The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth system, responsible for large-scale oceanic heat and salt redistribution. As a potential tipping element, it plays a vital role in regulating climate variability and abrupt transitions. Multiple lines of evidence from observations, reconstructions, and CMIP5/6 ensemble simulations point to a long-term weakening consistent with anthropogenic warming, and several studies indicate that the risk of a substantial slowdown or even collapse within this century may be underestimated.
While debates continue over the extent to which the observed weakening reflects internal variability, the risks associated with a substantially weakened or collapsed AMOC are profound—particularly for regional climate systems and socio-economic consequences. Despite its potential to trigger widespread disruptions, the AMOC’s vulnerability remains underappreciated and underprepared for by most policy frameworks.
This session welcomes contributions from observational and modeling perspectives and encourages interdisciplinary studies that link ocean dynamics to atmospheric processes, climate extremes, and societal impacts. In particular, we welcome contributions that:
• diagnose AMOC variability, trends, and mechanisms across timescales;
• link ocean dynamics to atmospheric circulation, extreme events, and compound risks;
• reveal impacts on ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles;
• develop decision-relevant tools and policy guidance—such as, prediction and early-warning indicators and adaptation/risk-management strategies.
Interdisciplinary, cross-scale studies—from process-level understanding and theory to high-resolution modeling and data-driven approaches—are also warm welcome. Our overarching aim is to advance robust science while informing preparedness for a potentially weaker AMOC.