PICO
This session focuses on advancing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasting from research to operations (and operations to research) across spatial scales and time horizons. It aims to illustrate current progress in monitoring, modeling, and forecasting of rainfall-induced hazards (including their impacts) and discuss how advanced hydrometeorological ensemble approaches are to be scientifically robust while also being user-centric, impactful, and effectively communicating uncertainty to support decisions.
Topics of interest include:
- Development of new measurement techniques adapted to flash floods and hydro-geomorphic hazards (including in-situ sensors and remote sensing data), and quantification of the associated uncertainties.
- Rainfall forecasting adapted to heavy precipitation events, including seamless rainfall forecasting based on NWP models, nowcasts and/or ML, and representation of associated uncertainties through ensembles.
- Understanding and modeling of flash floods, hydro-geomorphic processes and their cascading effects, at appropriate space-time scales.
- Integrated hydrometeorological forecasting chains and new modeling approaches.
- Advanced computational science for scalable ensemble generation, data assimilation, and post-processing.
- Observation, understanding and prediction of societal vulnerability.
- Impact analysis and inclusive forecasting, linking forecasts to diverse applications and sectors.
- Standardized evaluation frameworks for ensembles, including verification, benchmarking, and uncertainty quantification.
- Science communication to improve understanding of probabilistic forecasts and uncertainty.
- Behavioral science and crisis management, understanding how people act on forecasts, especially during extremes.
- Research-to-operations (R2O) and Operations-to-Research (O2R).