question, but the answer depends on the definition of carbon-neutrality used. We reviewed the literature to seven definitions, herein we focus on: i) IPCC: Harvesting counts as carbon loss, and there is an assumption that burning wood is carbon-neutral; further carbon credits and debts should be linked to the carbon cycle, ii) Carbon payback: Emissions must be reabsorbed by new growth, and assume to take 40 years.
- What are the uncertainties associated with predictions of forest climate mitigation potential? Earth observations and models have shown that the is slowing down, and sinks have reversed to sources. Causes are multiple, including heat waves, droughts, fires and disease. Old growth forests’ role has become clarified, with increasing evidence that they continue to take up carbon, especially under carbon and nitrogen fertilization. Yet, effectivity of bio-energy options should consider both the role of old growth forests and the slow carbon cycle, failing to re-introduce carbon back over decadal to centennial timeframes.
- What are the land area requirements of forest-based energy demands?. Globally, only 3% of our current forests are plantations, an area far from that needed to meet energy needs. Plantation forests have limited potential for climate mitigation due to their assimilation rates, harvesting regimes, and heightened fire risk, among others. Multiple future scenarios use abondoned land for expanding energy crops, yet without an examination of the efficiency of photosynthesis versus that of photovoltaic solar panels (0.1% versus 20%).
With our systems perspective, we compare the carbon balance between forests that are managed for bioenergy and that of forests that remain intact. In this presentation we only focus on carbon with a focus on residual flows. Our results question if the promotion of bioenergy from forests through the Renewable Energy Directive can level off all trade-offs. While forests are crucial for climate adaptation and restoration such as climate-smart forestry, biodiversity-friendly afforestation, nature-based climate solutions, a one-size fits all approach may be detrimental especially in the long run.
How to cite: Dekker, S., de Boer, H., Santos, M., Hanssen, S., and de Kroon, H.: Forest-based climate mitigation: a systems perspective focused on bio-energy and carbon, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6829, 2026.
This work addresses a fundamental limitation in current forest restoration strategies: degraded landscapes are highly fragmented, yet investment decisions are rarely guided by spatially explicit economic indicators. As a result, restoration efforts often depend on voluntary actions and fail to alter the spatial configurations that allow deforestation to persist and spread. We present a framework that integrates fractal theory1, landscape topology2, and economic reasoning to convert the geometry of deforested areas into measurable restoration costs at the pixel level.
Using ecological skeletons2 and critical thresholds of natural capital, we derive a spatial–economic metric that assigns an intervention cost to every degraded patch. This leads to investment and priority maps that explicitly show where action should be taken, the expected financial effort required, and the order in which patches should be restored. By turning sophisticated fractal diagnostics into practical decision-support tools, this work provides a quantitative foundation for allocating public and private funds to restoration actions that maximize impact per unit of investment.
1 Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Martín-Sotoca, J. J., & Tarquis Alfonso, A. M. (2021). Local fractal connections to characterize the spatial processes of deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Entropy, 23(6), 748.
2 Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Gobin, A., Tarquis Alfonso, A. M., & de la Riva Fernández, J. (2025). Understanding local connectivity and complexity in the skeleton of deforestation. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 18192.
How to cite: Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Ansaloni, R., Martínez, E., Castro-Rivera, Ma. E., and Pérez-Blanco, D.: Mapping forest restoration costs using a spatial–economic framework for fractal deforestation patterns, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10441, 2026.
Natural climate solutions (NCS) are often promoted as cost-effective and readily available mitigation measures to slow down global warming. The largest emission reduction potentials are estimated for forest-based NCS such as reforestation, avoided deforestation, and improved forest management. Yet, uncertainties are high regarding the magnitude and permanence of negative or avoided emissions, given i.a. uncertainties in implementation and governance of these measures, extrapolating global potentials from limited case study data, and effects of climate change on forest carbon stocks.
We set out to better constrain the biophysical potential of forest-based NCS using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The model has a long track record of simulating the effects of climate and climate change on the carbon, water and nitrogen cycle of forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Whereas the management of agricultural systems was already well-represented, the model so far had no explicit representation of any forest management.
We implemented forest harvest, but more importantly replaced the use of a single average individual representing all trees in a grid-cell with an explicit representation of age classes in order to improve simulation of forest (re-)growth after management (harvest or land-use abandonment) and after natural disturbance events (e.g. fire, drought).
We show results for the historical period and future scenarios contrasting simulations with and without forest harvest and demonstrate the importance of including age classes.
How to cite: Ostberg, S. and Müller, C.: Implementing forest-based natural climate solutions (NCS) in a global vegetation model to better constrain global potentials, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12351, 2026.
Forest-based climate mitigation depends on the long-term stability of forest carbon uptake, yet resilience under shifting hydroclimatic conditions remains uncertain. While forest management and reporting largely operate within national borders, forest water supply is regulated by atmospheric moisture transport across large and often transboundary source regions. This creates a scale mismatch between governance structures and the physical processes that sustain carbon sequestration.
We develop a global framework linking (i) governance-relevant sink units (countries) with (ii) physically defined upwind moisture source regions to assess the hydroclimatic vulnerability of major forest carbon stocks. Large forest carbon stocks are mapped from satellite-based aboveground biomass products, and hydroclimatic stress is quantified using drought indices alongside carbon-uptake proxies. Areas are classified as vulnerable where increasing drought stress co-occurs with weakening carbon uptake signals over recent decades.
Using an Eulerian atmospheric moisture tracking model (WAM2layers), we quantify each sink region’s seasonal dependence on terrestrial versus oceanic upwind moisture sources and the spatial concentration of key source areas. Initial results indicate strong geographic and seasonal variation in upwind moisture dependence, showing that atmospheric teleconnections can influence drought exposure of forest carbon sinks beyond national boundaries.
How to cite: Grof, L., Bakels, L., Zanchettin, D., Staal, A., and Wang-Erlandsson, L.: Upwind moisture sources shape drought vulnerability of major forest carbon stocks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17473, 2026.
Forest productivity often increases with tree species mixing. However, the structural mechanisms through which species mixing reorganizes stand structure across hierarchical levels and thereby regulates forest productivity and carbon storage remain unresolved. Here, we combined high-resolution UAV-LiDAR surveys with Dagum Gini decomposition in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest to partition stand structural heterogeneity into inter- and intra-specific components. We found that species mixing generated contrasting structural responses across hierarchical levels, amplifying size differentiation among species while reducing size variation within species. The resulting increase in inter-specific heterogeneity was the dominant pathway promoting aboveground carbon accumulation, consistent with realized niche complementarity and more efficient space use. By contrast, intra-specific structural convergence exerted a negative effect on carbon storage, likely reflecting growth suppression under intensified neighborhood competition. Overall, species mixing enhanced aboveground biomass because the benefits of species-level structural stratification outweighed the costs of population-level homogenization. Our results highlight hierarchical structural reorganization as a key mechanism linking biodiversity to forest productivity.
How to cite: Zhou, Z.: Species mixing enhances aboveground biomass via structural heterogeneity in a subtropical forest, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1895, 2026.
Restoration based on reference ecosystems offers essential benchmarks for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Yet, existing quantitative research often fails to account for the spatial heterogeneity of these references. This study proposes a regionalized framework combining zoning logic with key indicators to assess restoration goals and potential fairly. Using the northern Qinling Mountains as a case area, the research applies a dual-indicator approach: first, using eco-geological metrics to map resource distribution; and second, utilizing landscape integrity, NDVI, and NPP to set site-specific restoration targets. Reference ecosystems were defined via protected area data and human footprint thresholds. By tracking the spatio-temporal evolution of these systems, the study evaluates previous restoration efforts and identifies priority zones for future intervention. This approach provides a scientifically grounded blueprint for regional ecological protection and repair.
How to cite: Hao, Y.: Towards a spatiotemporal framework for ecological restoration management based on geo-ecological zoning and reference states, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4624, 2026.
Heartwood formation represents a major physiological transition in tree development, converting hydraulically active sapwood into structurally and chemically resistant tissue. This process has important implications for tree longevity, hydraulic regulation, and long-term carbon storage, yet the drivers of variation in heartwood formation among conspecific trees remain poorly quantified. In particular, it is unclear how accelerated growth, management interventions, and short-term stress interact to influence heartwood development in temperate hardwood species within forestry systems designed to enhance carbon sequestration and resilience. Here, we assess the combined effects of tree size, age, growth rates, and growth suppression on heartwood formation in Quercus robur across a network of planted stands of contrasting ages and species compositions in central England. These include young (14-year-old) intimate mixture plantations comprising up to 27 tree species, established with the explicit aim of improving carbon storage and forest resilience, alongside older planted stands and managed trees subjected to canopy pollarding. We measured heartwood and sapwood areas in 183 trees spanning ages from 11 to 120 years, using full stem cross-sections and increment cores. Heartwood boundaries were validated using ferrous sulphate staining and tylosis detection. Growth histories were reconstructed using tree-ring analysis, allowing estimation of lifetime mean growth rates, size-independent instantaneous growth rates, and post-disturbance growth resilience following the 2018 drought. Statistical analyses combined nonlinear allometric models, generalized additive models, and mixed-effects approaches to disentangle the roles of size, age, growth, management, and stress. Heartwood area increased strongly with stem diameter, explaining most of the variation among individual trees (R² ≈ 0.98), while age exerted an additional but secondary influence. For trees of similar diameter, older individuals consistently contained more heartwood, indicating that heartwood formation is not solely a function of size. Heartwood onset occurred early, with a 50% probability at a diameter of 8.5 ± 0.8 cm. Following onset, heartwood expansion accounted for an increasing fraction of total basal area increment, rising from approximately 40% in small trees to over 80% in large trees. Despite declining sapwood proportion with size, absolute sapwood area continued to increase, indicating sustained canopy development even in large trees. Both lifetime mean and size-independent instantaneous growth rates were positively associated with heartwood expansion, demonstrating that faster-growing trees consistently allocate more biomass to heartwood formation. In contrast, short-term growth suppression following drought or canopy pollarding did not reduce heartwood development. Trees with lower post-drought growth resilience and pollarded trees that had already initiated heartwood formation exhibited equal or greater heartwood proportions, suggesting a shift in allocation towards durable tissues under stress. Our results support a sapwood homeostasis mechanism linking growth, canopy function, and heartwood formation in Q. robur. Importantly, accelerated growth in mixed-species plantations does not compromise heartwood development and may enhance long-term carbon residence times through earlier and greater heartwood accumulation. These findings provide mechanistic evidence that climate- and biodiversity-smart forestry strategies based on species mixtures and productivity gains can simultaneously support resilience and long-term carbon storage in temperate hardwood systems.
How to cite: Barcante Ladvocat Cintra, B., Blowfield, H., Anderson, O., and Bradwell, J.: Growth-driven heartwood formation in oak: evidence across monocultures and mixed-species plantations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12998, 2026.
Biodiversity preservation is a critical component of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in the face of accelerating climate change and its impacts on forest ecosystems. Macrofungi, particularly ectomycorrhizal species, play essential ecological roles in nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and maintaining forest health. This study surveyed macrofungal diversity from May to November 2025 in the proposed Taiwan Red Cypress Ecological Conservation Area. The sampling site was located near the Lulin Formosan Cypress, along the Alishan Road. This area is a natural high-elevation forest dominated by Chamaecyparis formosensis, Quercus tatakaensis, Pasania kawakamii, Prunus campanulata, and Phellodendron amurense var. wilsonii. Fungal identification was based on morphological characteristics and molecular analyses, including sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and large subunit (LSU) regions. For selected taxa, additional gene loci such as rpb2 and tef1-α were sequenced to perform multi-locus phylogenetic analysis. In total, 100 fungal taxa were identified, comprising 22 Ascomycetes and 78 Basidiomycetes. Among these, 94 macrofungal species were newly recorded for the conservation area, and 8 were new records for Taiwan, indicating high fungal diversity and ecological significance. Many of the recorded taxa are ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with dominant tree species in the area. The results provide valuable baseline data for understanding the responses of fungal communities to environmental changes and support long-term monitoring and conservation planning in high-elevation Taiwanese forests.
How to cite: Hsiao, W., Xu, Y.-C., Wen, C.-C., and Chen, C.-Y.: Macrofungal Diversity in the Proposed Taiwan Red Cypress Conservation Area: New Records and a Baseline for Conservation Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15546, 2026.
Climate change transforms national park ecosystems, affecting wildlife and visitors alike. Systematic and flexible management strategies are needed to address varying climate impacts. This study established two conservation objectives—biodiversity conservation and forest hazard management—for climate adaptation in Palgongsan National Park, Daegu, South Korea, applying the RAD(Resist-Accept-Direct) framework.
We identified actionable measures: biodiversity conservation through "habitat refugia establishment and management" and "structural diversity enhancement"; forest hazard management via "fuelbreaks establishment," "thinning and pruning," and "trail relocation". Spatial machine learning models identified biodiversity priority zones and fire-vulnerable areas. RAD adaptation levels were assigned to each zone, visualizing intervention outcomes.
Spatial analysis identified priority zones for adaptation measures. Single intervention-single adaptation level suits some areas, while multiple interventions-multiple adaptation levels are optimal elsewhere. This demonstrates that intervention types and combinations vary systematically by conservation objectives and local characteristics.
The RAD framework proves effective for national park climate adaptation strategy development. Proposed spatial priorities and intervention combinations provide a scientific basis to enhance existing management plans. Continuous monitoring and stakeholder collaboration are essential post-implementation.
How to cite: Lee, J., Mo, Y., and Jeong, G.: Developing Climate Change Adaptation Pathways Considering Biodiversity and Forest Hazards: A Case Study of Palgongsan National Park, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16504, 2026.
Wildfire projections for Europe depend not only on future climatic conditions, but also on how fuels evolve as forests age, are managed, and expand through afforestation. This study focuses on the dynamic fuel representation in FLAM by linking it with the forest model G4M in a coupled framework for EU27+UK. The coupling provides scenario-consistent, annually updated fuels (from live biomass, deadwood, and litter) from G4M to FLAM, and FLAM returns burned area used to update forest carbon trajectories and fuels in G4M in the following year.
FLAM runs on a 0.5° grid with daily time steps and simulates ignition, spread, and burned area as a function of climate, fuel loads, vegetation type, and human influence. Daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed are taken from ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 forcings (UKESM1-0-LL and GFDL-ESM4). Fuels from G4M are divided into “old” fuels (pre-2000 managed forests) and “new” fuels (post-2000 afforested forests). The combined fuel load in each grid cell is updated dynamically using the effective burned ratio, so cells with higher burned ratios increasingly draw fuel from unburned stands, while low burned-ratio cells remain dominated by managed forest fuels.
To limit repeated burning within grid cells, an annual burned ratio approach is used to reduce the effective burnable fraction where only the remaining unburned forest area can burn. To avoid unrealistic permanent fuel depletion, a recovery function reduces the effective burned ratio toward zero (parameterized with a = 0.65 over b = 25 years), implying roughly 4% of the remaining burned ratio is removed annually, consistent with multi-decadal stand recovery times and typical rotation lengths in European managed forests. Assumptions include successful regeneration after stand-replacing fires and no change in species composition.
FLAM is calibrated and validated with historical forest burned area observations showing moderate correlation (monthly correlation r ≈ 0.63; annual r ≈ 0.59). Projections for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 show cumulative burned area of roughly ~27–35 Mha and wildfire-driven biomass carbon losses of ~290–360 Mt C. The presentation will show how this dynamic fuel coupling changes projected wildfire outcomes and what it implies for forest carbon and biomass supply.
How to cite: San Pedro, J., Jo, H.-W., Park, E., Krasovskiy, A., and Kraxner, F.: Estimating wildfire-driven forest carbon losses using dynamic fuels under managed and afforested forests in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20201, 2026.
Sustainable forest management and ecosystem-based adaptation are essential for maintaining ecosystem service (ES) functionality under climate change. We apply the spatially explicit, process-based dynamic model LandClim, which incorporates the effects of major natural disturbances (e.g., wind, fire and bark beetle outbreaks), to assess how different climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and forest management strategies influence the future provision of ecosystem services in multiple and climatically as well as ecologically different European forests. Simulations are initialized using detailed forest inventory data. The study is conducted across six European Living Labs, where simulation scenarios and management strategies are co-developed in close collaboration with local stakeholders. We investigate how alternative management strategies can balance ecosystem service provision as forest dynamics evolve under changing climatic conditions. Natural disturbances and their shifting regimes are explicitly accounted for in the analysis. This study supports the development of more resilient forest management strategies, enhancing the sustainability of ES provision and facilitating adaptation to climate change.
How to cite: Costa, M., Djahangard, M., Vollmer, M., Coșofreț, C., Krsnik, G., Kukobat, L., Chen, L., and Bugmann, H.: Exploring ecosystem-based adaptation under climate change in different European forests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21839, 2026.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce embedded deforestation in certain commodities imported into the European Union by requiring companies to prove that products are deforestation-free. Here, the level of due diligence obligations required is based on the overall risk score assigned to a specific country of origin. The first version of these risk scores, published last year, aims to reflect past deforestation rates and governance risks. However, the scores have been widely criticized by political and environmental advocacy groups for being politically motivated rather than representative of real deforestation risks, and for being too coarse in their national scale and commodity-invariant design. Hence, we here provide an additional, high-resolution, spatially explicit perspective on deforestation risk for the upcoming year. Using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and spatiotemporal data on past forest losses, landscape characteristics, and human development, we compute global risk maps for different drivers of forest loss, including deforestation for different commodities. With this analysis, we aim to complement the existing EUDR risk scores by highlighting sub-national variation and driver-specific risk patterns. We aim to contribute a transparent, data-driven perspective to ongoing discussions on deforestation risk in international policy processes.
How to cite: Knecht, N., Fetzer, I., and Rocha, J.: Predicting forest loss risk for deforestation regulation using Convolutional Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21852, 2026.
