PICO
Heavy precipitation events in small and medium size catchments can trigger flash floods, with very short lag times (usually a few hours) and high specific peak discharges. Often, they are also associated with geomorphic processes such as erosion, debris flows or shallow landslides mobilizing large amounts of unconsolidated material.
Early Warning Systems are seen as an effective measure to reduce the impacts of these events through effective emergency management; their improvement can be achieved by (i) increasing the forecast skill (with improved predictions of the physical variables or the hazard), or (ii) integrating additional information to support decision making.
The sources of uncertainty in the forecasting chain include the high variability of rainfall in space and time, limitations in observations and forecasts, the variability and nonlinearity of physical processes, and incomplete exposure and vulnerability data to translate hazard forecasts into impacts.
This session aims to illustrate current advances in monitoring, modeling, and short-range forecasting of rainfall-induced hazards, including their societal impacts with contributions on the following themes:
- Development of new measurement techniques adapted to flash floods and hydro-geomorphic hazards (including in-situ sensors and remote sensing data), and quantification of the associated uncertainties.
- Short-range rainfall forecasting adapted to heavy precipitation events, including seamless rainfall forecasting based on NWP models, nowcasts and/or ML, and representation of associated uncertainties through ensembles.
- Understanding and modeling of flash floods, hydro-geomorphic processes and their cascading effects, at appropriate space-time scales.
- Integrated hydrometeorological forecasting chains and new modeling approaches for flash floods and geomorphic hazards in gauged and ungauged basins.
- Observation, understanding and prediction of societal vulnerability and social responses to flash floods and/or hydro-geomorphic hazards.
- Development of impact-based approaches, including the integration of societal vulnerability.
- New approaches to validate hydrometeorological and impact forecasts, including the use of new direct and indirect observation techniques.
- Assessment of possible evolutions in frequency and hazard characteristics due to climate change.
Contributions related to recent events (e.g. those that affected Valencia, Spain, or the Guadalupe River, TX) are encouraged.