SM4.3 | A comprehensive understanding of slow earthquakes
EDI
A comprehensive understanding of slow earthquakes
Co-organized by TS3
Convener: Mariano SupinoECSECS | Co-conveners: Marco Maria Scuderi, Yuji ItohECSECS, Wei Peng, Baptiste Rousset
Orals
| Thu, 07 May, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room K2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 07 May, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 07 May, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Tectonic faults exhibit a spectrum of failure modes ranging from aseismic creep, to slow slip and devastating earthquakes. Despite the growth in observations of slow earthquakes, debates about their mechanisms, scaling properties, and interplay with fast (ordinary) earthquakes remain. Leveraging cutting-edge technologies in the laboratory, advanced observational methods, and sophisticated modeling, this session aims to bring together the diversity of works associated with several aspects listed below, to broaden our understanding and encourage discussions:

Underlying Mechanisms: What mechanism(s) limits slip speed? We encourage studies about the micro-mechanics, frictional behaviors, rupture dynamics, fluids and temperature and pressure conditions initiating and driving slow slip events.

Scaling Relationships: Decoding the scaling of slow earthquakes across time, space, and energy dimensions, offering insights into their core dynamics.

Technological Innovations: Showcasing avant-garde tools and methodologies that boost our proficiency in detecting, analyzing, and understanding slow earthquakes.

Interplay between Slow and Fast Earthquakes: Probing into the seismic cycle, their mutual impacts, and potential warning signs exhibited by diverse seismic phenomena.

We encourage contributions that span from laboratory experiments to volcanic and tectonic research; from geological and geophysical observations, including but not limited to seismic and geodetic, to imaging and modeling.

Orals: Thu, 7 May, 08:30–10:15 | Room K2

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Mariano Supino, Marco Maria Scuderi, Yuji Itoh
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:45
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EGU26-2406
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ruyu Yan, Satoshi Ide, Xiaodong Chen, and Heping Sun

The activity of tectonic tremor, which is high-frequency endmember of slow earthquakes, is useful for gaining insights into the physical processes that govern slow slips and geodynamic activities along the plate boundary. While the focal mechanism of tremors is estimated from seismic waveforms, the stress states that trigger tremors are largely unknown in most areas. An exponential relationship exists between tremor rate and tidal shear stress, and the solution for a tidal sensitivity parameter can be determined using the maximum likelihood method. The likelihood function includes stress orientation, which can also be optimized. Therefore, the optimized stress orientation may have relation to their focal mechanism. In this study, we initially present a method for obtaining the optimal stress orientation with a double-couple constraint and illustrate its effectiveness by applying it to tectonic tremors in western Japan from 2004 to 2009. Our results show that, without any geometric constraints, the stress orientations derived from tidal sensitivity do not match those suggested by focal mechanisms. When we limit the analysis to a plane aligned with the local plate interface, however, some of the preferred orientations become consistent with the focal-mechanism solutions. This indicates that tidal sensitivity on its own cannot reliably determine the slip or stress orientations of slow deformation, because fault slip is guided by pre-existing weak planes rather than being free to occur in any direction. This approach introduces a novel perspective for investigating geodynamic processes occurring within active plate boundaries.

How to cite: Yan, R., Ide, S., Chen, X., and Sun, H.: Does the Tidal Sensitivity of Tectonic Tremors Constrain Local Stress Orientation?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2406, 2026.

08:45–08:55
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EGU26-9824
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On-site presentation
Harsha Bhat, Yishuo Zhuo, Ankit Gupta, Hideo Aochi, Alexandre Schubnel, and Satoshi Ide

Tidal stress is a periodic stress acting globally on the Earth, driven primarily by
the gravitational forcing of the Moon and the Sun. Understanding how tidal
stress can trigger seismic events is essential for constraining tectonic
environments that are sensitive to small, periodic stress perturbations.
Here we investigate tidal triggering on stable sliding, velocity-weakening (VW)
rate-and-state frictional (RSF) faults using a spring-block framework. We first
apply idealized step-like and boxcar normal stress perturbations to
demonstrate a resonance-like amplification of slip rate when the perturbation
duration approaches the intrinsic RSF time scale. Building on this observation,
we perform non-dimensional analyses and numerical simulations with
sinusoidal tidal-like perturbations to identify the key parameters controlling
tidal triggering and their admissible ranges. We further characterize the
triggered events through observable quantities, including radiation efficiency
and tidal phase. Our results show that resonance effects allow tidal stress to trigger both
regular periodic and complex temporal slip events on otherwise stable sliding
VW faults. The triggering behavior is primarily controlled by two non-
dimensional parameters: the normalized perturbation period and the
normalized perturbation amplitude. Increasing the normalized period shifts
event timing from peak tidal stress toward the maximum stress rate, whereas
increasing the normalized amplitude promotes a transition from slow to fast
slip events. The parameter space permitting tidally triggered slip events
suggests that the RSF parameter,$a\sigma$, which characterizes the
instantaneous frictional strength of an interface, should not exceed tens to
hundreds of kilopascals, and that the characteristic slip distance for frictional
weakening is likely on the order of micrometers.

How to cite: Bhat, H., Zhuo, Y., Gupta, A., Aochi, H., Schubnel, A., and Ide, S.: Theoretical Constraints on Tidal Triggering of Slow Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9824, 2026.

08:55–09:05
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EGU26-11003
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Estelle Neyrinck, Baptiste Rousset, Cécile Doubre, Luis Rivera, Cécile Lasserre, Marie-Pierre Doin, Philippe Durand, and Flatsim Team

A better understanding of aseismic slip dynamics throughout the seismic cycle is essential to refine seismic hazard estimates. Analysis of the Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series in the last decades has proved its efficiency to detect and characterize slow slip events (SSE), especially on strike-slip segments. However, the implementation of automatic SSE detection methods is needed to overcome the large incoming flow of data. Here, we adapted the geodetic matched filter approach developed for GNSS time series by Rousset et al. (2017) to InSAR time series. The method is computing physics-based dislocation slip models corresponding to synthetic reconstructions of SSEs, that are correlated with InSAR time series, taking advantage of the high spatial density of InSAR observations. By comparing true and false detections on synthetic tests including InSAR realistic noise, we derive probabilistic estimates of the true detections as a function of SSE magnitudes and depths. We show that this method enables the detection with ≥ 90 % confidence of shallow SSEs with magnitudes larger than 4.5 using horizontal east-west InSAR time series. And it can detect events with magnitude larger than 4.25 with ≥ 45 % confidence. We applied this method along both creeping segments of the North Anatolian Fault - Izmit and Ismetpasa, by using the InSAR time series from 2016 to 2021 automatically processed in the framework of the FLATSIM project between CNES and FormaTerre by using Sentinel-1 SAR images and based on the NSBAS processing chain (Doin et al., 2011; Thollard et al., 2021). It detected without any prior knowledge three transient events already reported by previous studies along the Izmit segment (Aslan et al., 2019; Neyrinck et al., 2024), and two transient events also already reported by previous studies along the Ismetpasa one (Jolivet et al., 2023; Özdemir et al., 2025). Based on a weighted stacked time series associated with the detections, we estimate a magnitude for these events ranging from 4.0 to 5.0, also compatible with previous estimates. Applying this method on worldwide strike-slip fault segments may allow a rapid detection and a first order characterization of transient slip events.

How to cite: Neyrinck, E., Rousset, B., Doubre, C., Rivera, L., Lasserre, C., Doin, M.-P., Durand, P., and Team, F.: Automatic detection of slow slip events using InSAR data: Application to the North Anatolian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11003, 2026.

09:05–09:25
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EGU26-15280
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Satoshi Ide

Since its discovery about 25 years ago, tectonic tremor has been identified in many subduction zones and transform plate boundaries worldwide, greatly advancing our understanding of regional tectonics and earthquake generation processes. Tremor detection and catalog construction continue to progress in many regions. In this presentation, I review recent advances made by our group over the past several years.

Regarding tremor detection methods, although the use of AI has become increasingly common, the envelope-based approach remains highly effective. The code developed by Mizuno and Ide (2019, EPS) is openly available on GitHub (https://github.com/not522/MizunoIde2019), and has facilitated new tremor detections in various regions. Using newly released continuous seismic data from Taiwan, Ide and Chen (2024, GRL) revealed extensive tremor activity beneath the Central Range. Azúa et al. (2025, GRL) demonstrated that tremor near the Chile Triple Junction occurs close to a slab window. Lu and Ide (2026, EGU) detected previously unrecognized tremor in California through a comprehensive analysis of statewide continuous seismic data, particularly near the Mendocino Triple Junction and the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault. Although distinguishing tremor from regular earthquakes has long been difficult, Yano and Ide (2024, GRL) developed a clustering-based approach that discriminates tremor from ordinary earthquakes using waveform and hypocentral features.

Estimating source mechanisms is essential for assessing the tectonic roles of tremor. Since Ide and Yabe (2014), stacked tremor signals have been used to extract very low-frequency components and perform moment tensor analyses in several regions. This method becomes increasingly stable as more data accumulate. Utilizing a new Taiwan tremor catalog, Hua et al. (2026, Tectonophysics) showed that tremor beneath the Central Range exhibits reverse-faulting mechanisms consistent with active mountain building. Mechanism estimates near the Mendocino Triple Junction also suggest tremor occurring along the lateral surface of the subducting slab.

Probabilistic modeling of tremor occurrence is another important research direction. Ide and Nomura (2022, EPS) applied renewal processes to model tremor as a time series at a given location, but capturing the characteristic spatiotemporal migration of tremor required more complex models. Yano et al. (2026, JGR) developed a stochastic process model incorporating spatial interactions and demonstrated that it outperforms renewal-based models. Such standardized models provide a basis for relating tremor behavior to tectonic processes and for detecting anomalies in otherwise steady tremor activity.

 

How to cite: Ide, S.: Recent Advances in Tectonic Tremor Research , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15280, 2026.

09:25–09:35
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EGU26-20207
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On-site presentation
Martin Vallée and Tanguy Delaporte

Very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) are generally absent from the standard seismicity catalogs because of their depleted seismic radiation at frequencies around and above 1Hz. With the aim of improving their detection, we have developed an approach where the continuous three-component records of a station pair are first template-matched with the corresponding surface-wave time windows of previously known regular earthquakes. As a time delay is allowed for one of the stations of the pair, detected events may be not collocated with their templates, and their epicenters can be determined as soon as a second pair is considered. In a second stage, based on their high-frequency radiation, we determine whether the detected events are standard earthquakes absent from the template catalog or VLFEs. This two-stage method, referred as VLFE_DRL (VLFE Detection and Relative Location), is applied to the southern Ryukyu subduction zone where VLFEs were already known to occur. Between 2004 and 2024, VLFE_DRL detects and locates there more than 160 VLFEs with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 4, occurring in areas distinct from the standard interplate seismicity. Compared with existing VLFE catalogs of the area, VLFE_DRL detects more large magnitude events, and the VLFEs locations are more clustered in space.

How to cite: Vallée, M. and Delaporte, T.: Tracking Very Low Frequency Earthquakes into long continuous records : application to the Southern Ryukyu subduction zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20207, 2026.

09:35–09:45
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EGU26-16716
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ratna Bhagat, Kattumadam M. Sreejith, Pathikrit Bhattacharya, Harsha S. Bhat, Claudio Satriano, and Vineet K. Gahalaut

At plate boundaries, the coexistence of classical earthquakes, low-frequency seismicity, and slow slip events is commonly attributed to depth-dependent frictional heterogeneity. Recent numerical studies demonstrate that similar complexity can also emerge from fault–fault interactions even in the absence of frictional heterogeneities. Here we show that this entire spectrum of plate-boundary-style slip processes occurs within an intraplate setting, confined to the upper ~8 km of the crust, during the Palghar earthquake swarm in western India.

Since late 2018, sustained seismicity has persisted within a spatially confined intraplate fault zone traditionally considered tectonically stable. By integrating data from two independent seismic networks (NGRI and NCS), we construct a unified, high-resolution earthquake catalog. Automated detection and precise relocations of 8,629 events with eight or more observations delineate two closely spaced, steeply dipping N–S–striking faults at depths of 6–8 km that host most of the seismicity. The same two fault structures are independently identified through the modeling of surface deformation data within the swarm duration from InSAR. The swarm exhibits broadband rupture behavior, showing both low-frequency events and classical earthquakes, and is characterized by a wide range of stress drops. Moment tensor solutions indicate predominantly normal faulting, consistent with the rake of geodetically inferred slip. InSAR observations further show that cumulative geodetic moment release exceeds the seismic moment by nearly two orders of magnitude, demonstrating that aseismic slip dominates the total strain budget. Both seismicity and slow slip initiate on the western fault and evolve coherently before migrating to the eastern structure. The high-resolution relocated seismicity aligns closely with the advancing front of aseismic slip on both faults, revealing a clear coevolution and coupled migration of seismicity and aseismic deformation. 

Together, these observations show that intraplate fault systems can host the same range of slip behaviors observed at plate boundaries, from classical earthquakes to slow slip, driven by migrating aseismic deformation and fault–fault interactions. Intraplate earthquake swarms, therefore, offer natural laboratories for understanding slip processes and fault interactions beyond plate boundaries.

How to cite: Bhagat, R., Sreejith, K. M., Bhattacharya, P., Bhat, H. S., Satriano, C., and Gahalaut, V. K.: Slow-slip and low-frequency earthquakes within the shallow, intraplate, Palghar seismic swarm in Western India, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16716, 2026.

09:45–09:55
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EGU26-18493
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Shaoyan Zhang, Wenping Gong, Yoshihiro Ito, Gonghui Wang, and Huiming Tang

Landslides and faults would slip in various slip patterns with an extensive velocity spectrum. The slow-moving landslides, catastrophic fast landslides, and intermittent-moving landslides share much similarity with some of the earthquake phenomena, such as the slow fault slip, fast earthquake, episodic slip. Moreover, both landslides and faults would be strongly controlled by their hydrogeology system and fluid pressure conditions. Herein, we conducted stress path- and fluid pressure-controlled triaxial shear experiments and ring-shear experiments on granular geomaterials. We reproduced diverse slip behaviors, including the slow slip, fast failure, episodic slip, under monotonic fluid overpressure and episodic fluid pressure within drained or undrained conditions. Our experiments suggest that the slip velocity might be controlled by stress drop and vice versa. The role of contraction/dilatation tendency, drained/undrained conditions, velocity-strengthening/weakening properties in determining slip pattern is systematically studied. And we adopted both active and passive seismic methods, such as seismic wave velocity and acoustic emission signal monitoring, to explore the failure precursors. Our studies could be valuable for understanding the slow to fast earthquake phenomena and providing an integrative view for multiple geohazards through linking landslides and earthquakes.

How to cite: Zhang, S., Gong, W., Ito, Y., Wang, G., and Tang, H.: Experimental studies on slow slip, fast failure, and episodic slip modulated by fluid pressure: implications for landslides and earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18493, 2026.

09:55–10:05
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EGU26-17731
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Virtual presentation
Pathikrit Bhattacharya, Terry E. Tullis, Allan M. Rubin, Nicholas M. Beeler, and Nir Z. Badt

The rate-state friction equations represent the most widely used framework to describe friction evolution in rocks and in models of earthquakes. Despite their popularity, the notion of ‘state’ evolution of the frictional interface within this framework has been relatively poorly understood for fifty years. Empirically, the state of a frictional interface has been found to evolve with slip and/or time, and in response to abrupt changes in normal stress, but the microprocesses responsible for this evolution are unclear. Under physical conditions relevant to most shallow crustal earthquakes, frictional interfaces are in contact only at numerous smaller regions called asperities, and the real contact area is expected to be a rather modest fraction of the nominal contact area. Frictional resistance results from the shear strength of only these contacting asperities. It is commonly presumed that changes in state are due primarily to changes in this real contact area under the low temperature plasticity regime assumed to operate around these highly stressed contact points. An alternative explanation is that changes in state are due to changes in some measure of the strength of the real contact area, for example due to changes in chemical bond strength or their area-averaged density. In this study, using data from 5% to ~100% normal stress step experiments, we show that the transient evolution of frictional strength with slip following medium-to-large normal stress steps cannot be understood in terms of changes in real contact area alone. Instead, changes in area-averaged contact strength play a more important role in this evolution. We formulate a framework of evolution equations for contact area, area-averaged contact strength and state that encodes contrasts in area-averaged strength between old and new regions of interfacial contact as a rate-state parameter and show that slip rate reductions of Westerly granite samples following these normal stress steps can be used to estimate this strength contrast consistently across all step sizes. For our experiments, the new contact area created rapidly by the abrupt increase in normal stress is found to be only 10-20% of the strength of the old contacts at the pre-step steady state and eventually evolves back to its pre-step steady-state strength value with slip. These experiments might lay the foundation for replacing our empirical descriptions of state evolution with an understanding of operative microprocesses that explicitly parametrizes the effect of changes in contact strength as well as contact area on frictional ‘state’ evolution.

How to cite: Bhattacharya, P., Tullis, T. E., Rubin, A. M., Beeler, N. M., and Badt, N. Z.: The gradual evolution of friction following a normal stress step reflects changes in contact strength, not contact area, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17731, 2026.

10:05–10:15

Posters on site: Thu, 7 May, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X1

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below.
Display time: Thu, 7 May, 14:00–18:00
Chairpersons: Mariano Supino, Wei Peng, Baptiste Rousset
X1.83
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EGU26-4076
Michael Bostock, Charles Sammis, and Nicolas Perez Estay

Cross-station analysis of tectonic tremor, as introduced by John Armbruster for long (150 s) windows and extended by Allan Rubin to short (4 s) windows, has afforded the highest precision mapping of tremor locations achieved to date. Cross-station locations have been used to a) reveal tremor epicentral distributions over broad (to ~104 km2) areas that are significantly sparser than those portrayed by more commonly used envelope-correlation methods; b) document a variety of tremor (and by inference slow-slip) propagation modes, and c) place tremor in a structural context leading to insights into its generation and that of slow slip more generally. In particular, our work on c) suggests that tremor occurs within the upper layer of oceanic metabasalt as the expression of disaggregation and comminution associated with underplating. The success of cross-station analysis in tremor characterization to date warrants further investigation and development of the methodology. In this presentation, we detail two improvements.  The first, applicable to both long and short windows, concerns the judicious analysis of traveltime circuits and binomial coefficients ("n choose 3") corresponding to triples of waveforms formed from many (n ≥ 4) stations. This leads to effective quality-control measures for balancing location precision versus accuracy and the leveraging of cross-event information. The second improvement concerns short windows and relies on low frequency earthquake template waveforms that characterize propagation characteristics between a localized tremor source region and surface stations. Past efforts at cross-station tremor detection have relied upon the similarity of tremor waveforms across stations. This condition can be relaxed through the use of phase normalization afforded by template waveforms thereby enabling inclusion of larger station complements and resulting in increased number and quality of detections. We demonstrate these improvements on deep tremor recordings from southern Vancouver Island between 2003-2006 and 2022-2025.

How to cite: Bostock, M., Sammis, C., and Perez Estay, N.: Improvements to Cross-Station Analysis of Tectonic Tremor , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4076, 2026.

X1.84
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EGU26-4734
Satoshi Ide and Weifan Lu

California, as a transform plate boundary, provides a distinctive tectonic setting and an ideal natural laboratory for investigating tectonic tremor and the slow deformation associated with plate motion. By analyzing continuous seismic records across multiple stations with the envelope correlation method, we identified ∼66,000 tremor events from 2000 to 2024. These events exhibit waveform characteristics consistent with tectonic tremors observed elsewhere. Beyond the previously documented central section of the San Andreas fault, we identify several new tremor clusters, primarily concentrated near the Mendocino Triple Junction and within the Big Bend segment. Our results suggest that tremor events near the Mendocino Triple Junction may mark the southern edge of the Cascadia subduction zone, while tremor events in the Big Bend region, located within the rupture zone of the 1857 M7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake, could have implications for regional seismic hazard.

How to cite: Ide, S. and Lu, W.: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Tectonic Tremor in California, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4734, 2026.

X1.85
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EGU26-6825
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ECS
Andrea Perez-Silva, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, and So Ozawa

Along the central section of North Anatolian Fault Zone, which marks the boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian plates, subsurface creep has been detected since the 1970s. This creep localizes within a ~60-70 km-long segment along-strike, known as the Ismetpasa segment. Measurements from creepmeters, GNSS and InSAR, show that aseismic slip occurs as episodic events, or slow slip events (SSEs), that last a few weeks, occur approx. every 2.5 years, and extend to a depth of 5 – 6 km. Notably, the location of these SSEs coincides with a region of shallow locking depth.  Several mechanisms have proposed to explain their occurrence, including elevated pore-fluid pressure, variation in fault-zone composition, and changes in stressing rates associated with the shallower locking depth. To understand the mechanisms that govern these events, we carry out 3D numerical simulations using rate and state friction. In our model, we explore the effect of effective normal stress, long-term slip rate distribution and friction parameters on the resulting slip behavior. We consider a range of model setups and identify scenarios that reproduce the first-order characteristics of Ismetpasa SSEs. Our results provide insights into the conditions that promote shallow and deep slow-slip on continental strike-slip faults.

 

How to cite: Perez-Silva, A., Martínez-Garzón, P., and Ozawa, S.: Probing the mechanism of slow slip events along the central North Anatolian Fault Zone, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6825, 2026.

X1.86
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EGU26-3646
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ECS
Louise Maubant, Yuji Itoh, and Aitaro Kato

Short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) occur at depths greater than ~30 km along the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan. Previous studies have successfully detected these events using GNSS data and characterized their spatial distribution along the subduction interface. However, fundamental questions remain regarding their role in the slip budget: what fraction of accumulated interseismic strain do S-SSEs release, and does their behavior remain stationary over time? Addressing these questions requires resolving the temporal evolution of S-SSE slip patterns — an aspect that has remained largely unexplored.

Here, we analyze nearly two decades of GNSS data to quantify the slip contribution of S-SSEs and to investigate their temporal evolution. To resolve these small-amplitude, short-lived signals, we leverage the exceptional density of the GNSS network (>700 stations) by stacking time series from triplets of nearby stations, enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio. Using tremor and LFE timing to synchronize the detection, we measure offsets before and after each episode and infer local slip rates. By applying this approach across multiple successive time windows, which has not been done in Nankai or other subduction zones, we track how slip patterns evolve through time.

We find that S-SSEs release a significant fraction of accumulated slip within the tremor/LFEs zone (between 40 and 30%, which is consistent with the long-term coupling of 60%). Still, this contribution and the associated spatial slip pattern vary across different time periods. Our results reveal that S-SSE behavior is not stationary: the along-strike slip distribution and slip rates show systematic changes over multi-year timescales. We also observe that S-SSE slip occasionally extends to shallower depths, approaching the base of the seismogenic zone.

These spatio-temporal variations in slow slip provide new constraints on the evolution of interplate coupling and on how stress accumulation in the seismogenic zone may be modulated by deeper slow slip processes.

How to cite: Maubant, L., Itoh, Y., and Kato, A.:  Tracking short-term slow slip along Nankai with GNSS: temporal evolution of slip rate and interaction with the seismogenic zone , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3646, 2026.

X1.87
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EGU26-10951
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ECS
Johannes Gehrig, Ahyoung Ku, Laura Wallace, Spahr Webb, D. Randolph Watts, Ryota Hino, Yoshihiro Ito, Matt Wei, Neville Palmer, and Katie Jacobs

Over the last two decades, the importance of Slow Slip Events (SSEs) in the deformation and seismic cycle of subduction zones has become more widely recognized. Knowledge of the evolution and slip distribution during SSEs can provide key insights into processes that influence SSE occurrence and their relationship to seismic slip. However, the offshore nature of many SSEs makes them difficult to observe with onshore geodetic methods alone, necessitating the deployment of seafloor-geodetic instruments to detect seabed deformation.

The Hikurangi subduction zone offshore New Zealand is characterized by frequent, large SSEs, and previous experiments have shown that such events regularly produce up to a few centimetres of seabed uplift that is detectable using seafloor pressure data. We are presenting a first look on ocean bottom pressure data recovered from the most recent GONDOR deployment across the northern Hikurangi subduction zone. The 2022-2025 GONDOR project is the largest seafloor geodetic experiment to date at Hikurangi, with over 50 seafloor instruments deployed in a dense array with several kilometres spacing, of which 39 were fitted with Absolute Pressure Gauges (APG) to detect vertical displacement of the seabed. 13 of these instruments have self-calibrating A-0-A sensors, enabling mitigation of instrument drift from the pressure record. The deployment is collocated with an IODP CORK observatory, allowing for future ground truthing of the pressure data and includes two arrays of Direct-Path-Acoustic sensors, giving horizontal deformation information of SSEs. During the 2024/2025 period, at least three large SSEs have occurred beneath the array, one beneath the centre and one each beneath the northern and southern subarrays.

I will present preliminary results from our analysis of seafloor pressure data, using depth-matched reference sites to mitigate oceanographic noise. I will also outline a processing workflow for pressure data analysis, including improved drift-removal techniques that do not depend on prolonged periods of oceanographic calm and are robust to sensor vertical displacement during the initial deployment phase when drift is most rapid. Further, I will explore the advantages of interspersing A-0-A instruments with conventional APGs for more robust drift mitigation to enable resolution of SSE vertical displacement during the early deployment phase.

How to cite: Gehrig, J., Ku, A., Wallace, L., Webb, S., Watts, D. R., Hino, R., Ito, Y., Wei, M., Palmer, N., and Jacobs, K.: First look at seafloor geodetical pressure data acquired during a large 2024 Slow-Slip-Event at the Hikurangi Margin offshore New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10951, 2026.

X1.88
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EGU26-11523
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ECS
Yue Liu, Duo Li, Hongfeng Yang, Charles Williams, and Zhigang Shao

Shallow slow slip events (SSEs) within seismogenic zones have been increasingly reported to be related to subducted seamounts (Wang and Bilek, 2014; Vallée et al., 2013; Wallace et al., 2016; Yokota and Ishikawa, 2016). However, the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon is unclear. Slow slip events are commonly inferred to occur under high pore-pressure conditions, based on analyses of low-frequency seismic spectra and numerical simulations (Rogers and Dragert, 2003; Shelly et al., 2006; Liu and Rice, 2009; Li and Liu, 2016). Investigating the role of seamounts in alternating shallow SSEs and coseismic rupture propagation will provide important insights into long-term fault slip budgets. Here we conduct numerical simulations in the framework of rate-and-state dependent friction with the “aging” evolution law, in which a curved interface representing the subducted seamount is set in a velocity weakening zone on a two-dimensional subducted fault model. Our preliminary results suggest: 1) Slow slip events and slow aseismic creep can appear in the seamount leading area, where coseismic slip is suppressed; 2) the seamount can play a crucial role in stopping large rupture propagation when it is located at intermediate depths within the velocity-weakening zone; 3) irregular geometry will introduce diversity in long-term slip partitioning on the subduction fault regardless of constant velocity-weakening friction and consistently effective normal stress. This study will provide invaluable insights on understanding the interactions between large earthquakes and aseismic slip, as well as the influence of fault geometry such as a subducted seamount.

Reference:

  • Li, D., and Y. Liu (2016), Spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events in a nonplanar fault model for northern Cascadia subduction zone, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121, 6828–6845.
  • Liu, Y., and J. R. Rice (2009), Slow slip predictions based on granite and gabbro friction data compared to GPS measurements in northern Cascadia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114(B9).
  • Rogers, G., and H. Dragert (2003), Episodic Tremor and Slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: The Chatter of Silent Slip. Science, 300, 1942-1943.
  • Shelly, D., Beroza, G., Ide, S., et al. (2006), Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku, Japan, and their relationship to episodic tremor and slip. Nature, 442, 188–191.
  • Vallée, M., Nocquet, J. M., Battaglia, J., et al. (2013), Intense interface seismicity triggered by a shallow slow slip event in the Central Ecuador subduction zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 118(6), 2965-2981.
  • Wallace, L. M., Webb, S. C., Ito, Y., et al. (2016), Slow slip near the trench at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Science, 352(6286), 701-704.
  • Wang, K., and S. L. Bilek (2014), Invited review paper: Fault creep caused by subduction of rough seafloor relief. Tectonophysics, 610, 1-24.
  • Yokota, Y., and T. Ishikawa (2020), Shallow slow slip events along the Nankai Trough detected by GNSS-A. Science Advance, 6 (3): eaay5786.

 

 

How to cite: Liu, Y., Li, D., Yang, H., Williams, C., and Shao, Z.: Role of Subducted Seamounts in Earthquake Rupture and Aseismic Slip: Insights from Multi-Cycle Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11523, 2026.

X1.89
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EGU26-16342
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ECS
Abraham Diaz de leon, Isaias Bañales, and Yoshihiro Ito

The subduction zone in the Mexican Pacific comprises a complex tectonic environment of interacting convergent active margin plates. Along the Middle American Trench (MAT), the Cocos and Rivera plates subduct beneath the North American and Caribbean plates, generating an irregular distribution of seismicity due to variations in the subduction angle of the slab. The Guerrero Seismic Gap (GGap) is a ~140 km segment at the Cocos-North America plate boundary. Since 1911 there has been no record of a large subduction thrust earthquake in the NW portion of the GGap, and taking into account the seismic evolution and subduction dynamics, specialists see a possible scenario of a Mw ~8.2 earthquake in the area. Therefore, understanding the nature of the rupture process in the crust is a fundamental question of this study.

Gravity techniques are accurate methods to investigate the crustal configuration and define the structure in the subducting slab. In this project, data from the global satellite model of Sandwell et al., 2014, we intend to generate a model of the density distribution in the shallow crust in the GGap area. The shallow crust is of particular interest because lateral heterogeneity in the slab zone modifies subduction dynamics. These heterogeneities comprise seafloor structures (e.g., seamounts) and may be key to studying the seismogenic zone of the Mexican subduction and better assessing its risk. Some studies show how the bathymetric relief on the seafloor, when it enters subduction, modifies the mechanical properties at the interface between the subducting plate and the overriding plate. This arrangement can be an important factor because it can affect the distribution of large earthquakes.

Gravimetric inversion methods can solve subsurface mapping problems by determining the density and/or depth of the layers that comprise it. Here, we will use statistical methods of gravity inversion to relate the parameters (density) to the observed data. To do this, we will use a Bayesian approach, defining our likelihood functions, evaluating the forward map, and our prior function, smoothed using Markov Random Fields, which restricts the field values to their neighboring dependencies.

The objective of this work is to conduct a detailed analysis of the surface crust, its configuration, and its relationship with seismicity in the area, in order to improve understanding of subduction dynamics and seismic risk assessment.

How to cite: Diaz de leon, A., Bañales, I., and Ito, Y.: Modelling the shallow crustal structure of the Guerrero seismic gap from gravity data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16342, 2026.

X1.90
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EGU26-21784
Xiaoge Liu, Passarelli Luigi, Barreto Alejandra, Benedikt Ófeigsson, Qiang Xu, and Sigurjón Jónsson*

Oceanic transform faults (OTFs) accommodate a significant portion of global plate motions, yet the physical mechanisms governing their characteristically low seismic coupling and the initiation of earthquake swarms remain poorly understood. Here, we provide the first direct geodetic evidence of shallow slow slip events (SSEs) on an OTF. By leveraging the increase of seismic activity during earthquake swarms as temporal constraints on high-resolution, land-based continuous GNSS data from near the just-offshore Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) in North Iceland, we utilized a signal-stacking strategy to isolate ultra-slow transients from stochastic noise. This approach detected SSEs that are several weeks in duration and with an average moment magnitude of Mw 5.34, systematically preceding the seismic swarms. The marked spatial complementarity between SSEs and swarms, combined with their temporal synchronicity, seem to indicate that the aseismic transients act as a mechanical trigger for the swarm-like activity along the western portion of HFF. The pronounced contrast between the weakly coupled western segment of the HFF—characterized by concurrent SSEs and earthquake swarms—and the strongly coupled eastern segment, which lacks moderate to large earthquake clusters, reveals a fundamental along-strike heterogeneity in fault behavior. The evidence of systematic aseismic slip release along the HFF accompanying swarm activity indicates that the seismic moment deficit of OTFs can be reconciled by aseismic slip transients. Our results corroborate that OTFs are complex faults where rheological and geometrical segmentation result in a complex interplay of slow and fast slip release.

Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge Baptiste Rousset and Estelle Neyrinck for generously sharing their geodetic matched filter code for this analysis.

How to cite: Liu, X., Luigi, P., Alejandra, B., Ófeigsson, B., Xu, Q., and Jónsson*, S.: First direct geodetic evidence of precursory shallow slow-slip associated with seismic swarms on oceanic transform faults, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21784, 2026.

X1.91
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EGU26-16699
Marco Maria Scuderi, Federico Pignalberi, Giacomo Mastella, Carolina Giorgetti, and Chris Marone

Understanding the physical controls on the transition between slow and fast earthquakes remains a fundamental challenge in earthquake physics. Here we show, through laboratory experiments on granular quartz gouge simulating natural fault zones, that both slow and fast slip can emerge on the same fault under identical stress conditions. The transition between slip modes is governed by the elastodynamic interaction between the fault and its surroundings. By systematically varying system stiffness at constant normal stress, we observe a continuous spectrum of slip behavior from stable sliding to slow events and ultimately fast rupture. Continuous acoustic monitoring reveals distinct seismic signatures: slow slip produces swarms of small events, while fast slip generates high-amplitude energy bursts. Continuous scaling of breakdown work with seismic moment supports a unified physical mechanism. Moment-duration scaling highlights a key transition in energy partitioning: in slow events, acoustic energy accounts for a minor portion of slip duration, whereas in fast events it contributes a much larger portion, indicating a shift in how seismic energy is radiated across slip modes. These findings suggest that slow and fast earthquakes are not distinct phenomena but reflect end-members of a fault slip continuum.

How to cite: Scuderi, M. M., Pignalberi, F., Mastella, G., Giorgetti, C., and Marone, C.: A Continuum of Laboratory Fault Slip Reveals Distinct Seismic Energy Partitioning from Slow to Fast Slip, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16699, 2026.

X1.92
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EGU26-10077
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ECS
Ricarda M. Wache, Gian Maria Bocchini, Rebecca M. Harrington, Pia Victor, Yajing Liu, and Meng "Matt" Wei

The Atacama Fault System is located in the northern Chilean subduction forearc region and hosts a complex system of trench-parallel faults with mapped surface ruptures. Previous work based on continuous monitoring of aseismic fault slip by the IPOC Creepmeter Array over the last ~15 years has shown that the Chomache, Cerro Fortuna, Salar del Carmen, and Mejillones Faults host Sudden Displacement Events (SDEs) that are often triggered by passing seismic waves, showing a clear temporal correlation between SDE signals and local, as well as teleseismic, earthquakes. Here we present a new study using data from two creepmeter sites that are instrumented with two collocated broadband seismometers to investigate the correlation between SDEs, the ground motions of preceding earthquakes, and the consistency of transient stress changes with observed deformation inferred from the creepmeter time series.

Our analysis reveals two primary observations. First, we identify a seasonal trend in the polarity of SDEs, suggesting modulation of the system response over the annual cycle. Second, we observe a dependency between the peak ground velocity (PGV) of the preceding earthquakes recorded by the collocated seismometers and SDE occurrence. We observe an absence of SDEs below a PGV threshold of approximately 0.07–0.15 cm/s that suggests that the triggering mechanism is at least partly amplitude-controlled.

Based on the apparent seasonal polarity changes and dependence on ground shaking, we will present results that test whether SDEs reflect tectonic fault slip processes or a non-tectonic, seasonally modulated response of near-surface sediments to dynamic triggering. We will test the hypothesis using the back azimuth of triggering seismic waves to resolve the dynamic stresses imposed on the well-constrained geometry of the monitored fault planes in comparison to the volumetric changes in the surrounding fault zone. This study will contribute to a deeper understanding of dynamic triggering and the underlying processes that control fault behavior in forearc settings.

How to cite: Wache, R. M., Bocchini, G. M., Harrington, R. M., Victor, P., Liu, Y., and Wei, M. ".: Constraining mechanisms for dynamically triggered Sudden Displacement Events (SDEs) in the northern Chilean Subduction Forearc using collocated creepmeter and broadband seismic data, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10077, 2026.

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